F4 Philippines, with the current Visa Bulletin how long?

[Paps IR5 6]

Hey guys, 

Looking at the current October visa bulletin 2020 for F4 siblings Philippines,  what is your prediction for someone who has a PD of May 2008?

 

One sister (beneficiary) has a daughter that is now 13yrs old..

Do you think her daughter will have a shot? 

 

Petitioned March 2008

PD May 2008

Approved May 2010.

 

 

 

Edited October 11, 2020 by Paps IR5

[Boiler 45,482]

I think she has a good shot.

[Paps IR5 6]

Thanks. What year do you think their PD will be current? 6yrs maybe? Give or tags a yr or so? 

[JFH 12,190]

*~*~*question about F4 category (siblings of USCs) moved from “bringing family members of LPRs” to “bringing family members of USCs”*~*~*

[Boiler 45,482]

So far out is is impossible to say, 6 years or so?

[SusieQQQ 11,586]

With two years to approval that puts her current cspa age at about 11, which means that as long as the petition gets current sometime in about the next ten years she will be able to immigrate with her family. That seems quite possible with where the latest PD is compared to yours, though I’d suggest you also watch closely next year to see how the numbers move once consular interviews restart after the Covid shutdowns plus (hopeful) end of the presidential ban on these visas - there is certain to be a backlog and it may be significant. 

[Paps IR5 6]

14 minutes ago, SusieQQQ said:

With two years to approval that puts her current cspa age at about 11, which means that as long as the petition gets current sometime in about the next ten years she will be able to immigrate with her family. That seems quite possible with where the latest PD is compared to yours, though I’d suggest you also watch closely next year to see how the numbers move once consular interviews restart after the Covid shutdowns plus (hopeful) end of the presidential ban on these visas - there is certain to be a backlog and it may be significant. 

Thanks. How do you calculate cspa? 

[SusieQQQ 11,586]

https://www.uscis.gov/green-card/green-card-processes-and-procedures/child-status-protection-act-cspa
 

If you are a family preference (including VAWA), employment-based preference, or DV applicant, your CSPA age is calculated by subtracting the number of days your petition was pending (pending time) from your age on the date an immigrant visa becomes available to you (age at time of visa availability). However, you must remain unmarried in order to qualify.

The formula for calculating CSPA age is as follows:

Age at Time of Visa Availability - Pending Time = CSPA Age

Example:

You are 21 years and 4 months old when an immigrant visa becomes available to you. Your petition was pending for 6 months. Your CSPA age is calculated as follows:

21 years and 4 months - 6 months = 20 years and 10 months

 

Age at Time of Visa Availability

The date the visa is considered available is the later of these two dates:

• The date the petition was approved; or
• The first day of the month of the Department of State Visa Bulletin that indicates that a visa is available for you in the Final Action Dates chart.

 

Pending Time

The length of time a petition was pending (pending time) is the number of days between the date that it is properly filed (filing date) and the approval date. The formula determining the length of time the petition was pending is as follows:

Approval Date - Filing Date = Pending Time

 

Example:

Your mother filed a petition for you on February 1, 2016. USCIS approved the petition on August 1, 2016.

August 1, 2016 - February 1, 2016 = 6 months

Edited October 11, 2020 by SusieQQQ

[aaron2020 11,651]

It's pretty hard to predict whether CSPA will help her or not.

In the October 2020 VB, the current PD is Jan 1, 2002, so those folks have been waiting for 18 years and 10 months.

In the October 2019 VB, the current PD was July 18, 1998, so those folks waited 21 years and 3 months.

 

In the October 2018 VB, the current PD was June 8, 1995, so those folks waited 23 years and 4 months.  

One can never be certain if a child will be able to come or not.

Give me the following dates exactly, and I will tell you when the child will age out; PD, approval date, and birthdate.  

[Paps IR5 6]

2 hours ago, aaron2020 said:

It's pretty hard to predict whether CSPA will help her or not.

In the October 2020 VB, the current PD is Jan 1, 2002, so those folks have been waiting for 18 years and 10 months.

In the October 2019 VB, the current PD was July 18, 1998, so those folks waited 21 years and 3 months.

 

In the October 2018 VB, the current PD was June 8, 1995, so those folks waited 23 years and 4 months.  

One can never be certain if a child will be able to come or not.

Give me the following dates exactly, and I will tell you when the child will age out; PD, approval date, and birthdate.  

Child born Nov 4, 2006

Petition March 2008

PD March, 16, 2008 

Approved May 2010

[aaron2020 11,651]

6 hours ago, Paps IR5 said:

Child born Nov 4, 2006

Petition March 2008

PD March, 16, 2008 

Approved May 2010

Hi,

 

It took USCIS about 2 years 1.5 to 2.5 months to approve the I-130 which means the child will age out if the PD is not current before the child turns 23 years 1.5 to 2.5 months.  There's a one month range since you didn't give an exact approval date; could be May 1 or May 31.

This means the PD has to be current by the December 2029 Visa Bulletin (if early May approval) or January 2030 VB (if late May approval).

 

Wishing you the best.