Coming Economic Meltdown

[Nature Boy 2.0 8,370]

Thoughts and opinions

 

I truly believe (opinion)  there is a coming  economic/supply chain meltdown coming the likes of which we have not seen since 1929

 

We just got our next allocation for Cars. Nov/Dec approximately

 

 For the whole Southeast district ,  4 Camrys ,No RAV4, No Corolla . Normal allocation is about 1500 Camrys This is Florida, Alabama, Georgia, South Carolina and North Carolina.  It's not just Chips. It's many components  Those are our top 3 sellers. It's not just Toyota which is probably in better shape than other Car makers . Used car prices are are up 30-40 % in some cases.  Most of you understand how one thing affects another in the economy. I am just spotlighting the car industry because I have 1st hand knowledge  Just the car industry in a 1.1 trillion dollar driver in our economy . Even repair parts are becoming increasingly scarce and long wait times.

 

 

 

 

Can you imagine (for  example) the airline industry can't get repair parts. Tires etc. I read somewhere Firestone is having to shut down some plants due to rubber shortages. 

 

Our snack bar is out of sausage dogs currently, our vendor cant get them right now. 

 

Have you bought Bacon lately ? Jesus 

 

I see some news stories saying buy Christmas now because by  November supplies are going to be toast. 

 

Folks I think this thing is going to get nasty. Once again this is just my opinion.  It may not be a total meltdown but it's about to get real

 

 

 

 

 

 

[LIBrty4all 3,749]

China having blackouts, shipping ports backed up all over the US, Biden... I agree with you.  

[Boiler 45,516]

You are quite right, the bakery in the local supermarket was out of freshly baked bread, never seen that before. No ingredients.

 

The increase in heating costs this winter are going to be a major shock this winter.

 

To be clear this global issue, a lot of things brewing coming to a head. We just need something happening in the Middle East, China and Taiwan and then watch out.

 

https://www.cnn.com/2021/10/01/business/auto-sales-third-quarter/index.html

 

New car sales plunged over the last three months in the United States despite strong demand, as the shortage of computer chips and other supply chain issues caused shutdowns at auto factories and choked off the supply of vehicles.

General Motors reported sales fell a third from a year-ago last quarter, and they were off 40% from the same quarter of 2019 before the pandemic roiled the car market. The company pointed to semiconductor supply chain disruptions and historically low inventories.

The auto industry has been dealing with a shortage of computer chips needed to build cars for more than a year. GM (GM) said it expects the situation will improve in the final three months of 2021, but earlier this year automakers had hoped things would have improved by this point. Instead, GM has been forced to temporarily shut production of most of its North American plants.

[jg121783 3,915]

4 hours ago, Nature Boy 2.0 said:

Thoughts and opinions

 

I truly believe (opinion)  there is a coming  economic/supply chain meltdown coming the likes of which we have not seen since 1929

 

We just got our next allocation for Cars. Nov/Dec approximately

 

 For the whole Southeast district ,  4 Camrys ,No RAV4, No Corolla . Normal allocation is about 1500 Camrys This is Florida, Alabama, Georgia, South Carolina and North Carolina.  It's not just Chips. It's many components  Those are our top 3 sellers. It's not just Toyota which is probably in better shape than other Car makers . Used car prices are are up 30-40 % in some cases.  Most of you understand how one thing affects another in the economy. I am just spotlighting the car industry because I have 1st hand knowledge  Just the car industry in a 1.1 trillion dollar driver in our economy . Even repair parts are becoming increasingly scarce and long wait times.

 

 

 

 

Can you imagine (for  example) the airline industry can't get repair parts. Tires etc. I read somewhere Firestone is having to shut down some plants due to rubber shortages. 

 

Our snack bar is out of sausage dogs currently, our vendor cant get them right now. 

 

Have you bought Bacon lately ? Jesus 

 

I see some news stories saying buy Christmas now because by  November supplies are going to be toast. 

 

Folks I think this thing is going to get nasty. Once again this is just my opinion.  It may not be a total meltdown but it's about to get real

 

 

 

 

 

 

Just bought a 2017 Outback with low miles on it back in March. The dealership keeps offering to buy it back from me for a few grand more than I originally paid for it. I have never seen a situation where a used car goes up in value after you buy it. I would take them up on the offer but I wouldn't be able to find anything else to drive. The dealership I bought it from has a half empty lot now where as back in March they had a full lot.

