IR-1/CR-1 Montreal DQ'd private message group goes public part 3

[MJ & FEK 44]

7 hours ago, exp said:

What do you mean with this?

Of course, the interview will be there.

 

I think officially you are supposed to go to the embassy where you live.

They ask you for address and phone number but if you are citizen/have ties to that country that shouldn't be  a big deal.

I just booked my flight as soon as I got the interview date.

 

 

 

 

 

holy cow, we just looked it up, it indeed seems WAY faster. we are going to seriously consider this. what does this mean in terms of work though? Did you have issues continuing to work in Canada, since changing your "residence" to your home country?

Edited August 14, 2021 by MJ & FEK

[DGF 730]

10 hours ago, exp said:

Thanks.

 

It was very easy.

Just send a message through AskNVC and told them I request to change the interview location.

To avoid any hassles, I said "[...] transfer to my home country" and added my family's phone number and address.

They literally changed it within two days.

Twelve days later I had my interview letter.

Thank you so much for sharing! Did you need to get a new police certificate for the country you switched your interview to?

[From_CAN_2_US 1,106]

12 hours ago, exp said:

I never thought I'd be so bad in Canada, yeah.

There are USCIS statistics for each consulate though. Check it out first and look up Morocco to make sure.

 

 

 

 

Thanks for all the advice.

 

Sorry, but could you share a link to these USCIS statistics. I wasn’t able to locate it with a Google search.

 

Or do you mean this? I was aware of this, but was looking for something that indicates either what DQ dates they are currently processing or the time between DQ and interview. 

https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/legal/visa-law0/visa-statistics/immigrant-visa-statistics/monthly-immigrant-visa-
issuances.html

Edited August 14, 2021 by From_CAN_2_US

[From_CAN_2_US 1,106]

Does anyone know if there is a spreadsheet like ours for London Consulate? If London has started issuing letters to 2021 applicants, I wanted to analyse how they got there, considering they were not much ahead of Montreal a couple of months ago. Is it because they sailed through Nov and Dec due to fewer DQs in those months. 
 

We are hypothesising there maybe fewer DQs in Nov and Dec due to pandemic reasons, and if that is the case, it could be reflected across the world. Looking at London’s statistics since they are ahead could help us predict what we will see happening in Montreal.

 

@Kai G. Llewellyn @Twiz&Toz

[TedsGirl 192]

33 minutes ago, From_CAN_2_US said:

Does anyone know if there is a spreadsheet like ours for London Consulate? If London has started issuing letters to 2021 applicants, I wanted to analyse how they got there, considering they were not much ahead of Montreal a couple of months ago. Is it because they sailed through Nov and Dec due to fewer DQs in those months. 
 

We are hypothesising there maybe fewer DQs in Nov and Dec due to pandemic reasons, and if that is the case, it could be reflected across the world. Looking at London’s statistics since they are ahead could help us predict what we will see happening in Montreal.

 

@Kai G. Llewellyn @Twiz&Toz

-lurk in-

 

Hello, I am not sure of a spreadsheet on the London forum however I’ve been lurking here and there since I’m both a Canadian PR with UK citizenship. 
 

All I can state is over the past few days the London US Embassy has issued ILs for those with DQ dates from April, May and some dates in the month of June 2021. Incredible really. 
 

From reading the entire thread I believe there was only one or two windows of time during the pandemic (February I think, May and June) when they didn’t have interviews. London has maintained as best as they can to hold as many interviews as they can when they’re operating. 

 

All the best to you! 
 

-lurk out-

Edited August 14, 2021 by TedsGirl
correct no interview months

[Twiz&Toz 240]

2 hours ago, From_CAN_2_US said:

Does anyone know if there is a spreadsheet like ours for London Consulate? If London has started issuing letters to 2021 applicants, I wanted to analyse how they got there, considering they were not much ahead of Montreal a couple of months ago. Is it because they sailed through Nov and Dec due to fewer DQs in those months. 
 

We are hypothesising there maybe fewer DQs in Nov and Dec due to pandemic reasons, and if that is the case, it could be reflected across the world. Looking at London’s statistics since they are ahead could help us predict what we will see happening in Montreal.

 

@Kai G. Llewellyn @Twiz&Toz

No I was just checking out ppls Dq dates over on there thread. I think they also have way more staff then we do. Fingers crossed we get a bit of a speed up.

[alphabetagamma 102]

Hey Guys. Here are my two cents on the Montreal situation. Please feel free to share your views. 

