4% of Population is Vaccinated - Really Pathetic

[AKteacher 104]

1 hour ago, Will&Christine said:

That death rate is calculated from confirmed cases. Not everyone gets tested for covid. In 2018-2019 flu season CDC estimated 35 million Americans got it. Note they said estimated because not everyone gets tested for flu. So who knows how many people got covid. It is believed death rate is a lot lower than that for majority of population except for frail and elderly people. You're assuming covid will infect every single individual in Philippines. I never heard of a virus with 100% infection rate. 35 million Americans got flu. That's like 11% of USA population. For sake of argument covid is more contagious and infects 25% of Philippines population instead of 11%. So 27,500,000 people eventually caught covid. That 412,000 deaths using 1.5% death rate based on confirmed cases. Covid have been here for over 18 months and 37k deaths so far. That's around flu or tuberculosis like severity. You could say it's because of lockdown but the country is under lockdown for 18 months and nothing to show for it. Covid is still spreading and daily cases are getting higher despite vaccines, mask and strict lockdown.

Obviously, every single individual won't be infected. That's why I said "potentially," or perhaps a better word would have been "theoretically." More precautions would slow the rate of infection somewhat, and vice-versa. OK, say deaths are about 1/2 million as you calculate. Still insignificant?

 

I think we all know that no amount of precautions, lockdowns, etc. are going to completely stop the spread, just slow it down. Without lockdowns and masks, perhaps the whole process of spread that would happen anyway would get the whole epidemic over with faster, although perhaps at the cost of more lives since hospital beds would be unavailable to many if there were too many cases at once (seems like that's already happening in some places). This must be weighed against the negative effects of lockdowns, kids out of school, etc, which are significant.

 

Most people in Philippines still have not been vaccinated, and many have been given Sinovac, which is much less effective. Greater vaccine availability would undoubtedly help as well.

Edited September 27, 2021 by AKteacher

[Ban Hammer 13,332]

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charles

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[Joe Kano 327]

13 hours ago, AKteacher said:

Most people in Philippines still have not been vaccinated, and many have been given Sinovac, which is much less effective. Greater vaccine availability would undoubtedly help as well.

Do you think it will help open the country for tourism?  I would think by July of 2022 they should have about  50% of the eligible population vaccinated.  We have about 55% of the US is fully vaccinated and covid rages in on.   With Philippines history or locking down and doing quarantine levels with case expanding I just don't see tourism happening any time soon.

 

 

[AKteacher 104]

7 hours ago, Joe Kano said:

Do you think it will help open the country for tourism?  I would think by July of 2022 they should have about  50% of the eligible population vaccinated.  We have about 55% of the US is fully vaccinated and covid rages in on.   With Philippines history or locking down and doing quarantine levels with case expanding I just don't see tourism happening any time soon.

 

 

There is no magic number, but 50% or 55% is clearly not enough by itself for "herd immunity." I don't think Philippines will be back to normal for tourism by 2022, unless something changes. Perhaps they'll get more and/or better vaccines, or maybe they'll do some sort of a "sandbox" model like in Phuket, Thailand. Or maybe they'll just decide the benefits of lockdowns are not worth the drawbacks. Who knows. As much depends on public policy as the actual state of the pandemic.

 

Here's an article I thought was interesting, from Yale Medicine:

https://www.yalemedicine.org/news/herd-immunity

[RO_AH 1,659]

13 hours ago, Joe Kano said:

Do you think it will help open the country for tourism?  I would think by July of 2022 they should have about  50% of the eligible population vaccinated.  We have about 55% of the US is fully vaccinated and covid rages in on.   With Philippines history or locking down and doing quarantine levels with case expanding I just don't see tourism happening any time soon.

9 out of 10 eligible people in Hawaii have been vaccinated and  yet our lock down's continue. Our government just turned down a request by UofH to allow up to 1000 fully vaccinated people attend football games. Nope.... Too dangerous.

[Puppythecat 89]

5 hours ago, RO_AH said:

9 out of 10 eligible people in Hawaii have been vaccinated and  yet our lock down's continue. Our government just turned down a request by UofH to allow up to 1000 fully vaccinated people attend football games. Nope.... Too dangerous.

Don't you know, if we need to reach 80% resistance for herd immunity and the vaccines are 70% effective at stopping spread then we need to reach 115% vaccination to stop the spread.  So until then just hide in the closet and do whatever your superiors tell you.

[seekingthetruth 1,246]

20 hours ago, Joe Kano said:

Do you think it will help open the country for tourism?  I would think by July of 2022 they should have about  50% of the eligible population vaccinated.  We have about 55% of the US is fully vaccinated and covid rages in on.   With Philippines history or locking down and doing quarantine levels with case expanding I just don't see tourism happening any time soon.

 

 

I'm not sure what to believe, but vaccinations might progress fast than that.  If you look at @Talako's post for vaccines as of the 22nd, 25.12% fully vaccinated.  Currently on the 28th, 6 days later, it is 26.98%.  An additional 1.86% in 6 days.  If you project 1.5% per week for the remaining 13 weeks of the year, that would bring it to ~45% at the end of 2021.  If they could do 2% per week, that would be ~52%.

