2020 Election Thread

[Burnt Reynolds 5,058]

Nate Silver said the "trifecta" as they call it (Pres/House/Senate) was around 80%. 🤪

 

It's abundantly clear the polls and all the other statistical gymnastics performed by the industry don't represent reality.

 

At any rate, Nevada is expected a release of 50k votes in some 5-10 minutes. Might make the race a bit more clear there.

 

 

 

 

[designguy 1,179]

29 minutes ago, Burnt Reynolds said:

The questions I have about voter fraud stem from WI, MI, and PA, but with him being behind in GA now (Trump can still win that), the NV vote, AZ vote.. the possibility of voter fraud to any extent that affects outcomes in all these states (a couple of which I think is run by Republicans) is virtually nil.

Theyve been talking about fraud for months. I think it actually hurt them. Because now it seems like they start with the allegation of fraud and then go hunt for evidence rather than starting with evidence and then raising the issue. Total evidence of mass fraud so far? 0

[Cyberfx1024 7,980]

3 minutes ago, designguy said:

Theyve been talking about fraud for months. I think it actually hurt them. Because now it seems like they start with the allegation of fraud and then go hunt for evidence rather than starting with evidence and then raising the issue. Total evidence of mass fraud so far? 0

Hunt? They don't have to look to far to find some fishy stuff going on

[Burnt Reynolds 5,058]

Just now, designguy said:

Theyve been talking about fraud for months. I think it actually hurt them. Because now it seems like they start with the allegation of fraud and then go hunt for evidence rather than starting with evidence and then raising the issue. Total evidence of mass fraud so far? 0

I think there is some of that, but some of it I think is a byproduct of party fanaticism.

 

I would see posts on Republican SM or discussion boards where people would be surprised that with Wayne County or Philly left to go (I tried mentioning these repeatedly on election night), that they could pull 400-600k Dem votes out of their ###. All I had to do was look at the margins for 2016, expect something similar, and see those were going to be huge returns.

 

If Republicans were worried about voter fraud, they could've mitigated by stalling their own returns. There were plenty of other thing to do as well. 

[Crtcl Rice Theory 2,432]

 

From fivethirtyeight

According to the latest update from the Pennsylvania Department of State, there are 124,169 absentee ballots left to be counted, including 23,222 in Philadelphia County and 36,456 in Allegheny County (Pittsburgh). In addition, John Micek of the Pennsylvania Capital-Star reports there could be as many as 100,000 provisional ballots left.

 

https://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/2020-election-results-coverage/

[Burnt Reynolds 5,058]

4 minutes ago, Cyberfx1024 said:

Hunt? They don't have to look to far to find some fishy stuff going on

That's right, and there's some serious disparities to look at particularly ballots in a few of the aforementioned states where it looks like there was a plethora of ballots specifically marked for Biden (by the way the counts changed) and the downballots stayed the same (meaning they left the rest of the ballot empty, which makes zero sense). I watched how these changed and at first I thought, when seeing it in MI, James was naturally just getting more support from the black community but then it started happening in WI as well and around the same time. Unfortunately noticing suspicious trends like this (and others I mentioned in a prior page) isn't enough to do anything in lieu of proof.

 

There absolutely must be changes that all lean toward accuracy and giving more confidence in the system. Unfortunately just like with dismantling the immigration system, clearly some want to dismantle election integrity, not make it more robust. 

Edited November 6, 2020 by Burnt Reynolds

[designguy 1,179]

6 minutes ago, Burnt Reynolds said:

I think there is some of that, but some of it I think is a byproduct of party fanaticism.

 

I would see posts on Republican SM or discussion boards where people would be surprised that with Wayne County or Philly left to go (I tried mentioning these repeatedly on election night), that they could pull 400-600k Dem votes out of their ###. All I had to do was look at the margins for 2016, expect something similar, and see those were going to be huge returns.

 

If Republicans were worried about voter fraud, they could've mitigated by stalling their own returns. There were plenty of other thing to do as well. 

We will have to see of the mass absentee system will be standard going forward. If so they will HAVE to get on board with starting the count early. Otherwise you basically cant release any results until you count everything

[designguy 1,179]

8 minutes ago, Cyberfx1024 said:

Hunt? They don't have to look to far to find some fishy stuff going on

The great thing is that there are institutions in place. If they do find something they have the right and should bring it before the courts. Thats what they are there for. But in order to do so they will need substantial evidence. 

[Burnt Reynolds 5,058]

Just now, designguy said:

We will have to see of the mass absentee system will be standard going forward. If so they will HAVE to get on board with starting the count early. Otherwise you basically cant release any results until you count everything

After Florida I think you'll find more people that were skeptical of that on board with it now.

[yuna628 9,676]

1 minute ago, Burnt Reynolds said:

That's right, and there's some serious disparities to look at particularly ballots in a few of the aforementioned states where it looks like there was a plethora of ballots specifically marked for Biden (by the way the counts changed) and the downballots stayed the same (meaning they left the rest of the ballot empty, which makes zero sense). I watched how these changed and at first I thought, when seeing it in MI, James was naturally just getting more support from the black community but then it started happening in WI as well and around the same time. 

 

There absolutely must be changes that all lean toward accuracy and giving more confidence in the system. Unfortunately just like with dismantling the immigration system, clearly some want to dismantle election integrity, not make it more robust. 

If you're meaning the person only voted for the President and not for anyone else on the ballot and left it blank...?  I'd be interested to know if they were R's or I's that did it, but I actually know a few that marked their ballots that way in MD. Even when offered the chance to write-in, they just left it blank as a sort of protest. Personally? I did it with our two R candidates that got put on the ballot after committing fraud - no way would I vote for 'em. Left it blank and didn't see the point in writing in a random name.

[designguy 1,179]

Just now, Burnt Reynolds said:

After Florida I think you'll find more people that were skeptical of that on board with it now.

Agreed! Hopefully we can learn from these things and stop making stupid decisions

[yuna628 9,676]

3 minutes ago, designguy said:

We will have to see of the mass absentee system will be standard going forward. If so they will HAVE to get on board with starting the count early. Otherwise you basically cant release any results until you count everything

I really don't understand the phobia of counting mail-in ballots early. It's efficient and HELLO it doesn't create a freakin' mess for everyone to sort through. It works for our state, and it didn't seem to detract anyone from voting during early vote period or on election day either. The lines were around blocks.

[JeanneAdil 6,511]

I feel like a child sitting in divorce court to see which parent gets custody of me

[Burnt Reynolds 5,058]

The Nevada update we've been waiting for:

 

 

 

[Steeleballz 7,550]

3 hours ago, Dashinka said:

Hmm, just like they did for the last for years, or like they did in 2000 when Al Gore dragged it out for 5 plus weeks?  Btw, PA still has a major issue where the courts bypassed the legislators and created new election law that could come back to bite them.

 

   All those votes were sequestered. They may not even need to count them.