Below is IR1+CR1 IL's count before pandemic. I assume this was the same trend before as I haven't gone beyond October data.

Oct-19     90
Nov-19    100
Dec-19    105
Jan-20    80
Feb-20    120
Mar-20    103

 

What I see here is an average of 100. And I understand that there was a 5 month delay from DQ to IL till this point.

 

Now let's take the data post covid. Last Column is the backlog. Basically what I did here is for each month I have subtracted the average 100 expected IL's from the actual IL and keep on adding the backlog.

Oct-19	90
Nov-19	100
Dec-19	105
Jan-20	80
Feb-20	120
Mar-20	103
Apr-20	3	-97
May-20	0	-197
Jun-20	3	-294
Jul-20	11	-383
Aug-20	34	-449
Sep-20	101	-448
Oct-20	106	-442
Nov-20	76	-466
Dec-20	162	-404
Jan-21	242	-262
Feb-21	258	-104
Mar-21	316	112
Apr-21	304	316
May-21	125	341
Jun-21	47	288

 

As you see till Nov 20, the backlog was -466. then Montreal did 6 above average months (Mar and Apr being top notch) and now we are actually above 3 months of initial backlog. 

So my take from here is Montreal is doing pretty good now. They are already above the average processing IL's. 

The big unknown is how many people actually moved to DQ during this phase (what was the pre and post pandemic approval time from I-130 approved to DQ).

If we have those stats available, we might be able to come to a good prediction.

What do you guys think?

[From_CAN_2_US 1,106]

28 minutes ago, alphabetagamma said:

Hey Guys. Here are my two cents on the Montreal situation. Please feel free to share your views. 

Below is IR1+CR1 IL's count before pandemic. I assume this was the same trend before as I haven't gone beyond October data.

Oct-19     90
Nov-19    100
Dec-19    105
Jan-20    80
Feb-20    120
Mar-20    103

 

What I see here is an average of 100. And I understand that there was a 5 month delay from DQ to IL till this point.

 

Now let's take the data post covid. Last Column is the backlog. Basically what I did here is for each month I have subtracted the average 100 expected IL's from the actual IL and keep on adding the backlog.

Oct-19	90
Nov-19	100
Dec-19	105
Jan-20	80
Feb-20	120
Mar-20	103
Apr-20	3	-97
May-20	0	-197
Jun-20	3	-294
Jul-20	11	-383
Aug-20	34	-449
Sep-20	101	-448
Oct-20	106	-442
Nov-20	76	-466
Dec-20	162	-404
Jan-21	242	-262
Feb-21	258	-104
Mar-21	316	112
Apr-21	304	316
May-21	125	341
Jun-21	47	288

 

As you see till Nov 20, the backlog was -466. then Montreal did 6 above average months (Mar and Apr being top notch) and now we are actually above 3 months of initial backlog. 

So my take from here is Montreal is doing pretty good now. They are already above the average processing IL's. 

The big unknown is how many people actually moved to DQ during this phase (what was the pre and post pandemic approval time from I-130 approved to DQ).

If we have those stats available, we might be able to come to a good prediction.

What do you guys think?

I think you are absolutely right, and aligns with what I have been saying in the last 2 months - 

 

Montreal is not NOT interviewing fewer IR1/CR1 applicants than before the pandemic. The category is NOT being ignored. In fact they pushed IR1/CR1 heavily for 4/5 months when they interviewed up to 3 times more than the average 100 applicants per month. There was one month that they interviewed fewer than 100, but considering how hard they pushed for 4-5 that was a Very minor Setback.

 

Despite all of this however, the wait times IS increasing, and we are seeing that average 100 applicants per month cover only 12/13 days of DQs.

 

What is clear from this is that the number of DQs per month has increased by a LOT.... atleast twice the number per month compared to pre-pandemic.

 

Meanwhile Montreal appears to have stopped pushing IR1/CR1 and maintaining the original 100 interviews per month now. 
 

What we do not know, is how many DQs are there for Nov, Dec, Jan, Feb, Mar, Apr, May, June and July. If the DQs in these months is a lot fewer than the last several months, than Montreal will Do well in cutting down the wait time or atleast maintaining it. If not, the wait time WILL increase.