[Nature Boy 2.0 8,370]

3 minutes ago, jg121783 said:

Just bought a 2017 Outback with low miles on it back in March. The dealership keeps offering to buy it back from me for a few grand more than I originally paid for it. I have never seen a situation where a used car goes up in value after you buy it. I would take them up on the offer but I wouldn't be able to find anything else to drive. The dealership I bought it from has a half empty lot now where as back in March they had a full lot.

Not sure there has ever been a time in history new cars have appreciated.  Subaru makes a solid car for what it's worth.  Respected in the industry. 

 

I could sell my 2021 limited Tundra for about 6 k more than I paid for it new several months back.

[jg121783 3,915]

2 minutes ago, Nature Boy 2.0 said:

Not sure there has ever been a time in history new cars have appreciated.  Subaru makes a solid car for what it's worth.  Respected in the industry. 

 

I could sell my 2021 limited Tundra for about 6 k more than I paid for it new several months back.

I had a high milage 2000 Outback that I liked that the engine finally gave out on so the wife and I decided its time to get something newer and we went with a newer Outback. When my wife's car goes on her or we decide to get rid if it she wants to get a Crosstrek. It's crazy that the dealership is offering me almost what that car cost new even though its 4 + years old. I have also heard in normal economic times Subarus hold their resale value pretty well (though they don't go up in value).

[LIBrty4all 3,749]

2 hours ago, Boiler said:

You are quite right, the bakery in the local supermarket was out of freshly baked bread, never seen that before. No ingredients.

 

The increase in heating costs this winter are going to be a major shock this winter.

 

To be clear this global issue, a lot of things brewing coming to a head. We just need something happening in the Middle East, China and Taiwan and then watch out.

 

https://www.cnn.com/2021/10/01/business/auto-sales-third-quarter/index.html

 

New car sales plunged over the last three months in the United States despite strong demand, as the shortage of computer chips and other supply chain issues caused shutdowns at auto factories and choked off the supply of vehicles.

General Motors reported sales fell a third from a year-ago last quarter, and they were off 40% from the same quarter of 2019 before the pandemic roiled the car market. The company pointed to semiconductor supply chain disruptions and historically low inventories.

The auto industry has been dealing with a shortage of computer chips needed to build cars for more than a year. GM (GM) said it expects the situation will improve in the final three months of 2021, but earlier this year automakers had hoped things would have improved by this point. Instead, GM has been forced to temporarily shut production of most of its North American plants.

Add to all of this the impending disaster the illegal "vaccine mandate" is going to cause, and we have a potential record-setting event looking us in the face.

[Nature Boy 2.0 8,370]

33 minutes ago, jg121783 said:

I had a high milage 2000 Outback that I liked that the engine finally gave out on so the wife and I decided its time to get something newer and we went with a newer Outback. When my wife's car goes on her or we decide to get rid if it she wants to get a Crosstrek. It's crazy that the dealership is offering me almost what that car cost new even though its 4 + years old. I have also heard in normal economic times Subarus hold their resale value pretty well (though they don't go up in value).

They do. Right up there with Toyota, lexus and oddly enough the Jeep wrangler.

26 minutes ago, LIBrty4all said:

Add to all of this the impending disaster the illegal "vaccine mandate" is going to cause, and we have a potential record-setting event looking us in the face.

You need to stomp on the floor. Your record needle is stuck.

[TBoneTX 45,289]

I saw someone wearing a T-shirt that said, "[Bleep] Joe Biden, and [bleep] you for voting for him."

Two people gave him a thumbs-up as I watched.

 

The Elites are out of control.

