Timeline on VJ

[ND9811 1]

7 hours ago, Steffen & Rafael said:

My case was approved after 2 months. Maybe they are processing them faster but I don’t know. I wish you the best of luck!

Wow. And it was in Potomac?

[Letspaintcookies 2,291]

I never understood the text how you do but I can see why you understand it that way. Maybe the wording needs to be slightly modified. 

Tho again, your estimate will most likely change a couple of times while time goes by.

For me and many others the estimates were almost spot on but that was before Covid. It will  probably take a while till the database is working properly again. 

 

[Steffen & Rafael 31]

3 hours ago, ND9811 said:

Wow. And it was in Potomac?

Actually my SC was Nebraska but I was expecting 9 months at least. I was surprised by the quickness.

[ND9811 1]

20 hours ago, Steffen & Rafael said:

Actually my SC was Nebraska but I was expecting 9 months at least. I was surprised by the quickness.

Wow, congrats!

22 hours ago, Letspaintcookies said:

I never understood the text how you do but I can see why you understand it that way. Maybe the wording needs to be slightly modified. 

Tho again, your estimate will most likely change a couple of times while time goes by.

For me and many others the estimates were almost spot on but that was before Covid. It will  probably take a while till the database is working properly again. 

 

It almost seems unethical how long many people have been waiting. 

[ND9811 1]

22 hours ago, Letspaintcookies said:

I never understood the text how you do but I can see why you understand it that way. Maybe the wording needs to be slightly modified. 

Tho again, your estimate will most likely change a couple of times while time goes by.

For me and many others the estimates were almost spot on but that was before Covid. It will  probably take a while till the database is working properly again. 

 

The thing that confuses me the most is even the data on VJ shows Potomac usually taking around 2 years. I am wondering if because I was originally with Nebraska that the are calculating the times for nebraska even though I was transferred to Potomac

[Finney 0]

My guess is that the VJ estimate data is skewed by people who requested expedites.  I find Igor's list to be the best measurement of where people are in the process:

https://www.visajourney.com/timeline/monthly_filers.php?form=2&visa=3&scenter=6&option=2&sortby=2

 

Here you can see some approved 2 months (likely expedited), and others taking almost a year.   VJ probably has a simple algorithm that averages it out

 

[ND9811 1]

10 hours ago, Finney said:

My guess is that the VJ estimate data is skewed by people who requested expedites.  I find Igor's list to be the best measurement of where people are in the process:

https://www.visajourney.com/timeline/monthly_filers.php?form=2&visa=3&scenter=6&option=2&sortby=2

 

Here you can see some approved 2 months (likely expedited), and others taking almost a year.   VJ probably has a simple algorithm that averages it out

 

Interesting. I think it does calculate mine based off Nebraska because on this link I am not listed in April. I should be listed under April 14th based of when I received my First NOA. 
 

I bet it is estimating my time based off if Nebraska. What your saying makes sense but I don’t think a few expedites would bring the entire average down to 5 months. 

[Chancy 6,239]

*** Moved from IR1/CR1 Progress Reports to Site-Related Discussion -- topic is about the accuracy of the generated estimate on the VJ Timeline ***

 

[StrawberryKiss 170]

On 8/4/2021 at 2:49 AM, ND9811 said:

The thing that confuses me the most is even the data on VJ shows Potomac usually taking around 2 years. I am wondering if because I was originally with Nebraska that the are calculating the times for nebraska even though I was transferred to Potomac

That’s exactly what I was saying in my first response. VJ disregards any transfers when it comes to the calculation. 

[ND9811 1]

2 hours ago, StrawberryKiss said:

That’s exactly what I was saying in my first response. VJ disregards any transfers when it comes to the calculation. 

Yeah. I think you are right. Which makes the VJ timeline pointless as most people get transferred at some point. Why just calculate it based off original service center?

[Captain Ewok 1,871]

On 8/8/2021 at 3:30 PM, ND9811 said:

Yeah. I think you are right. Which makes the VJ timeline pointless as most people get transferred at some point. Why just calculate it based off original service center?

It's perhaps somewhat more complicated but I'm quite open to making changes, if they make sense.

 

Ideally the priority date (regardless of xfer) is the receipt/NOA1 date from the original service center.  If everyone is being transferred for a particular petition from one service center to the next then the current tracking makes the most sense. Also, for long term tracking if a service center swaps from internal to external (xfer) processing our timeline trends will spot that.  From a timeline estimate perspective unless the xfer is a rogue case then the estimates should still hold, given that everyone is being transfered.

 

I can see the value in tracking or processing estimates by the xfer'd service center too...  thoughts?  It's an easy update on our backend (we would just pool data from each service center by people who filed there "or" got xfered there).