 

What you have demonstrated is exactly what is being shown in the following link, I shared about 1/2 months ago. The backlog should be reducing assuming same number of DQs per month. But it is not reducing. So obviously, there are more DQs per month now.

http://visawhen.com/consulates/montreal/cr1ir1

Edited August 14, 2021 by From_CAN_2_US

[From_CAN_2_US 1,106]

1 minute ago, From_CAN_2_US said:

I think you are absolutely right, and aligns with what I have been saying in the last 2 months - 

 

Montreal is not NOT interviewing fewer IR1/CR1 applicants than before the pandemic. The category is NOT being ignored. In fact they pushed IR1/CR1 heavily for 4/5 months when they interviewed up to 3 times more than the average 100 applicants per month. There was one month that they interviewed fewer than 100, but considering how hard they pushed for 4-5 that was a Very minor Setback.

 

Despite all of this however, the wait times IS increasing, and we are seeing that average 100 applicants per month cover only 12/13 days of DQs.

 

What is clear from this is that the number of DQs per month has increased by a LOT.... atleast twice the number per month compared to pre-pandemic.

 

Meanwhile Montreal appears to have stopped pushing IR1/CR1 and maintaining the original 100 interviews per month now. 
 

What we do not know, is how many DQs are there for Nov, Dec, Jan, Feb, Mar, Apr, May, June and July. If the DQs in these months is a lot fewer than the last several months, than Montreal will Do well in cutting down the wait time or atleast maintaining it. If not, the wait time WILL increase.

 

What you have demonstrated is exactly what is being shown in the following link. The backlog should be reducing assuming same number of DQs per month. But it is not reducing. So obviously, there are more DQs per month now.

http://visawhen.com/consulates/montreal/cr1ir1

Basically this captures is

 

 “Before 2020 March, Montreal issued 108.6CR1/IR1 visas per month on average. If we naively assume that the number of visa applications didn’t change during COVID, they are now 1.9 months ahead ofexpectations.”

 

 

 

 

 

Edited August 14, 2021 by From_CAN_2_US

[alphabetagamma 102]

5 minutes ago, From_CAN_2_US said:

Basically this captures is

 

 “Before 2020 March, Montreal issued 108.6CR1/IR1 visas per month on average. If we naively assume that the number of visa applications didn’t change during COVID, they are now 1.9 months ahead ofexpectations.”

 

 

 

 

 

Wow. Somebody already did the math haha. Good to know. Yes, clearly the DQ have increased a lot and that is a big unknwon. I'm very hopeful that we might see things speeding up for us. Next 2 months IL's will give a good picture. 

 

Edited August 14, 2021 by alphabetagamma
incorrect quote

[Twiz&Toz 240]

10 minutes ago, From_CAN_2_US said:

I think you are absolutely right, and aligns with what I have been saying in the last 2 months - 

 

Montreal is not NOT interviewing fewer IR1/CR1 applicants than before the pandemic. The category is NOT being ignored. In fact they pushed IR1/CR1 heavily for 4/5 months when they interviewed up to 3 times more than the average 100 applicants per month. There was one month that they interviewed fewer than 100, but considering how hard they pushed for 4-5 that was a Very minor Setback.

 

Despite all of this however, the wait times IS increasing, and we are seeing that average 100 applicants per month cover only 12/13 days of DQs.

 

What is clear from this is that the number of DQs per month has increased by a LOT.... atleast twice the number per month compared to pre-pandemic.

 

Meanwhile Montreal appears to have stopped pushing IR1/CR1 and maintaining the original 100 interviews per month now. 
 

What we do not know, is how many DQs are there for Nov, Dec, Jan, Feb, Mar, Apr, May, June and July. If the DQs in these months is a lot fewer than the last several months, than Montreal will Do well in cutting down the wait time or atleast maintaining it. If not, the wait time WILL increase.

 

What you have demonstrated is exactly what is being shown in the following link, I shared about 1/2 months ago. The backlog should be reducing assuming same number of DQs per month. But it is not reducing. So obviously, there are more DQs per month now.

http://visawhen.com/consulates/montreal/cr1ir1

2020 also had the big i130 shift as well. Cases from Cali and Nebraska got sent to all the faster areas. I’m guessing this is why we are seeing a big jump in cases. Now I’m not 100% on this I’m just speculating but when the covid visa ban came into play I think they may have looked less at other visas and just focused on family based. All we can do now was wait and pray they hire more staff. I’m sure the current staff is prob thinking the same thing lol. I’m due time we all will be walking out of consulate trying to hold back the tears and the happy dance. I’m sure the ppl in line waiting to get it will understand when u are skipping out the door.