[Neonred 3,562]

21 hours ago, Nature Boy 2.0 said:

 

 

We just got our next allocation for Cars. Nov/Dec approximately

 

 For the whole Southeast district ,  4 Camrys ,No RAV4, No Corolla . Normal allocation is about 1500 Camrys This is Florida, Alabama, Georgia, South Carolina and North Carolina.  It's not just Chips. It's many components  Those are our top 3 sellers. It's not just Toyota which is probably in better shape than other Car makers . Used car prices are are up 30-40 % in some cases.  Most of you understand how one thing affects another in the economy. I am just spotlighting the car industry because I have 1st hand knowledge  Just the car industry in a 1.1 trillion dollar driver in our economy . Even repair parts are becoming increasingly scarce and long wait times.

 

 

My son that was living in Portland OR (now on his way back "home") realized he needed a larger vehicle for the cross country trip with 2 small kids, dog, and all the gear, so 3 or 4 months ago or so they started looking for a larger SUV.  They were interested in the Kia Telluride but didn't like how much extra the dealer wanted.  They ended up ordering the new Jeep Grand Cherokee L (not my choice).  I told him not to expect it to arrive in time for his move, but sure enough he had it very quickly.  Dealer gave him a good deal with some discounts.  Seems a customer order gets some priority.  

 

Last month he ordered a Tacoma from a dealer here in FL (kid must have more money than I know about).  Wonder how long that one will take as I saw recently Toyota announced a 40% reduction in car and truck production until things turn around.

[Dashinka 24,498]

Just think what will happen if Biden and the regressive Dems get their massive spending bills and tax increases passed.

[Nature Boy 2.0 8,370]

1 hour ago, Neonred said:

My son that was living in Portland OR (now on his way back "home") realized he needed a larger vehicle for the cross country trip with 2 small kids, dog, and all the gear, so 3 or 4 months ago or so they started looking for a larger SUV.  They were interested in the Kia Telluride but didn't like how much extra the dealer wanted.  They ended up ordering the new Jeep Grand Cherokee L (not my choice).  I told him not to expect it to arrive in time for his move, but sure enough he had it very quickly.  Dealer gave him a good deal with some discounts.  Seems a customer order gets some priority.  

 

Last month he ordered a Tacoma from a dealer here in FL (kid must have more money than I know about).  Wonder how long that one will take as I saw recently Toyota announced a 40% reduction in car and truck production until things turn around.

Toyota doesn't really order. They sell what is already allocated. Sometimes they swap what is coming with other dealers. If they took a deposit it means it is already in production or in transit with that particular color and options. Should be no more than 30 days out. Any questions he has hit me up. Tell him to use car loan calculator to make sure they are not packing extra products.  Gap warranty into his payment. Assuming he is financing 

[jg121783 3,915]

6 hours ago, TBoneTX said:

I saw someone wearing a T-shirt that said, "[Bleep] Joe Biden, and [bleep] you for voting for him."

Two people gave him a thumbs-up as I watched.

 

The Elites are out of control.

A guy in the next town over started selling flags with slogans like "#$&% Biden" and "Trump 2024" a couple days ago. Every time I drive by there is a line of people buying them. I want to buy the "@#&% Biden" flag and put it up at our house but my wife wont let me. It's not that she doesn't feel the same way. She is just afraid of repercussions from our leftist neighbors.

 

1 hour ago, Dashinka said:

Just think what will happen if Biden and the regressive Dems get their massive spending bills and tax increases passed.

Combined with all the people who will be leaving their jobs if Biden's disastrous vaccine mandate holds up to court scrutiny it will mean economic collapse. 

Edited October 2, 2021 by jg121783

[Dashinka 24,498]

2 minutes ago, jg121783 said:

A guy in the next town over started selling flags with slogans like "#$&% Biden" and "Trump 2024" a couple days ago. Every time I drive by there is a line of people buying them. I want to buy the "@#&% Biden" flag and put it up at our house but my wife wont let me. It's not that she doesn't feel the same way. She is just afraid of repercussions from our leftist neighbors.

 

Combined with all the people who will be leaving their jobs if Biden's disastrous vaccine mandate holds up to court scrutiny it will mean economic collapse. 

Saw quite a few Trump 2024 billboards and bumper stickers here in the heartland during our drive and here in Utah.  We are seeing what happens when the Leftist coasts and political elite decide elections.

[jg121783 3,915]

18 minutes ago, Dashinka said:

We are seeing what happens when the Leftist coasts and political elite decide elections.

You mean when people who stuff ballot boxes decide elections.