How much backlog will the US Embassy tolerate?

[user555 196]

In the past, when most people's documents had been accepted by the US government, it would take about 30 days to land an interview in Manila. With this virus, only expedited cases are being processed and those applicants are getting an interview. 

 

In 2019, there were 232,274 immigrant and nonimmigrant visas issued (I'm not sure if fiance and student visas were included in this). 

 

https://travel.state.gov/content/dam/visas/Statistics/AnnualReports/FY2019AnnualReport/FY19AnnualReport- TableIV.pdf
Philippines, Manila  
Immigrant Visas____25,770

Nonimmigrant Visas___ 206,504 

Total: 232,274

 

Interviews took place 5 days a week for 52 weeks per year = 260 days worth of interview

So that's 893 visas per day in 2019.

 

Assuming that 2019 has a similar amount of visas to 2020 and that the embassy has been shutdown since March 17, the backlog is growing.  

So in five months, there is the potential to have  89,300 visas not issued because of the closure. There are a few interviews trickling through with expedited cases, but I don't think there are that many visas being issued now. 

Reports have shown that the local embassy has a skeleton crew. 

 

 

BerhaeLee's US Immigration Timeline
July 17, 2020
Embassy Review: USEM is open for US citizen petitioners only. According to my husband, there are less than 10 people inside the embassy and the interview portion is quick.

Don0's Philippines US Consulate Review on July 20, 2020:

"Smooth process but there were only 3-4 Filipino officers and 3 American consuls."

 

So, this could turn into a situation where you have to wait 6-10 months for an interview in Manila. It's going to turn into a waiting game like the USCIS waiting period. How much backlog will the US Embassy tolerate? Will they hire more staff to help process all these cases? 

 

In the back of my mind, I think I remember reading the US Embassy processed around 300-400 per day, but I can't find the source. Even if it's that amount, that's still 3-6 months of waiting for an interview with this growing backlog. 

 

 

[Lucky2Lucky 2,526]

I highly doubt the current US government is going to hire staff for embassies worldwide to help with the backlog. I think the slowing down of issuing visas due to Covid is an unexpected plus for the current government..

[PWB 213]

Appreciate your information.  You would hope that the Embassy has a plan to attack the K1 backlog but that is more hope on my part than knowledge.   We interviewed February 18th and the process was horrid, mistakes every where.  Lost medical, lost NBI.  Visa issued one day withheld the next.  Embassy send paperwork to wrong address etc etc.  Now the medical timed out and they send passport back and told Fiancee to get new medical.  When will it end I don't know but thank God I got enough resources to wait them out.  Covid, Embassy mistakes and a political climate in the U.S. that is hostile towards immigration is a lot to overcome, but God willing we will prevail.

[Lucky2Lucky 2,526]

11 minutes ago, PWB said:

Appreciate your information.  You would hope that the Embassy has a plan to attack the K1 backlog but that is more hope on my part than knowledge.   We interviewed February 18th and the process was horrid, mistakes every where.  Lost medical, lost NBI.  Visa issued one day withheld the next.  Embassy send paperwork to wrong address etc etc.  Now the medical timed out and they send passport back and told Fiancee to get new medical.  When will it end I don't know but thank God I got enough resources to wait them out.  Covid, Embassy mistakes and a political climate in the U.S. that is hostile towards immigration is a lot to overcome, but God willing we will prevail.

Wow sounds like your process has been a nightmare I’m sorry you guys have had to gone through thAt. It sucks that all those things are/have been out of your control and it was the system that failed you. I do hope things get better in regards to visa processing (as well as processing petitions here in the US) but I don’t have hope for the next few months 😕 good luck on your journey though and you guys will prevail.