[From_CAN_2_US 1,106]

1 hour ago, Twiz&Toz said:

2020 also had the big i130 shift as well. Cases from Cali and Nebraska got sent to all the faster areas. I’m guessing this is why we are seeing a big jump in cases. Now I’m not 100% on this I’m just speculating but when the covid visa ban came into play I think they may have looked less at other visas and just focused on family based. All we can do now was wait and pray they hire more staff. I’m sure the current staff is prob thinking the same thing lol. I’m due time we all will be walking out of consulate trying to hold back the tears and the happy dance. I’m sure the ppl in line waiting to get it will understand when u are skipping out the door.

This is certainly plausible.

 

However, check out London’s stats:
http://visawhen.com/consulates/london/cr1ir1
 

“Before 2020 March, London issued 132CR1/IR1 visas per month on average. If we naively assume that the number of visa applications didn’t change during COVID, they are now 1.8 months behindexpectations”

 

London has been more or less maintaining the number of interviews per month for CR1/IR1, and this predicts that there backlog should be increasing. However, in reality they are way ahead, NOT behind.

 

This tells me the number of DQs per month for London has reduced per month. Opposite of what is happening in Montreal.

 

If you are right and the i130 approval is main factor causing the increase in DQs per month in Montreal, it would have caused a similar increase in London. But it did not. 
 

This leads me to believe that the pandemic has led to simply more cases of spousal applications. Married couples living across the border previously may not have Felt the necessity of a greencard. Additionally, the pandemic separated unmarried couples across thé US/Canada which lead to them taking the decision to get married (the pandemic acted as a catalyst for my marriage too).

 

There are simply more i130 applications being filed by Canadian spouses (new or old) of US citizens since the pandemic, and we are seeing all these now as increased DQ numbers per month. 

 

@Twiz&Toz @alphabetagamma

Edited August 15, 2021 by From_CAN_2_US

[From_CAN_2_US 1,106]

@alphabetagamma

 

http://visawhen.com/nvc

 

Here is some data of how processing times from submission to DQ increased/ decreased with NVC since Dec 2020.

 

Make what you want from it...there are multiple ways to interpret this.

[Twiz&Toz 240]

5 hours ago, From_CAN_2_US said:

This is certainly plausible.

 

However, check out London’s stats:
http://visawhen.com/consulates/london/cr1ir1
 

“Before 2020 March, London issued 132CR1/IR1 visas per month on average. If we naively assume that the number of visa applications didn’t change during COVID, they are now 1.8 months behindexpectations”

 

London has been more or less maintaining the number of interviews per month for CR1/IR1, and this predicts that there backlog should be increasing. However, in reality they are way ahead, NOT behind.

 

This tells me the number of DQs per month for London has reduced per month. Opposite of what is happening in Montreal.

 

If you are right and the i130 approval is main factor causing the increase in DQs per month in Montreal, it would have caused a similar increase in London. But it did not. 
 

This leads me to believe that the pandemic has led to simply more cases of spousal applications. Married couples living across the border previously may not have Felt the necessity of a greencard. Additionally, the pandemic separated unmarried couples across thé US/Canada which lead to them taking the decision to get married (the pandemic acted as a catalyst for my marriage too).

 

There are simply more i130 applications being filed by Canadian spouses (new or old) of US citizens since the pandemic, and we are seeing all these now as increased DQ numbers per month. 

 

@Twiz&Toz @alphabetagamma

I just wish nvc had data on how many Dq per country were done that would deff help out and give us a better picture. All we can do now is wait till the next batch of letters. I have a feeling it will be another 2 week only batch till we get threw to nov. fingers crossed things speed up just a little. 

[alphabetagamma 102]

13 hours ago, From_CAN_2_US said:

@alphabetagamma

 

http://visawhen.com/nvc

 

Here is some data of how processing times from submission to DQ increased/ decreased with NVC since Dec 2020.

 

Make what you want from it...there are multiple ways to interpret this.

Looking at this I strongly feel that by end of this year we will have IL's covered till Mar 21. After that it might slow down again. 

My guess is there are less applications DQ'd till Mar 21.  From Apr 21 onward NVC picked up speed to approve faster and moving more people to DQ so it might take more time to cover those. That's just my interpretation. 

7 hours ago, Twiz&Toz said:

I just wish nvc had data on how many Dq per country were done that would deff help out and give us a better picture. All we can do now is wait till the next batch of letters. I have a feeling it will be another 2 week only batch till we get threw to nov. fingers crossed things speed up just a little. 

That would be very helpful indeed to predict.