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Crtcl Rice Theory

Multi-day iron-air batteries reach commercialization… at one tenth of the cost of lithium

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11 hours ago, Dashinka said:

I really believe there are markets and uses for EVs.  Take a place like South Korea, you really cannot drive more than 4-5 hours in any direction since it is essentially an island, so I can see EVs working there as long as the power is available.  I don't see EVs working well for those that like to drive across the US.  I know the wife and I drive around the US quite a bit, and I do not want to add hours to the drive every 200 miles.

 

Regardless, the iron air batteries are not really meant for EVs given the size necessary, and their weight. It appears they are more likely to be used as power storage for windmills and solar panels.

Yes, I understand the iron/air ones are more of a factory type of thing.  And like you, I wonder if they are efficient enough to actually be sustainable.  I think hydrogen will be more productive than these things, but that's just a SWAG.

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22 hours ago, Dashinka said:

Still a matter of time vs energy.  Even the super fast DC chargers need 45-60 minutes to get 200-250 miles, where as I can get 500 miles in 5 minutes with gasoline.  Then if EVs gain a larger market share (which seems likely), you might have to wait for some time to actually start charging.  The other thing that many EV makers seem to forget is that not everyone lives in single family homes with attached garages, where do the people living in apartment complexes charge their vehicles overnight.  As I said, there is a market for EVs, but I am not sure they will take over the entire market.

good points. What do you drive you can go 500 miles in 5mins?

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1 hour ago, Nature Boy 2.0 said:

good points. What do you drive you can go 500 miles in 5mins?

What I meant was it takes 5 minutes to fill the fuel tank for a 500 mile driving range rather than 40+ minutes of “fast” charging to get maybe 200 miles of driving range.  :jest:

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4 hours ago, Dashinka said:

What I meant was it takes 5 minutes to fill the fuel tank for a 500 mile driving range rather than 40+ minutes of “fast” charging to get maybe 200 miles of driving range.  :jest:

The new F150 will add 60 miles in 10 minutes and get from empty to 80% in 20 minutes. Driving range is around 250 miles.  The 800 V vehicles are faster charging.  Another thing the Lightning will do is smart charge overnight on the cheapest rate.  

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Country: Guyana
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ooooooh, ahhhhhhhhhhhh.  I can refill 60 miles in 12.4 seconds.  And 250 miles total range?  That is just... sad. 

Also, for those who don't have access to 240V outlets, charging overnight will net them some pretty paltry results.  I could do it, because I don't drive for 3-5 days at a time, but those who drive daily are going to find it troublesome.

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10 hours ago, Dashinka said:

What I meant was it takes 5 minutes to fill the fuel tank for a 500 mile driving range rather than 40+ minutes of “fast” charging to get maybe 200 miles of driving range.  :jest:

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10 hours ago, Crtcl Rice Theory said:

The new F150 will add 60 miles in 10 minutes and get from empty to 80% in 20 minutes. Driving range is around 250 miles.  The 800 V vehicles are faster charging.  Another thing the Lightning will do is smart charge overnight on the cheapest rate.  

There are a lot of assumptions in those numbers from Ford.  The first is that one has access to a 240V outlet in their garage, and one also purchases the fairly expensive inverter unit for their house (essentially the same cost as an electrical switch for a standby generator).  If one is relying on 120V, then I think the charge rate is about 3-4 miles per hour of charge.  Twenty minutes (if you can find a fast charger, and it is free when you pull in) is still a bit off as compared to internal combustion vehicles when you are on a long drive and are not looking to add a lot of time to that drive.  

 

Like I said, there is a market for EVs, but EVs are not one size fits all until they come up with vehicles with 500+ miles of range that recharge to 100% in 5 minutes.

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15 hours ago, Dashinka said:

EVs are not one size fits all until they come up with vehicles with 500+ miles of range that recharge to 100% in 5 minutes.

I'm pessimistic that this will happen by the time the government wants (or decrees) it to happen.

I foresee unmitigated chaos, especially for poorer people and apartment-dwellers.

06-04-2007 = TSC stamps postal return-receipt for I-129f.

06-11-2007 = NOA1 date (unknown to me).

07-20-2007 = Phoned Immigration Officer; got WAC#; where's NOA1?

09-25-2007 = Touch (first-ever).

09-28-2007 = NOA1, 23 days after their 45-day promise to send it (grrrr).

10-20 & 11-14-2007 = Phoned ImmOffs; "still pending."

12-11-2007 = 180 days; file is "between workstations, may be early Jan."; touches 12/11 & 12/12.

12-18-2007 = Call; file is with Division 9 ofcr. (bckgrnd check); e-prompt to shake it; touch.

12-19-2007 = NOA2 by e-mail & web, dated 12-18-07 (187 days; 201 per VJ); in mail 12/24/07.

01-09-2008 = File from USCIS to NVC, 1-4-08; NVC creates file, 1/15/08; to consulate 1/16/08.

