All F2B Updates in This Thread (Part 2)

[xavier2014 21]

19 hours ago, RR159 said:

“The backlog will be cleared somewhere in the middle of next year”… famous last words:)  There’s no way of knowing that.

Mundo replied it. Look at the data

[xavier2014 21]

@GusHD Wow you are pretty close man. Just one VB movement away! If luck favors you, you could enjoy Christmas in the USA

[Waiting4ever2 12]

9 hours ago, xavier2014 said:

@GusHD Wow you are pretty close man. Just one VB movement away! If luck favors you, you could enjoy Christmas in the USA

 

Yeah! Although its frustrating being so close and nothing changing in 3 years.

[Waiting4ever2 12]

On 9/20/2023 at 8:15 PM, Mundo254 said:

 

We can try predict using existing data. The Immigrant Visa Backlog report and Visa Bulletin speaks volumes. They've held the dates of filing chart meaning they are receiving and DQuing limited cases at NVC. On the other hand, Backlog has reduced to 275 K and they are scheduling 40K Visas monthly. Meaning it will take approximately 5 months to return to pre covid levels (60K backlog). I think we will start seeing movement when the backlog comes down to pre covid levels...as explained, probably 5 months from now.

 

I may be wrong,🙂 Just another prediction but hopefully I'm right.

 

 

 

Yeah, your prediction does make sense:

• Every month they are reducing both the interview pending count and the number of documentarily qualified backlog.
  • September/23: 275,506 pending interview / 314,853 documentarily completed
  • April/23: 370,125 pending interview / 409,021 documentarily completed
  • January/23: 386,787 pending interview / 422,954 documentarily completed
  • August/22: 388,780 pending interview / 421,668 documentarily completed
  • April/22: 421,358 pending interview / 453,797 documentarily completed
  • January/22: 439,373 pending interview / 465,978 documentarily completed
• Clearly, the speed in 2023 has been faster than in 2022.
• As you mentioned, the average number of interviews in recent months stands at around 40k monthly.
• There's a noteworthy point in the report: This suggests that 60k is viewed as a "healthy" backlog, which is what they aim to achieve.
  • "Note: In Calendar Year 2019, on average, 60,866 applicants were pending the scheduling of an interview each month."
• Thus, if they maintain the current pace, it would take approximately 5 months to reach this "healthy" backlog level (so around Feb/Mar 2024).

It's worth noting that since there's no category-specific breakdown, we can take this as a worst-case scenario prediction.

 

[zaback21 29]

On 9/27/2023 at 4:40 AM, GusHD said:

 

Yeah, your prediction does make sense:

• Every month they are reducing both the interview pending count and the number of documentarily qualified backlog.
  • September/23: 275,506 pending interview / 314,853 documentarily completed
  • April/23: 370,125 pending interview / 409,021 documentarily completed
  • January/23: 386,787 pending interview / 422,954 documentarily completed
  • August/22: 388,780 pending interview / 421,668 documentarily completed
  • April/22: 421,358 pending interview / 453,797 documentarily completed
  • January/22: 439,373 pending interview / 465,978 documentarily completed
• Clearly, the speed in 2023 has been faster than in 2022.
• As you mentioned, the average number of interviews in recent months stands at around 40k monthly.
• There's a noteworthy point in the report: This suggests that 60k is viewed as a "healthy" backlog, which is what they aim to achieve.
  • "Note: In Calendar Year 2019, on average, 60,866 applicants were pending the scheduling of an interview each month."
• Thus, if they maintain the current pace, it would take approximately 5 months to reach this "healthy" backlog level (so around Feb/Mar 2024).

It's worth noting that since there's no category-specific breakdown, we can take this as a worst-case scenario prediction.

 

Backlog should also come down naturally since family immigration had it's filing date not moving or barely moving in the last 2-3 years so barely anyone being Documentarily Qualified. Only immediate relatives are/were getting added new. 

[Clarke84 20]

August 2023 Visa Issuances has been published. Dominican Republic received 1330 F2B visas for that month. 

[Waiting4ever2 12]

9 hours ago, Clarke84 said:

August 2023 Visa Issuances has been published. Dominican Republic received 1330 F2B visas for that month. 

All must have their priority date current.

 

I think they should have a separate category (like Philippines or Mexico) but this likely won't happen anytime soon and if it does it won't be retroactive.

