Looking on the bright side: 15 reasons the polls may be wrong

[Burnt Reynolds 5,058]

I will surmise what I've been seeing in excitement and enthusiasm in rust belt states (not to mention a significant portion of Trump supporters hiding their support in nearly all polls), polling from more accurate pollsters like Trafalgar (for anyone taking this seriously and not just cut and pasting because they're trying to bait, look at their methodology vs. the others), some of the early voting in some other states:

 

Wisconsin favors Trump

Michigan favors Trump to a lesser extent

Pennsylvania favors Trump but barely (this is purely the turnout of the vast majority of PA vs. Philadelphia/Pittsburgh, and how the suburbs wind up)

Iowa favors Trump

Arizona favors Trump, but this state to me is deceptive given the greater number of transplants from rigidly Democrat states.. so there's much wilder swing potential here

North Carolina I'd say is like Arizona, and for the same reason.. people have been evacuating states like California, New York, Illinois, and flooding these other states, bringing the worst of those states' politics with them, the wild swing potential is high here

Texas, Georgia, and Florida are being represented as far closer than they are. The odds significantly favor Trump more than the polls suggest. Texas has seen a huge surplus of transplants from other states, but even in most cases, I don't think it's enough.

 

This all assumes a close election, but if one candidate galvanizes with any significance better than the other, like on election night, the things you'll likely see would be:

∙ If Biden is having a far better than expected turnout he's winning most of NC, AZ, PA, WI, MI, and inching closer in TX, GA, FL, IA.

∙ If Trump is having a far better than expected turnout he's winning most of PA, MI, WI, IA, AZ, FL, and is seriously contesting in states like NV, NH, and MN. 

 

What will be interesting the most to me is watching the minority turnout for Trump compared to 2016 and prior Republican candidates in recent times.

[Dashinka 24,628]

If Old Joe was even close in Texas, wouldn't he be going there?  Additionally, if the poll numbers in MI, WI, PA, etc. were so in his favor (+10 in some polls), why would he be wasting his time there?

 

As to the polls, we have had a few threads started showing huge leads for Old Joe nationwide, maybe these polls are saying there is no need for anyone who supports Joe to actually vote.

[Burnt Reynolds 5,058]

Michael Moore is in a panic again... 

 

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Michael Moore: Biden’s Poll Lead ‘Is Not An Accurate Count’

Quote

Speaking on The Hill TV’s “Rising,” Moore lamented the ease with which President Trump was able to cut Biden’s lead in half in the state of Michigan after he previously led the president by 16 points in the state. Moore warned Democrats that they should not believe the polls putting Biden so far ahead.

Quote

 

Ever since President Donald Trump’s rousing performance at the RNC, Moore has been warning Democrats not to get complacent. In late August, he shared a poll from Michigan that had Trump besting Biden by 2 points (47% to 45%), citing it as evidence that Democrats are not sounding the alarm loudly enough.

“Someone needs to pull the fire alarm NOW. Where are the stories about Trump gaining on Biden?” he tweeted. “Below’s a poll from Fri in Michigan. Last week Trump pulled within 4 pts of Biden. Now in one poll Trump is AHEAD of Biden in MI 47-45. Yet so many Dems convinced Trump’ll lose. DANGER!”

Prior to that, Moore took to Facebook on the Friday after the RNC to warn Democrats that the enthusiasm among Trump’s base is still “off the charts.”

 

 

https://www.dailywire.com/news/michael-moore-bidens-poll-lead-is-not-an-accurate-count

 

 

Oct 24 2016:

 

Watch the video in full to appreciate the media's bias + polling irrelevance and its patent disconnect from reality. 

 

Also.. some wisdom here:

 

 

People that are able to independently look at trends, rather than seeking confirmation bias, would be able to tell that Trump's odds of re-election are far better than Biden's of election. People like Michael Moore have an uncanny ability to gauge certain demographics, like he knows Michigan, yet he also parades around the awful candidates. Hint: Stop pushing pathetic candidates. 

Edited October 30, 2020 by Burnt Reynolds

[Dashinka 24,628]

Great ad from the idiots, I mean elitist of the Lincoln Project.