01-23-2008 = Consulate gets file; outdated Packet 4 mailed to fiancee 1/27/08; rec'd 3/3/08.

04-29-2008 = Fiancee's 4-min. consular interview, 8:30 a.m.; much evidence brought but not allowed to be presented (consul: "More proof! Second interview! Bring your fiance!").

05-05-2008 = Infuriating $12 call to non-English-speaking consulate appointment-setter.

05-06-2008 = Better $12 call to English-speaker; "joint" interview date 6/30/08 (my selection).

06-30-2008 = Stokes Interrogations w/Ecuadorian (not USC); "wait 2 weeks; we'll mail her."

07-2008 = Daily calls to DOS: "currently processing"; 8/05 = Phoned consulate, got Section Chief; wrote him.

08-07-08 = E-mail from consulate, promising to issue visa "as soon as we get her passport" (on 8/12, per DHL).

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1 hour ago, TBoneTX said:

I'm pessimistic that this will happen by the time the government wants (or decrees) it to happen.

especially for poorer people and apartment-dwellers.

I foresee unmitigated chaos

“If you know the enemy and know yourself, you need not fear the result of a hundred battles. If you know yourself but not the enemy, for every victory gained you will also suffer a defeat. If you know neither the enemy nor yourself, you will succumb in every battle.”

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19 hours ago, Dashinka said:

There are a lot of assumptions in those numbers from Ford.  The first is that one has access to a 240V outlet in their garage, and one also purchases the fairly expensive inverter unit for their house (essentially the same cost as an electrical switch for a standby generator).  If one is relying on 120V, then I think the charge rate is about 3-4 miles per hour of charge.  Twenty minutes (if you can find a fast charger, and it is free when you pull in) is still a bit off as compared to internal combustion vehicles when you are on a long drive and are not looking to add a lot of time to that drive.  

 

Like I said, there is a market for EVs, but EVs are not one size fits all until they come up with vehicles with 500+ miles of range that recharge to 100% in 5 minutes.

I am positive your calculations are way off. 

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5 hours ago, Crtcl Rice Theory said:

I am positive your calculations are way off. 

Not really sure what you are talking about as I did not really calculate anything.  So which numbers are you questioning?  If you have better information feel free to share.

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9 minutes ago, Dashinka said:

Not really sure what you are talking about as I did not really calculate anything.  So which numbers are you questioning?  If you have better information feel free to share.

1.Actual mileage range for to he f150 lightning is coming in higher than Ford's published estimate not lower.

2. Average home charging station costs come in around 1500 installed, and most modern homes have 220 available

3. Speed is valuable when charging away from home, less valuable at home as we are doing other things

4. The super chargers for leafs and Tesla go from zero to full in less than an hour.

 

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4 hours ago, Crtcl Rice Theory said:

1.Actual mileage range for to he f150 lightning is coming in higher than Ford's published estimate not lower.

Possible if only one person is in the vehicle and there is no cargo in the bed, or towing going on.  According to Ford, the extended range value of ~300 miles was done with a 1/2 ton of cargo in the bed.  I have not seen any numbers related to towing a maximum or even an average load.

4 hours ago, Crtcl Rice Theory said:

2. Average home charging station costs come in around 1500 installed, and most modern homes have 220 available

Ford is touting the Ford Charge Station Pro which is an 80 amp 220V charging station that has the ability to automatically switch to allow a home to run off the truck in the event of a power failure.  Auto-switches (3 phase) in the 100 amp range that are used with a stand-by generator run in the $1500 to $2000 range just for the unit, and installation comes separately.  I have yet to see a price on the Ford switch, but I expect it will be comparable or maybe a little higher since it will be emblazoned with the blue oval.  Btw, I did not say most homes did not have 220V 100amp or higher service, but there are some older homes that may not, and of course there is that little thing that not everyone lives in a single family home with an attached, or even detached garage.

4 hours ago, Crtcl Rice Theory said:

3. Speed is valuable when charging away from home, less valuable at home as we are doing other things

And there are a lot of people that use their vehicles where charging away from home is valuable.  I agree, if one drives a limited amount of miles daily with no need to travel across the country, then this vehicle may be ideal.  Again, EVs are not one-size fits all.

4 hours ago, Crtcl Rice Theory said:

4. The super chargers for leafs and Tesla go from zero to full in less than an hour.

 

That is a little vague and also comes with the assumption that a charging port is available when someone drives up to the station.  Here is what I found related to Teslas.

 

As a general rule of thumb about how long it takes to charge on a Supercharger, think of it like this:
- 20–30 minutes to go from 20% battery remaining to 80% full.
- 60 minutes to go from 20% battery remaining to 95%.
- 90 minutes to go from 20% battery remaining to 100%.

 

https://donb.medium.com/how-fast-does-a-supercharger-charge-a-tesla-589c7e0530d8

 

As I said before, EVs have a place in the market, I just don't see them replacing all internal combustion vehicles until full charging times get down to the same neighborhood as refueling at a gas station. 

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