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Trump vs. Pelosi: A Marquee Matchup for the Speakership?

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TBoneTX Grand Master

TBoneTX   45,572

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Had read about this initially.  Pros and cons are presented here.  Constructive comments?

Quote

Trump vs. Pelosi: A Marquee Matchup for the Speakership?

by Nicholas L. Waddy - June 6, 2021

 

[...] For Trump, a run for the House would have several benefits.  [...]

 

Continues here:   https://amgreatness.com/2021/06/06/trump-vs-pelosi-a-marquee-matchup-for-the-speakership/  

 

 

 

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05-06-2008 = Better $12 call to English-speaker; "joint" interview date 6/30/08 (my selection).

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Dashinka Grand Master

Dashinka   24,629

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Unless Trump was going to run as a Democrat, the headline is a bit misleading.  It is an interesting thought.  Considering some of the real winners elected in various congressional districts, I could see Trump winning a seat in the House.

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TBoneTX Grand Master

TBoneTX   45,572

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I had read about the idea in Wayne Allyn Root's column in (where?) Townhall.com, I think it was, so I knew what the above headline was referring to.  Interesting thought.  I appreciate the author's presentation of the downsides as well as the upsides.

06-04-2007 = TSC stamps postal return-receipt for I-129f.

06-11-2007 = NOA1 date (unknown to me).

07-20-2007 = Phoned Immigration Officer; got WAC#; where's NOA1?

09-25-2007 = Touch (first-ever).

09-28-2007 = NOA1, 23 days after their 45-day promise to send it (grrrr).

10-20 & 11-14-2007 = Phoned ImmOffs; "still pending."

12-11-2007 = 180 days; file is "between workstations, may be early Jan."; touches 12/11 & 12/12.

12-18-2007 = Call; file is with Division 9 ofcr. (bckgrnd check); e-prompt to shake it; touch.

12-19-2007 = NOA2 by e-mail & web, dated 12-18-07 (187 days; 201 per VJ); in mail 12/24/07.

01-09-2008 = File from USCIS to NVC, 1-4-08; NVC creates file, 1/15/08; to consulate 1/16/08.

01-23-2008 = Consulate gets file; outdated Packet 4 mailed to fiancee 1/27/08; rec'd 3/3/08.

04-29-2008 = Fiancee's 4-min. consular interview, 8:30 a.m.; much evidence brought but not allowed to be presented (consul: "More proof! Second interview! Bring your fiance!").

05-05-2008 = Infuriating $12 call to non-English-speaking consulate appointment-setter.

05-06-2008 = Better $12 call to English-speaker; "joint" interview date 6/30/08 (my selection).

06-30-2008 = Stokes Interrogations w/Ecuadorian (not USC); "wait 2 weeks; we'll mail her."

07-2008 = Daily calls to DOS: "currently processing"; 8/05 = Phoned consulate, got Section Chief; wrote him.

08-07-08 = E-mail from consulate, promising to issue visa "as soon as we get her passport" (on 8/12, per DHL).

08-27-08 = Phoned consulate (they "couldn't find" our file); visa DHL'd 8/28; in hand 9/1; through POE on 10/9 with NO hassles(!).

moxy Rising Star

moxy   1,051

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Mar a Lago is in the 21st Congressional District, currently held by a Democrat. Trump would either have to run against her, or move. Joe Biden won that district by 17%, so his best course of action would be to move to a district with a retiring Republican.

 

Unfortunately for Trump, no House reps are retiring in Florida. So he'd either have to persuade a Florida Republican to give up their House seat, or move out of state.

 

Whether in Florida or another state, if he runs he also has to hope the Republicans take back the House. If Republicans don't take back the House, he'll be a junior representative in the minority party.

 

If Republicans take the House, there will be a vote for Speaker. Trump needs to hope that his fellow Republicans are still enamored with him, and that they will vote for him as Speaker. Kevin McCarthy would otherwise be the presumptive Speaker, so there may be a tussle over control of leadership. But if Trump has made it this far, he stands a good chance of beating McCarthy out.

 

His next hurdle is getting House Republicans to rally around impeachment. He needs a simple majority vote to pass articles of impeachment. I'm going to make a few assumptions, as a worst-case scenario for Trump:

 

- Biden will have committed nothing truly impeachable, and impeachment will be seen as simple revenge
- Republicans might win the House back, but it likely will be by a slim majority, meaning he may not have the votes, especially if it's the revenge impeachment I mentioned.