[Mundo254 49]

1 hour ago, GusHD said:

All must have their priority date current.

 

I think they should have a separate category (like Philippines or Mexico) but this likely won't happen anytime soon and if it does it won't be retroactive.

 

Has there ever been some US-Dominican Republic immigration program that had Dominicans receive Huge Numbers of Green Cards in previous years???

 

Because Its puzzling to me why they have an unusually high number of FB Immigrant visas issued esp F2B. I'd expect a country like India, Mexico and the Philippines to have numbers like this but I have a feeling even if you move the Visa Bulletin a couple of months and consulates like India, Phillipines are asked to prioritize F2B, you still won't be seeing 1000 plus visas being issued like we are seeing with The Dominican Republic. Its crazier to think they are still receiving high numbers of F2B visas and the Visa Bulletin has not moved in 2 years.

 

Will be interesting to see what the October Visa Issuance numbers will be for Dominican Republic.

 

Any ideas why we are seeing this? 

Edited September 29, 2023 by Mundo254

[xavier2014 21]

The Dominican Republic has seemingly been a major factor in preventing the F2B visa category from progressing(not even a single day) over the last two years. Whoever is involved in handling the distribution of F2B visas does not seem to be favoring applicants from the rest of the world. Period. Lastly, someone posted a great comment on YouTube regarding the states of different administrations.

[Mundo254 49]

8 hours ago, GusHD said:

All must have their priority date current.

 

I think they should have a separate category (like Philippines or Mexico) but this likely won't happen anytime soon and if it does it won't be retroactive.

 

4 hours ago, xavier2014 said:

The Dominican Republic has seemingly been a major factor in preventing the F2B visa category from progressing(not even a single day) over the last two years. Whoever is involved in handling the distribution of F2B visas does not seem to be favoring applicants from the rest of the world. Period. Lastly, someone posted a great comment on YouTube regarding the states of different administrations.

 

1. There is no one individual/group responsible for distributing the Immigrant Visa Numbers to consulates. A miriad of factors guide this process. Entrenched in law and policy. So the question on favouritism is a bit outrageous.

 

2. Its inaccurate to compare visa issuance numbers through different administrations. Different times and circumstances. Most obvious one, Covid and The Trump ban played a huge role in the current backlogs we are seeing. Things were moving decently before all that.

 

Still doesn't explain why Dominican Republic is opening interview slots and Issuing F2B Visas in staggering numbers.

[zaback21 29]

Dominican Republic has received 2451 visas in August. This means they have officially crossed the 7% (25,620 visas) of the year by 1643 visas.  And they still have a month to go in September. I think it will be another huge month for them again. 

 

Not sure if 7% cap will be applied for them. Nothing for them in October visa bulletin though. 

Edited September 29, 2023 by zaback21

[xavier2014 21]

@Mundo254 maybe DR deserves more visas than the rest of the world, is there anything wrong with that

[Mundo254 49]

8 minutes ago, xavier2014 said:

@Mundo254 maybe DR deserves more visas than the rest of the world, is there anything wrong with that

 

Not a question of right or wrong, it's all about getting a meaningful explanation as to why their numbers are high, because that would also inform why our cases have stalled. Being more deserving as an explanation doesn't stick.

Edited September 29, 2023 by Mundo254

[RR159 12]

10 hours ago, Mundo254 said:

 

Not a question of right or wrong, it's all about getting a meaningful explanation as to why their numbers are high, because that would also inform why our cases have stalled. Being more deserving as an explanation doesn't stick.

Maybe it’s the “Dependent area limit is set at 2%?” So the F2B beneficiaries also included theirs dependent children but stayed within 9% in total?

F2B’s are not allowed to be married but nothing stops them from having dependent children.

[zaback21 29]

43 minutes ago, RR159 said:

Maybe it’s the “Dependent area limit is set at 2%?” So the F2B beneficiaries also included theirs dependent children but stayed within 9% in total?

F2B’s are not allowed to be married but nothing stops them from having dependent children.

I didn't count the 2% because if I did, it's not 9%, it like 10-12% if not more. These are just the primary applicant number of 25,620 visas which they have already crossed. If you want add the dependent (which is not counted) it's way way more. 

Edited September 30, 2023 by zaback21