2020 Election Thread

[Steeleballz 7,550]

40 minutes ago, Nature Boy 2.0 said:

so are pollsters irrelevant now. ? 2 in a row

 

  As it comes down to the wire, I think they really only missed big on Pennsylvania. 

[designguy 1,179]

2 minutes ago, Steeleballz said:

 

  As it comes down to the wire, I think they really only missed big on Pennsylvania. 

It will be very interesting to see what the polling autopsy looks like.

 

Like how off was the polling w/ Latinos in FL?

[Steeleballz 7,550]

6 minutes ago, designguy said:

It will be very interesting to see what the polling autopsy looks like.

 

Like how off was the polling w/ Latinos in FL?

 

  I'm sure there are areas or groups of people that don't poll well. I think the polls have always correlated better with the popular vote (historically) and the popular vote has generally correlated well with the electoral vote. When it doesn't, the margin of error in the polling data seems to be higher. 

 

  A more accurate polling method would need to be more strongly weighted to reflect the impact that battle ground states have. 

[OriZ 3,157]

48 minutes ago, designguy said:

How so? They have bee saying for DAYS now that it would take a while for the absentee ballots to be counted and that the bulk of those votes have been democratic and that those numbers would be coming in after the in person voting so its very obvious Trump would come out with an initial lead and very plausible for Biden to close the gap

Some gaps can be closed...some are very hard to close. For those gaps to have closed the way they did means biden got alot more than 6 of every 10 votes in those ballots. Which is more than what they were estimating he had before that. Just comes down to math

[Cyberfx1024 7,980]

41 minutes ago, designguy said:

It will be very interesting to see what the polling autopsy looks like.

 

Like how off was the polling w/ Latinos in FL?

Rising had a good segment on it this morning and it was actually pretty good. They have been calling the alarm bell for months in regards to Biden's lack of latino outreach. 

https://www.facebook.com/2064147433830888/videos/483975189227345

Edited November 4, 2020 by Cyberfx1024

[Dashinka 24,497]

46 minutes ago, Steeleballz said:

 

  As it comes down to the wire, I think they really only missed big on Pennsylvania. 

They did?  I think there were some recent polls in WI still showing a double digit win for Biden.  MI polls were also off.  Regardless, the polling done is a joke, but as long as there are people willing to pay for junk, they will stick around.

[designguy 1,179]

7 minutes ago, Cyberfx1024 said:

Rising had a good segment on it this morning and it was actually pretty good. They have been calling the alarm bell for months in regards to Biden's lack of latino outreach. 

https://www.facebook.com/2064147433830888/videos/483975189227345

Thanks that was a good segment

[Cyberfx1024 7,980]

1 minute ago, designguy said:

Thanks that was a good segment

Sorry I don't have YouTube at work so I couldn't post that

[Steeleballz 7,550]

38 minutes ago, OriZ said:

Some gaps can be closed...some are very hard to close. For those gaps to have closed the way they did means biden got alot more than 6 of every 10 votes in those ballots. Which is more than what they were estimating he had before that. Just comes down to math

 

   It happened in Texas too. If the results from predominantly blue or red counties start coming in first, it can look like someone is running away with it when they are not. I agree though, at the time you posted 275 for Trump, it did look insurmountable leads in Wisconsin and Michigan. I was surprised they hadn't called it for Trump when I woke up this morning and then even more surprised to see Biden had the lead in those 2 states. 

[Burnt Reynolds 5,058]

Looks like this is the place to be over the coming days:

 

https://www.scotusblog.com/election-litigation/

 

It's really unfortunate that elections are not taken more seriously to ensure confidence in a vote. While I'd say the scope of failures and litigation dwarfs the hanging chads and Bush v. Gore, I really am skeptical any of these amount to anything that changes outcomes we're seeing unfold. It's just a big effing mess. 

[Nature Boy 2.0 8,370]

[designguy 1,179]

If it does end up being Biden what are the chances Trump will invite him to the whitehouse? 

[Nature Boy 2.0 8,370]

1 minute ago, designguy said:

If it does end up being Biden what are the chances Trump will invite him to the whitehouse? 

predictable behavior and Trump do not compute 

[Dashinka 24,497]

2 minutes ago, designguy said:

If it does end up being Biden what are the chances Trump will invite him to the whitehouse? 

If it is over, I suppose he will.  I just hope the media treats Old Joe and Kamala just like they treated Trump.

[Nature Boy 2.0 8,370]

6 minutes ago, Dashinka said:

If it is over, I suppose he will.  I just hope the media treats Old Joe and Kamala just like they treated Trump.

you joking right