 

Assuming Impeachment passes, it goes over to the Senate. So in this scenario, we are assuming the Republicans have taken back the Senate. But Impeachment will need 2/3, or 67 Senators to vote yes. Even if Republicans take back the Senate, nobody is predicting they'll win that big.

 

So even if Trump manages all these hurdles, the best he can hope for is impeachment without conviction, and probably an impeachment that is seen as nothing but petty revenge by voters he will need if he hopes to avoid another loss in his run for president.

 

Trump is gonna do what Trump wants to do, and often there's no plan or logic to it. But it seems to me that a run for the House has way more downside for him than upside. He could lose his House run, he could lose the Speaker vote, he could lose his impeachment vote, and he almost assuredly would lose conviction in the Senate. Any one of those losses looks bad for him, and of course hurts his fragile ego. He is better off hoping Republicans take the House in 2022 and do his bidding from afar, and instead focusing on his 2024 run for president.

elmcitymaven Grand Master

elmcitymaven   9,712

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Debatably constructive comment: colossally dumb idea, and whoever suggested it in the first place should be doomed to an eternity watching Ben Shapiro videos where young Ben is almost, but not quite, allowed to view AOC's feet.

larissa-lima-says-who-is-against-the-que

TBoneTX Grand Master

TBoneTX   45,572

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Ben Shapiro talks like an auctioneer on a caffeine high.

06-04-2007 = TSC stamps postal return-receipt for I-129f.

06-11-2007 = NOA1 date (unknown to me).

07-20-2007 = Phoned Immigration Officer; got WAC#; where's NOA1?

09-25-2007 = Touch (first-ever).

09-28-2007 = NOA1, 23 days after their 45-day promise to send it (grrrr).

10-20 & 11-14-2007 = Phoned ImmOffs; "still pending."

12-11-2007 = 180 days; file is "between workstations, may be early Jan."; touches 12/11 & 12/12.

12-18-2007 = Call; file is with Division 9 ofcr. (bckgrnd check); e-prompt to shake it; touch.

12-19-2007 = NOA2 by e-mail & web, dated 12-18-07 (187 days; 201 per VJ); in mail 12/24/07.

01-09-2008 = File from USCIS to NVC, 1-4-08; NVC creates file, 1/15/08; to consulate 1/16/08.

01-23-2008 = Consulate gets file; outdated Packet 4 mailed to fiancee 1/27/08; rec'd 3/3/08.

04-29-2008 = Fiancee's 4-min. consular interview, 8:30 a.m.; much evidence brought but not allowed to be presented (consul: "More proof! Second interview! Bring your fiance!").

05-05-2008 = Infuriating $12 call to non-English-speaking consulate appointment-setter.

05-06-2008 = Better $12 call to English-speaker; "joint" interview date 6/30/08 (my selection).

06-30-2008 = Stokes Interrogations w/Ecuadorian (not USC); "wait 2 weeks; we'll mail her."

07-2008 = Daily calls to DOS: "currently processing"; 8/05 = Phoned consulate, got Section Chief; wrote him.

08-07-08 = E-mail from consulate, promising to issue visa "as soon as we get her passport" (on 8/12, per DHL).

08-27-08 = Phoned consulate (they "couldn't find" our file); visa DHL'd 8/28; in hand 9/1; through POE on 10/9 with NO hassles(!).

Dashinka Grand Master

Dashinka   24,629

Posted
Filed: Citizen (apr) Country: Russia
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Posted
7 hours ago, elmcitymaven said:

Debatably constructive comment: colossally dumb idea, and whoever suggested it in the first place should be doomed to an eternity watching Ben Shapiro videos where young Ben is almost, but not quite, allowed to view AOC's feet.

Is that like spending an eternity watching Samantha Bee?

Visa Received : 2014-04-04 (K1 - see timeline for details)

US Entry : 2014-09-12

POE: Detroit

Marriage : 2014-09-27

I-765 Approved: 2015-01-09

I-485 Interview: 2015-03-11

I-485 Approved: 2015-03-13

Green Card Received: 2015-03-24 Yeah!!!

I-751 ROC Submitted: 2016-12-20

I-751 NOA Received:  2016-12-29

I-751 Biometrics Appt.:  2017-01-26

I-751 Interview:  2018-04-10

I-751 Approved:  2018-05-04

N400 Filed:  2018-01-13

N400 Biometrics:  2018-02-22

N400 Interview:  2018-04-10

N400 Approved:  2018-04-10

Oath Ceremony:  2018-06-11 - DONE!!!!!!!

 

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