[flicks1998 1,044]

2 hours ago, PWB said:

Appreciate your information.  You would hope that the Embassy has a plan to attack the K1 backlog but that is more hope on my part than knowledge.   We interviewed February 18th and the process was horrid, mistakes every where.  Lost medical, lost NBI.  Visa issued one day withheld the next.  Embassy send paperwork to wrong address etc etc.  Now the medical timed out and they send passport back and told Fiancee to get new medical.  When will it end I don't know but thank God I got enough resources to wait them out.  Covid, Embassy mistakes and a political climate in the U.S. that is hostile towards immigration is a lot to overcome, but God willing we will prevail.

Actually the embassy is probably one of the best in the world to continue interviews based on how its set up.  Large outdoor waiting area to social distance, inside on the visa-side of the embassy is large, extremely high ceiling, good air circulation, thick glass windows between the people in the interview.  I think the bigger problem is being able to get the embassy staff to the embassy with all of the restrictions, even on GCQ.  Some places still require quarantine passes, public transportation is limited, etc etc.  Most of the US personnel that have families live in Forbes or Dasma housing villages and its not so easy to get to the Embassy in these times.  Others will live in condos in Makati or BGC, maybe a few around Ermita and those in Ermita may be the ones in the Embassy as they could walk.  The Filipino personnel will live all over Manila.  I think thats the biggest challenge and that wont change this year.  

 

Just to do the medical is a huge PITA.  No transportation so need to rent a car, will need to stay in a hote/Airbnb next to St Lukes as the public transportation is so limited.  However, in some Airbnb's the building is requiring a COVID test to be allowed to stay in that building which makes it impractical as it can take days for that.  They still arent using the rapid tests.  Hotels are a little more lenient on this with just temperature checks etc.

 

As long as USCIS and NVS stop their processes, the backlog should be manageable at the Embassy with maybe a few months backlog.  However if the Embassy keeps getting jammed with new cases it could create a huge mess.  

 

We are doing the medical Monday and I have a feeling it will have to be redone again as the 6-7 month period could pass, but all we can do is hope the embassy opens within that time frame and if its close to expiring try to push for an interview.  If you can make baby steps in your process, I would just do it even though the cost could be higher.  But there is no choice.

[payxibka 10,045]

There is very little non immigrant backlog as the most applied for visa is B1/2.  No travel options,  no need for a visa.

[Talako 781]

This was posted in a different thread.  Posted only for the curious.

 

[RO_AH 1,659]

11 hours ago, Luckycuds said:

I highly doubt the current US government is going to hire staff for embassies worldwide to help with the backlog. I think the slowing down of issuing visas due to Covid is an unexpected plus for the current government..

Since the current government has been focusing it's efforts against illegal immigration and non merit based immigration and has seemed to favor family based immigration, I am not sure where you are drawing your conclusion.

[payxibka 10,045]

32 minutes ago, RO_AH said:

Since the current government has been focusing it's efforts against illegal immigration and non merit based immigration and has seemed to favor family based immigration, I am not sure where you are drawing your conclusion.

He's on record to be against chain migration which is a significant component of family based immigration 

[user555 196]

5 hours ago, Talako said:

This was posted in a different thread.  Posted only for the curious.

 

Thanks. For nonimmigrant visas in Manila, January had over 17,000 visas issued and Feb had over 18,000 visas issued. July had around 2,800. 

 

For immigrant visas in Manila, January had over 1,500 visas and July had 236. 

 

So that's about an 85% decrease. 

 

https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/legal/visa-law0/visa-statistics/nonimmigrant-visa-statistics/monthly-nonimmigrant-visa-issuances.html (bottom of the page for fiscal year 2020)

 

[RO_AH 1,659]

8 hours ago, payxibka said:

He's on record to be against chain migration which is a significant component of family based immigration 

How does that change what I said? Has the current govern made any effort to stop chain migration? I was talking about what has been done not what has been said.

[payxibka 10,045]

2 hours ago, RO_AH said:

How does that change what I said? Has the current govern made any effort to stop chain migration? I was talking about what has been done not what has been said.

Chain migration is predominantly visa categories IR5 through F4.  Tell me please, what categories of family based immigration are currently suspended?