 

I think the pace is picking up.  Olongapo in my area seems to doing a good job, with plenty of vaccines and ongoing everyday a 1 or 2 large sites.  If you don't mind getting Sinovac, I think anybody can walk in and get jabbed.  My wife witnessed a foreigner agree to that last week.  She had an appointment and got Pfizer.

 

In Baguio, they have 3 or 4 locations including drive thru.  My BIL and his wife did drive thru this morning.  He registered as A4 and the drive through took two hours.  Not bad.

 

[Joe Kano 327]

On 9/28/2021 at 6:38 PM, RO_AH said:

9 out of 10 eligible people in Hawaii have been vaccinated and  yet our lock down's continue. Our government just turned down a request by UofH to allow up to 1000 fully vaccinated people attend football games. Nope.... Too dangerous.

I would be packing my suitcases and moving to a free state like Texas until all that nonsense in Hawaii is over with.  I had no clue they ran the state that way.  

[Joe Kano 327]

On 9/29/2021 at 12:07 AM, Puppythecat said:

Don't you know, if we need to reach 80% resistance for herd immunity and the vaccines are 70% effective at stopping spread then we need to reach 115% vaccination to stop the spread.  So until then just hide in the closet and do whatever your superiors tell you.

This has been the Philippines game plan since March 2020, you see how well it has worked out

[Joe Kano 327]

On 9/29/2021 at 2:15 AM, seekingthetruth said:

I'm not sure what to believe, but vaccinations might progress fast than that.  If you look at @Talako's post for vaccines as of the 22nd, 25.12% fully vaccinated.  Currently on the 28th, 6 days later, it is 26.98%.  An additional 1.86% in 6 days.  If you project 1.5% per week for the remaining 13 weeks of the year, that would bring it to ~45% at the end of 2021.  If they could do 2% per week, that would be ~52%.

 

I think the pace is picking up.  Olongapo in my area seems to doing a good job, with plenty of vaccines and ongoing everyday a 1 or 2 large sites.  If you don't mind getting Sinovac, I think anybody can walk in and get jabbed.  My wife witnessed a foreigner agree to that last week.  She had an appointment and got Pfizer.

 

In Baguio, they have 3 or 4 locations including drive thru.  My BIL and his wife did drive thru this morning.  He registered as A4 and the drive through took two hours.  Not bad.

 

 

If the Philippines had an abundance of vaccines and you could walk in and get a shot without an appointment I don't see more than 60% of the eligible population getting a vaccine.  So once they reach that number what will they do?   Will they make you go to jail for no vaccine?    I am not very optimistic of seeing Philippines open back up and for tourism any time soon, at this pace 2022 maybe another lockdown year in the Philippines.

 

I 

[jg121783 3,915]

10 hours ago, Joe Kano said:

If the Philippines had an abundance of vaccines and you could walk in and get a shot without an appointment I don't see more than 60% of the eligible population getting a vaccine.  So once they reach that number what will they do?   Will they make you go to jail for no vaccine?    I am not very optimistic of seeing Philippines open back up and for tourism any time soon, at this pace 2022 maybe another lockdown year in the Philippines.

 

I 

I hope not. Were planning a trip for next summer and we don't want to spend 1/3 of our trip in quarantine.

[flicks1998 1,044]

I don’t have the link readily available but they just came out with the new restaurant standards for now and into the new normal. I’m sure someone will post it but I don’t think most tourists will ever go back with what will be required.  Of all the foreigners who I know living in the Philippines, I would say 95% have left permanently and the other 5% are leaving by the New Year. None ever plan to reside there again. These are people who have lived there between 5-30 years. 
 

 

Edited September 30, 2021 by flicks1998

[Joe Kano 327]

16 hours ago, flicks1998 said:

I don’t have the link readily available but they just came out with the new restaurant standards for now and into the new normal. I’m sure someone will post it but I don’t think most tourists will ever go back with what will be required.  Of all the foreigners who I know living in the Philippines, I would say 95% have left permanently and the other 5% are leaving by the New Year. None ever plan to reside there again. These are people who have lived there between 5-30 years. 
 

 

Yea, I have seen many leave as well.  My nephew moved over there 3 years ago, he made his wife quit a great paying job just because he wanted to live in Philippines.  He is a homebody and doesn't drink, Right now he has close to 300K tied up building a house so I guess that is his entertainment for now and the next 9 months or so.  I keep waiting for him to get his belly full and leave, I figured he would get blacklisted due to berating or beating some one up after he arrived, I guess he has learned how to adjust over there.  

 

I for one couldn't live over there during the pandemic, I don't know if I could live long term over there during normal times, I enjoy visiting Philippines, not so sure I would want to reside there.

[Talako 781]

Up 8% in roughly a month.  They are now at 1/3 of the target:

 

Edited October 25, 2021 by Talako

[John & Rose 7,239]

Here is the latest numbers from DOH

 

https://doh.gov.ph/covid19-vaccination-dashboard?fbclid=IwAR24DHoL2A5O1CAjwe6tv4smpUZoqS_1Z45iKnlIKLacnFwa8kVqEat0Mbk

 

 

Edited October 26, 2021 by John & Rose