Philippines US Marriage Visa Approvals by Month (K1 Visas Way Down, CR1 Visas Up)

[Captain Ewok 1,891]

We've had tons of questions on whether the Manila US Consulate in the Philippines has been approving marriage based US Visas (and if so at what rate).  To answer that, we dug into the official US State Department data and plotted visa approvals for K1, CR1 and IR1 visas over the last 2 years. Here is what we found:

 

• K1 Visa processing is WAY down.  In fact it's down by more than 10x from pre-Covid levels (~500 a month pre-Covid to ~50 a month now).  There is likely to be a significant backlog.  Even one month of cases (pre-Covid) would take 10 months to clear at this pace, assuming no new petitions!
• IR1 Visa processing is back to pre-Covid rates.  There is likely a backlog that will take months to clear given the slow down last year.
• CR1 Visa processing (couples married less than 2 years) is roughly 2x higher than pre-Covid (~100 a month pre-Covid to more than ~200 a month now).  Could folks be preferring the CR-1 route over a K1 visa?  This seems possible given the major backlog on K1 Visas.  For some couples, this could be a legitimate route to living together in the US sooner.

 

 

What do you think of the data (below)?  Do you think the US consulate in Manila is artificially slowing don K1 Visa processing to prioritize other work or for other reasons?

 

 

 

[Crazy Cat 41,845]

Useful data.  Thanks, Captain!!!!

[Suze1 366]

Excellent post, Captain!

 

This reflects the number of applications approved, right? 

 

Makes me wonder about several stats, including percentages:

1) Number of applications submitted (during several periods - i.e. before and recently)

2) Number of applications that have been fully processed

3) Percentage of applications filed that have been processed

4) Percentage of applications that have been approved

 

(Is enough data even publicly knowable?)

 

Thanks, and keep up the great work (of course).

[Captain Ewok 1,891]

23 minutes ago, Suze1 said:

Excellent post, Captain!

 

This reflects the number of applications approved, right? 

 

Makes me wonder about several stats, including percentages:

1) Number of applications submitted (during several periods - i.e. before and recently)

2) Number of applications that have been fully processed

3) Percentage of applications filed that have been processed

4) Percentage of applications that have been approved

 

(Is enough data even publicly knowable?)

 

Thanks, and keep up the great work (of course).

Yep, these are approvals each month for each visa category.

[top_secret 2,417]

Awesome graphing it out like that.  The difference would be even more dramatic if you group IR-1 and CR-1 approvals together vs K-1.   It does seem very unfair to those waiting on K1's

[Captain Ewok 1,891]

6 hours ago, top_secret said:

Awesome graphing it out like that.  The difference would be even more dramatic if you group IR-1 and CR-1 approvals together vs K-1.   It does seem very unfair to those waiting on K1's

Here ya go!

 

[payxibka 10,045]

18 hours ago, top_secret said:

Awesome graphing it out like that.  The difference would be even more dramatic if you group IR-1 and CR-1 approvals together vs K-1.   It does seem very unfair to those waiting on K1's

....  misread 

Edited May 30, 2021 by payxibka

[top_secret 2,417]

On 5/29/2021 at 8:30 PM, Captain Ewok said:

Here ya go!

 

 

 

It looks like the "peak" in C/IR1's pretty much could fill in the "valley" that proceeded it, and it may almost be fair to speculate that USEM could be caught up on spousal visas or at least back to pre-pandemic delays.  But the situation for K1's looks almost catastrophic and surely getting worse with every day that passes.  Since I have CR1 and CR2 in NVC right now I am comforted by the trends but I genuinely feel bad for K1's who I know have been waiting much longer than me. 

Edited June 2, 2021 by top_secret

[Captain Ewok 1,891]

2 hours ago, top_secret said:

 

 

It looks like the "peak" in C/IR1's pretty much could fill in the "valley" that proceeded it, and it may almost be fair to speculate that USEM could be caught up on spousal visas or at least back to pre-pandemic delays.  But the situation for K1's looks almost catastrophic and surely getting worse with every day that passes.  Since I have CR1 and CR2 in NVC right now I am comforted by the trends but I genuinely feel bad for K1's who I know have been waiting much longer than me. 

I'd support a virtual or more public protest or PR campaign if the community wants to jump on board.  This is pretty bad.  

[RO_AH 1,659]

Nothing against people waiting on K-1's as I wish it was easier on all of us. But going on my 4th year of marriage and having a 2 year old and one turning 3 in a few days I am happy that if they prioritize a category they chose spouse visa's. It is extremely hard with my 2 babies only seeing their daddy on a screen. I am missing them growing up and I am happy that we finally have our appointment and should be all together in US in August.

 

My wish is that the stupid government end their draconian lock downs so they let all loved ones be together.

[PIRuby 9]

Great Post. Watch all the K1 run to the court house to get married. 

[NeonParticles 126]

Yeah... it's looking more and more like Spousal visa is the way to go.  I don't know if they're ever going to catch up with the backlog of fiancee visas at this rate.

[LonelyGringo21 3]

That does look tough for K-1 folks.

 

And it probably includes all those 90-Day Fiancée people, too.

[top_secret 2,417]

On 6/3/2021 at 2:59 PM, LonelyGringo21 said:

And it probably includes all those 90-Day Fiancée people, too.

Yea, maybe big trouble for the producers of that show to find enough new trainwreck couples to recruit in time for next season's episodes. 

[top_secret 2,417]

Fun with Excel.  Just to amuse myself I decided to dig a little deeper into the numbers for USEM.  

 

Going back two years preceding the March 2020 lockdown and taking a monthly average over that time period. I came up with, on average, USEM was issuing 470 K1 visas per month, and 237 CR1/IR1 visas per month over the last 24 "normal" months.

 

Starting with March 2020, through April 2021, and averaging those months. I came up with, on average, USEM was issuing 62 K1 visas per month, and 199 CR1/IR1 visas per month over the last 13 "post-lockdown" months.

IF, the caseloads remained constant throughout that time period (unlikely), that is a "deficit" of 408 K1 visas per month and 38 CR1/IR1 visas per month, over that 13 month period compared to pre-lockdown averages.

OR.... if caseloads remained constant at their average pre-lockdown levels (unlikely), with the ongoing average interview rates, USEM could have an additional backlog of 13mo X 408 = 5,304 K1's needing interviews.   and 13mo x 38 = 494 CR1/IR1 visas.

 

Of course, that does not take into account the unknown changes that may have taken place in the numbers of new petitions in the post lockdown world.  Maybe fewer CR1’s as couples who would have married in the Philippines, canceled plans due to travel bans, and recently married couples got delayed past the 2 year mark?  Maybe more IR1’s than usual as long-term married couples decided it was time to get the heck out of Dodge?  Maybe more K1’s than usual as unmarried couples that were separated by travel bans looked at that as an only apparent option.