How accurate is VJ's estimated timeline?

[Claireh703 18]

I'm a J1 (expired) and filed for AOS through marriage from the US.

 

How accurate do you think the timelines are that they give here?

 

I had my biometrics appointment on 2/18/21 and just had an email from this site saying they estimate me getting my EAD decision in August.  But when I look at other people's timelines, August seems ridiculous. I know that I have to relax with this process and be patient but I'm currently in the constantly-checking-for-updates stage!!

 

Also, does the USCIS send text alerts when things get updated?  If they do, I can stop signing on a hundred times a day and live my life!!

[payxibka 10,045]

49 minutes ago, Claireh703 said:

I'm a J1 (expired) and filed for AOS through marriage from the US.

 

How accurate do you think the timelines are that they give here?

 

I had my biometrics appointment on 2/18/21 and just had an email from this site saying they estimate me getting my EAD decision in August.  But when I look at other people's timelines, August seems ridiculous. I know that I have to relax with this process and be patient but I'm currently in the constantly-checking-for-updates stage!!

 

Also, does the USCIS send text alerts when things get updated?  If they do, I can stop signing on a hundred times a day and live my life!!

Not that accurate because it depends on far too many factors with limited data points 

[KAP2019 187]

Looks like really limited data for Albany. So I'd guess...not accurate.
https://www.visajourney.com/timeline/aoslist.php?vtype=0&op8=Albany+NY&interview=&xfr=&op1=3&op2=d&op3=&op4=1&op5=&cfl=0

Only 3 entries for 2020? And one is filled out incorrectly by the looks of it. 

[Skyman 323]

I think one of the problems with the estimates here is that a lot of people's cases are closed, approved or otherwise, and they don't return to enter that data. It's understandable that it wouldn't be a high priority but it does mean that many timelines are left incomplete and looking as if the case is taking forever. 

[Claireh703 18]

5 minutes ago, Skyman said:

I think one of the problems with the estimates here is that a lot of people's cases are closed, approved or otherwise, and they don't return to enter that data. It's understandable that it wouldn't be a high priority but it does mean that many timelines are left incomplete and looking as if the case is taking forever. 

That's what I figured but needed to hear someone else say it!  

 

Thank you all!

[Claireh703 18]

I just downloaded the "Lawfully" app which uses your receipt numbers to theoretically push through notifications when anything is updated (some people say it's not real time).  However, that also gives an estimated timeline and it based on the whole process rather than how this site relies on people updating their timelines so it's a lot more accurate.  It uses a lot more variants to more accurately compare your case with similar.  And it breaks down the estimated timeline with "20% chance of hearing in the next 4 weeks, 40% chance of hearing in the 4 weeks after that, etc".  So, if anyone is looking for a more accurate estimate, I recommend that.

[Celebi 136]

On 2/28/2021 at 10:44 PM, Claireh703 said:

Also, does the USCIS send text alerts when things get updated?  If they do, I can stop signing on a hundred times a day and live my life!!

Sign up for email alerts instead. I actually signed up for both but I never got the text messages. However, the email alerts are sent EVERY time they make changes your account.

[DrPearson 0]

On 3/6/2021 at 11:30 AM, Claireh703 said:

I just downloaded the "Lawfully" app which uses your receipt numbers to theoretically push through notifications when anything is updated (some people say it's not real time).  However, that also gives an estimated timeline and it based on the whole process rather than how this site relies on people updating their timelines so it's a lot more accurate.  It uses a lot more variants to more accurately compare your case with similar.  And it breaks down the estimated timeline with "20% chance of hearing in the next 4 weeks, 40% chance of hearing in the 4 weeks after that, etc".  So, if anyone is looking for a more accurate estimate, I recommend that.

I relate to your situation so much! I too have an (almost) expired J1 and am awaiting my EAD (and eventually my marriage-based green card 🤞). And I'm from the UK. Those emails with the estimates cause us panic too. Thanks for the tip about the Lawfully app. Just downloaded it and it seems very helpful. My wife will definitely find it useful. I'll sign onto the USCIS site a couple times a week for updates, but she's definitely like you "signing on a hundred times a day" and constantly checking the USCIS processing times.

[Claireh703 18]

14 minutes ago, DrPearson said:

I relate to your situation so much! I too have an (almost) expired J1 and am awaiting my EAD (and eventually my marriage-based green card 🤞). And I'm from the UK. Those emails with the estimates cause us panic too. Thanks for the tip about the Lawfully app. Just downloaded it and it seems very helpful. My wife will definitely find it useful. I'll sign onto the USCIS site a couple times a week for updates, but she's definitely like you "signing on a hundred times a day" and constantly checking the USCIS processing times.

Yep, I'm definitely no good at this waiting game and it's still so early in the process!  I'd just like to be working again!