All F2B Updates in This Thread (Part 2)

[Newbuddy 1]

Hang on guys it may take 3-4 years only.

im hanging on from several years even if my shorts is down.,

you too look up in the sky.. don’t pull the chain 😅 

Edited March 9 by Newbuddy

[RR159 11]

15 hours ago, Clarke84 said:

April Visa Bulletin is out, no movement this time. Though there was this at the bottom:

 

E.  VISA AVAILABILITY IN THE COMING MONTHS

FAMILY-sponsored categories (potential movement):

Worldwide dates:

F1: Up to three months
F2A (excluding Mexico): Up to six months
F2B: Up to ten weeks
F3: Several months
F4: Up to four weeks 

See how DoS is protecting their rear end, “Up to….”

 

Even if we accept that F2B will move by ten weeks at the end of this FY2024, which is September 2024, then the PD will move a total of 2 months + 10 weeks = 4.25 months. Simple math shows that to clear the current backlog it will take 24 years.

[xavier2014 21]

7 hours ago, Newbuddy said:

Hang on guys it may take 3-4 years only.

im hanging on from several years even if my shorts is down.,

you too look up in the sky.. don’t pull the chain 😅 

7 years passed already, it seems have to wait at least 3 more years, that's brutal 

[xavier2014 21]

9 minutes ago, RR159 said:

See how DoS is protecting their rear end, “Up to….”

 

Even if we accept that F2B will move by ten weeks at the end of this FY2024, which is September 2024, then the PD will move a total of 2 months + 10 weeks = 4.25 months. Simple math shows that to clear the current backlog it will take 24 years.

I am assuming 5 months in last 2 quarters, still backlog will be huge, it used to move 10+ months per fiscal year, already passed 7+ years, at this rate I have to wait at least 3 more years, not encouraging for new applicant at this time

[xavier2014 21]

Do you think these predictions are for each month or until FY25? F4 worldwide up to 4 weeks each month or up to 4 weeks until FY25?

Look at Oct’16, Feb’19 bulletins where they place in the notes predicted movements ahead for both family and employment. They precisely followed their own statements each time so fingers crossed

 

 

[xavier2014 21]

after seeing 2019 VB data, I am expecting 10 more months of movement in this fical year, I think state dep. cleared the covid backlog. would be a great year for 2016 applicants. Hope for the best

[Boiler 44,868]

The backlog is because the number of applicants comfortably exceeds the number of visa's available, it has done for some time and is likely to increasingly do so.

[xavier2014 21]

The F2B category moved consistently each month during the 2020 fiscal year, experienced movement in only a few months in 2021, and was frozen in 2022-23. Meanwhile, a small number of visas were issued in 2020-21. Since 2020, the F2B category has only advanced by approximately 14 months over four years, which should have been enough time to clear the backlog. This is why we are seeing VISA AVAILABILITY IN THE COMING MONTHS prediction. The data for old F2B applicants has not changed, including the number of PD (of applicants) from 2016. Hope I have cleared your covid  backlog confusion 

[Divinepath 13]

9 hours ago, xavier2014 said:

The F2B category moved consistently each month during the 2020 fiscal year, experienced movement in only a few months in 2021, and was frozen in 2022-23. Meanwhile, a small number of visas were issued in 2020-21. Since 2020, the F2B category has only advanced by approximately 14 months over four years, which should have been enough time to clear the backlog. This is why we are seeing VISA AVAILABILITY IN THE COMING MONTHS prediction. The data for old F2B applicants has not changed, including the number of PD (of applicants) from 2016. Hope I have cleared your covid  backlog confusion 

Is the prediction monthly or for the the rest of FY 2024?

[xavier2014 21]

7 hours ago, Divinepath said:

Is the prediction monthly or for the the rest of FY 2024?

I would say monthly, read the text below similar to VB-2016 feb or Oct text, plus there's no way F4 only move 1 month in whole fiscal year.

April VB surprised us with this prediction, I would be surprised if it doesn't move from next May-VB according to this prediction 

[appleblossom 1,911]

3 hours ago, xavier2014 said:

I would say monthly, read the text below similar to VB-2016 feb or Oct text, plus there's no way F4 only move 1 month in whole fiscal year.

April VB surprised us with this prediction, I would be surprised if it doesn't move from next May-VB according to this prediction 

I think the ‘up to 10 weeks’ means in total, not each month. But they haven’t actually specified which is most unhelpful! 
 

 

Edited March 11 by appleblossom

[Clarke84 19]

On 3/10/2024 at 7:59 PM, Divinepath said:

Is the prediction monthly or for the the rest of FY 2024?

Seems like for the rest of FY 2024 based on this:

 

The above final action date projections for the Family and Employment categories indicate what is likely to happen throughout Quarter Three and Quarter Four of FY24. 

 

[xavier2014 21]

7 hours ago, Clarke84 said:

Seems like for the rest of FY 2024 based on this:

 

The above final action date projections for the Family and Employment categories indicate what is likely to happen throughout Quarter Three and Quarter Four of FY24. 

 

Looking at the October 2016 Visa Bulletin, it followed the predicted movement per month. The text is almost identical, with the only difference being the mention of months instead of quarters. The upcoming Visa Bulletin next month will likely clear up any confusion.

[Mundo254 49]

On 3/12/2024 at 3:23 AM, Clarke84 said:

Seems like for the rest of FY 2024 based on this:

 

The above final action date projections for the Family and Employment categories indicate what is likely to happen throughout Quarter Three and Quarter Four of FY24. 

 

 

Funny how whoever drafted the text had to be so complicated; Would have been easy to say, 'this fiscal year'. The 'throughout Q3 and Q4' is confusing and unnecessary. lol

 

Anyway, as said, we wait for next months VB, what they meant will be clearer.

Edited March 15 by Mundo254

[Mundo254 49]

10 minutes ago, Mundo254 said:

 

Funny how whoever drafted the text had to be so complicated; Would have been easy to say, 'this fiscal year'. The 'throughout Q3 and Q4' is confusing and unnecessary. lol

 

Anyway, as said, we wait for next months VB, what they meant will be clearer.

 

Probably also meant it may move 10 weeks Q3 (to June) and 10 weeks Q4 (to Sept), 20 weeks to the end of the FY. We wait!