Trump drops below 40% in an NBC poll

[Crtcl Rice Theory 2,432]

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/biden-jumps-to-14-point-lead-nationally-after-debate-poll

[laylalex 7,300]

Just to be clear -- it was an NBC/WSJ poll.

[Dashinka 24,790]

Hmm, the IBD/TIPP poll is saying otherwise.

 

https://www.investors.com/news/joe-biden-lead-over-donald-trump-narrows-after-presidential-debate-ibd-tipp-poll/

[Burnt Reynolds 5,058]

I'd like anyone who thinks Trump is going to get under 40% of the irrelevant "popular vote" to raise their hand. Looking at you OP who posted this. 🙂

[Voice of Reason 10,298]

38 minutes ago, Burnt Reynolds said:

I'd like anyone who thinks Trump is going to get under 40% of the irrelevant "popular vote" to raise their hand. Looking at you OP who posted this. 🙂

(Sticking my hands in my pocket even though it’s 91* here today)

[Boiler 46,094]

I would put my money on Biden, I just do not see how Trump can come back, would need something really weird at this stage.

[Dashinka 24,790]

9 minutes ago, Boiler said:

I would put my money on Biden, I just do not see how Trump can come back, would need something really weird at this stage.

Possibly, but the WSJ/NBC Poll is still using Registered Voters.  Overall, it will be hard to come back if 14 points is the true difference, the interesting thing is hardly anyone would be voting for Biden out of enthusiasm.  I saw a Biden sign the other day that was interesting it said "Fine.  Biden.  But this is Bull----!" 

[Nature Boy 2.0 8,382]

2 hours ago, Dashinka said:

Hmm, the IBD/TIPP poll is saying otherwise.

 

https://www.investors.com/news/joe-biden-lead-over-donald-trump-narrows-after-presidential-debate-ibd-tipp-poll/

IBD/TIPP Tracking Poll: The Most Accurate Presidential Poll In America

https://www.investors.com/politics/ibd-tipp-tracking-poll-most-accurate-presidential-poll/

[Burnt Reynolds 5,058]

49 minutes ago, Dashinka said:

Possibly, but the WSJ/NBC Poll is still using Registered Voters.  Overall, it will be hard to come back if 14 points is the true difference, the interesting thing is hardly anyone would be voting for Biden out of enthusiasm.  I saw a Biden sign the other day that was interesting it said "Fine.  Biden.  But this is Bull----!" 

Registered voters who will respond. Doesn't say how many are being honest, no information on where the data skews (highly relevant given national popular vote doesn't decide elections), and we already know there are significant factors that are in play for polls that extend well beyond the margin of error that it simply doesn't/can't account for. Polls are only useful as predicates of outcomes if the environmental control of variables is high, especially with the confidence levels used. When they don't accurately represent certain regions (common for national popular votes), and when a statistically significant portion are known to either not answer or not tell the truth, it's really a useless poll. Their data analysts know this, but they can't state these caveats, nor can they just not release polls and be honest. Given the media has a significant bias of its own, the only reason they run this is simply to demoralize people they don't want voting and hope it affects the outcome, for the analysts/pollsters, its to further their own job. 

Edited October 5, 2020 by Burnt Reynolds

[Boiler 46,094]

Last time I know many people were motivated by what a deeply unpleasant and crooked candidate the Dems put up, obviously Joe has his issues but they have been ignored by the MSM and he is simply not on her level.

 

Trump was a bit of an unknown, he could have run his campaign much better, where is the debate about Reparations?

[Dashinka 24,790]

45 minutes ago, Burnt Reynolds said:

Registered voters who will respond. Doesn't say how many are being honest, no information on where the data skews (highly relevant given national popular vote doesn't decide elections), and we already know there are significant factors that are in play for polls that extend well beyond the margin of error that it simply doesn't/can't account for. Polls are only useful as predicates of outcomes if the environmental control of variables is high, especially with the confidence levels used. When they don't accurately represent certain regions (common for national popular votes), and when a statistically significant portion are known to either not answer or not tell the truth, it's really a useless poll. Their data analysts know this, but they can't state these caveats, nor can they just not release polls and be honest. Given the media has a significant bias of its own, the only reason they run this is simply to demoralize people they don't want voting and hope it affects the outcome, for the analysts/pollsters, its to further their own job. 

The same poll in 2016 had Hillary up +11% using a larger sample of likely voters.  In 2016 the poll sample was skewed +7 Democrats, the 2020 poll sample is skewed +9 Democrats if that tells you anything.  I took a little poll in my neighborhood today, of the 25 house that had presidential campaign signs/flags, 20 were for Trump.  That is just about as scientific as the WSJ/NBC poll.

[Dashinka 24,790]

32 minutes ago, Boiler said:

Last time I know many people were motivated by what a deeply unpleasant and crooked candidate the Dems put up, obviously Joe has his issues but they have been ignored by the MSM and he is simply not on her level.

 

Trump was a bit of an unknown, he could have run his campaign much better, where is the debate about Reparations?

I agree, Trump does have a track record this time, but considering he is being compared to a 47 year career Washington insider that has his own skeletons I think it is still a toss up.  Sure the MSM will not highlight any of those skeletons at this point and they are fine with the fact that Biden's campaign lids the day mid-morning.

[laylalex 7,300]

Right now both polls look like outliers, and should be treated accordingly. RealClearPolitics factor both of them in to their average of the polls, and come up with a +8.3% Biden advantage, which sounds more plausible in light of polling throughout the cycle. https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_biden-6247.html

[Dashinka 24,790]

5 minutes ago, laylalex said:

Right now both polls look like outliers, and should be treated accordingly. RealClearPolitics factor both of them in to their average of the polls, and come up with a +8.3% Biden advantage, which sounds more plausible in light of polling throughout the cycle. https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_biden-6247.html

They are both outliers which is why I posted the IBD/TIPP poll, but for some reason the MSM is focused on the WSJ/NBC Poll as gospel.

[Voice of Reason 10,298]

12 hours ago, laylalex said:

Just to be clear -- it was an NBC/WSJ poll.

Correct.  And he's a snippet from the original NBC poll:

 

Quote

Crucially, Mr Trump’s lead in key swing states including Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin remains at 4 percent by 47 percent 43 percent.

This gives a projected Electoral College split of 320 to Trump and 218 to Biden.

Headlines, baby!!