August 2021 K1 Filers - I129F

[fenerbahce1907 496]

9 hours ago, fenerbahce1907 said:

Monday's Update

 

118500: 24 Approvals (24 new / 0 in progress)
119000: 20 Approvals (20 new / 0 in progress)
119500: 13 Approvals (13 new / 0 in progress)
122500: 1 Expedite(Denied: 1) (1 new / 0 in progress)
123000: 1 Approval (1 new / 0 in progress)
127000: 1 Expedite(Denied: 1) (1 new / 0 in progress)
130000: 1 Expedite(Denied: 1) (1 new / 0 in progress)
10/03/22: 61 Total Updates: 58 Approvals, 3 Expedites(Denied: 3)

 

There is one more approval and rfes ! 59 Approvals and 1 RFEs , 63 Total. they updated lately, sorry guys!
 

[gooblue 50]

8 hours ago, EdwinShinobi said:

Wow.

 

With the numbers from May / June / July and August, they are doing about 250 cases today.

 

Incredible.

 

Hope they keep this up.

hope it continues to increase, still think about 400+ Is needed to dent the backlog

[Nikobe 129]

18 minutes ago, gooblue said:

hope it continues to increase, still think about 400+ Is needed to dent the backlog

Spike to 8000 cases processed quarterly (daily 125) --> 6.3 quarters processing

Spike to 10000 cases processed quarterly (daily 157) --> 5 quarters processing

Spike to 15000 cases processed quarterly (daily 234) --> 3.3 quarters processing

 

400 would be ~ 26,000 cases on a quarterly basis in comparison to 12,000 cases received per quarter - this would cut the entire backlog to half (currently ~50,000 + 24,000 (2 quarters) = 74,000 - 52,000 = 22,000) within 2 quarters and would decrease processing time to less than 6 months. I doubt that this is realistic, the backlog reduction will be a slow process with ups and downs.

 

Btw, the above is simplified heavily.

[gooblue 50]

9 minutes ago, Nikobe said:

Spike to 8000 cases processed quarterly (daily 125) --> 6.3 quarters processing

Spike to 10000 cases processed quarterly (daily 157) --> 5 quarters processing

Spike to 15000 cases processed quarterly (daily 234) --> 3.3 quarters processing

 

400 would be ~ 26,000 cases on a quarterly basis in comparison to 12,000 cases received per quarter - this would cut the entire backlog to half (currently ~50,000 + 24,000 (2 quarters) = 74,000 - 52,000 = 22,000) within 2 quarters and would decrease processing time to less than 6 months. I doubt that this is realistic, the backlog reduction will be a slow process with ups and downs.

 

Btw, the above is simplified heavily.

Fair enough, if you're treating it like cases closed, but I was more thinking how before as many of half the cases would often just be rfes, so not new cases processed even if number seemed high. (Although oddly enough today way more Approvals then rfes... I wonder if the reason for so many rfes before was administrative decision or something)

[Nikobe 129]

Just now, gooblue said:

Fair enough, if you're treating it like cases closed, but I was more thinking how before as many of half the cases would often just be rfes, so not new cases processed even if number seemed high. (Although oddly enough today way more Approvals then rfes... I wonder if the reason for so many rfes before was administrative decision or something)

That's where I am frustrated with the process as well. Zero transparency as literally all people can do is run self-made scripts to check numbers. 400 cases touched per day would probably imply like a minimum of 300 approvals - that would be helpful.

[gooblue 50]

Just now, Nikobe said:

That's where I am frustrated with the process as well. Zero transparency as literally all people can do is run self-made scripts to check numbers. 400 cases touched per day would probably imply like a minimum of 300 approvals - that would be helpful.

Yea I agree. Do you think there won't be another bump in cases touched this quarter?(ie more people moved on to help)

[Mar_ia 17]

10 hours ago, biscoito1r said:

Sorry to be a party pooper but as it has been stated before, there are overlapping number with July and August. Also most of the Saturday numbers are updated on Monday.

Yes you are a party pooper! Just kidding 😂😂😂😂. Of course, how everyone wish they process it faster than what they are doing now. However, reality check is, we don't have control on such things, and based from my country where they stopped K1 visa processing, this is better news rather than nothing at all.

[Nikobe 129]

57 minutes ago, gooblue said:

Yea I agree. Do you think there won't be another bump in cases touched this quarter?(ie more people moved on to help)

Honestly, if you ask ten people on this forum, there will be ten different answers ranging from doom (26 months+ processing next year) to boom.

 

I do think that there will be improvement and that the past trends are no indication of the future. My attorney's opinion is that USCIS will be at 10+ months processing until March with improvement due to beginning of fiscal year (less pressure on employment based visas). Yet - who knows? There is zero certainty around all these claims and how important the K1 goal from March is to the USCIS (they seemingly focus on introduction of premium processing for everything surrounding work visas).

[Lynxyonok 316]

2 hours ago, gooblue said:

Yea I agree. Do you think there won't be another bump in cases touched this quarter?(ie more people moved on to help)

It's a new fiscal year, so any visa quotes already filled in FY22 are going to be addressed again. If anything, we're due for a small slowdown.

 

I'm also mildly concerned with severe (2x) spike in non-spousal I-129Fs processed. We're in recession and hiring like crazy.

[Nikobe 129]

2 minutes ago, Lynxyonok said:

It's a new fiscal year, so any visa quotes already filled in FY22 are going to be addressed again. If anything, we're due for a small slowdown.

 

I'm also mildly concerned with severe (2x) spike in non-spousal I-129Fs processed. We're in recession and hiring like crazy.

@gooblue: Here is one of the "doomers" if you are interested.

 

[Lynxyonok 316]

46 minutes ago, Nikobe said:

There is zero certainty around all these claims and how important the K1 goal from March is to the USCIS (they seemingly focus on introduction of premium processing for everything surrounding work visas).

Precisely.

 

They committed to improving I-129 employment visa processing.

They didn't say a word about I-129F spousal visas.

 

Arkansas, Cali, Both Carolinas, Connecticutt, Delaware, Hawaii, Jersey, Minnesota, Tennessee, Texas:

 

Your senators are on the Immigration committee. Just saying.

 

https://www.judiciary.senate.gov/about/subcommittees/subcommittee-on-border-security-and-immigration

[gooblue 50]

1 minute ago, Nikobe said:

@gooblue: Here is one of the "doomers" if you are interested.

 

I guess we will know the true numbers as this week progresses, and as october continues

[Nikobe 129]

Just now, Lynxyonok said:

Precisely.

 

They committed to improving I-129 employment visa processing.

They didn't say a word about I-129F spousal visas.

 

Arkansas, Cali, Both Carolinas, Connecticutt, Delaware, Hawaii, Jersey, Minnesota, Tennessee, Texas:

 

Your senators are on the Immigration committee. Just saying.

 

https://www.judiciary.senate.gov/about/subcommittees/subcommittee-on-border-security-and-immigration

I appreciate your comments. We two keep a good balance between optimism and pessimism. 😃

[Lynxyonok 316]

1 hour ago, Mar_ia said:

Yes you are a party pooper! Just kidding 😂😂😂😂. Of course, how everyone wish they process it faster than what they are doing now. However, reality check is, we don't have control on such things, and based from my country where they stopped K1 visa processing, this is better news rather than nothing at all.

Your petitioner's senator may. Have him write to Ted Cruz. 😛

[Lynxyonok 316]

2 minutes ago, Nikobe said:

I appreciate your comments. We two keep a good balance between optimism and pessimism. 😃