Waiting for a NOA2 from VSC for your I-129F?

[amrssnowangel 0]

Something has to be wrong...the two 2007 filers had the I129f approvals in 21 and 22 days...huh????????? how is that possible???????? im at 69!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Where are u getting THAT from???? The first one's noa1 date was April 17 thats about a 3 month wait...

The second ones noa1 was May 2 making it also almost 3 months.

OHHHHHHHHHHHH you are looking at the column where they document how many days SINCE they filed....wrong column...Look to the left for the columns that say noa1 and noa2 on the TOP.......you have to figure how many days manually. That last column is sayinghow many days since they FILED. Ignore that for now...just look at the noa1 date and noa2 date...if there is no noa2 date listed then they haven't been approved yet.

[BYRON-LEIDY 0]

I dont know where i was looking...where i went it had people from everywhere so tried to narrow it down to the Colombia filers.....and to tell you the truth i have no clue..the one that you posted was way clearer...THANK YOU!!!!!!!!!!!! Im losing it...lol....

[Bill y Bella 0]

Here are some more Visa Journey VSC statistics that might help spot trends.

Remember that these statistics only reflect Visa Journey Members and the sample size may be too small to be statistically relevant.

Any statisticians in the house who could provide some input?

This table lays out well in my Internet Explorer. Hopefully it will do the same in your browser. If not, please let me know.

I added Jan - May 2006 to the table, updated April, 2007 and modified the conclusions.

Bill

VISA JOURNEY VSC SUMMARY STATS

As of 7/31/07

K1 
	  Applications			 NOA2's		  Avg Days NOA1 to NOA2 
2006
Jan			34				   29					   18
Feb			32				   31					   36
Mar			44				   35					   71
Apr			51				   47					   80
May			38				   34					   60
Jun			23				   18					   63
Jul			27				   25					   40 
Aug			24				   21					   28
Sep			32				   28					   29
Oct			23				   16					   18
Nov			33				   29					   27
Dec			21				   21					   20
2007
Jan			24				   23					   18 
Feb			37				   35					   23 
Mar			44				   41					   31 
Apr			35				   23					   53 
May			35					5					   31 
Jun			30					0					   NA 
Jul			31					0					   NA

K3 
	  Applications			 NOA2's		  Avg Days NOA1 to NOA2 
2006
Jan			 3					3					   46
Feb			 3					3					   96
Mar			 4					1					  133
Apr			 6					4					   96
May			 5					5					   74
Jun			 8					7					   56
Jul			 6					6					   64 
Aug			 8					6					   81
Sep			 3					0					   NA
Oct			10					9					   70
Nov			 7					7					   40
Dec			10					9					   72
2007
Jan			 8					8					   72 
Feb			13				   10					   58 
Mar			17					9					   92 
Apr			09					1					   93 
May			 1					0					   NA 
Jun			10					0					   NA 
Jul			 0					0					   NA

Conclusions:

• K1 applications are processed much faster than K3's.
  
• It is difficult to identify any trend patterns for K3 applications.
  
• So far there is no evidence of a spike of applications from Visa Journey members to beat the fee increase.
  
• Processing times have been increasing significantly since January, 2007. K3 applications submitted in February are the only exception to this.
  
• So far May 2007 K1 processing times are shorter than April 2007, but it may be too soon to make many conclusions. Since 12 of 35 April petitions and 30 of 35 May petitions have not been adjudicated yet, processing time for both will ultimately be greater than is shown now.
  
• In 2006 K1 processing time increased every month starting in January, peaked in Aril and then trended downward the rest of the year.
  
• Despite the perception that VSC processing has slowed, when compared to the same month in 2007 the K1 processing is the same or less than it was in 2006. Unfortunately this does not appear that May will follow this pattern.
  

[Bill y Bella 0]

Here are some more Visa Journey VSC statistics that might help spot trends.

Remember that these statistics only reflect Visa Journey Members and the sample size may be too small to be statistically relevant.

Any statisticians in the house who could provide some input?

This table lays out well in my Internet Explorer. Hopefully it will do the same in your browser. If not, please let me know.

I added Jan - May 2006 to the table, updated April, 2007, modified the conclusions (twice).

Bill

VISA JOURNEY VSC SUMMARY STATS

As of 7/31/07

K1 
	  Applications			 NOA2's		  Avg Days NOA1 to NOA2 
2006
Jan			34				   29					   18
Feb			32				   31					   36
Mar			44				   35					   71
Apr			51				   47					   80
May			38				   34					   60
Jun			23				   18					   63
Jul			27				   25					   40 
Aug			24				   21					   28
Sep			32				   28					   29
Oct			23				   16					   18
Nov			33				   29					   27
Dec			21				   21					   20
2007
Jan			24				   23					   18 
Feb			37				   35					   23 
Mar			44				   41					   31 
Apr			35				   23					   53 
May			35					5					   31 
Jun			30					0					   NA 
Jul			31					0					   NA

K3 
	  Applications			 NOA2's		  Avg Days NOA1 to NOA2 
2006
Jan			 3					3					   46
Feb			 3					3					   96
Mar			 4					1					  133
Apr			 6					4					   96
May			 5					5					   74
Jun			 8					7					   56
Jul			 6					6					   64 
Aug			 8					6					   81
Sep			 3					0					   NA
Oct			10					9					   70
Nov			 7					7					   40
Dec			10					9					   72
2007
Jan			 8					8					   72 
Feb			13				   10					   58 
Mar			17					9					   92 
Apr			09					1					   93 
May			 1					0					   NA 
Jun			10					0					   NA 
Jul			 0					0					   NA

Conclusions:

• K1 applications are processed much faster than K3's.
  
• It is difficult to identify any trend patterns for K3 applications.
  
• So far there is no evidence of a spike of applications from Visa Journey members to beat the fee increase.
  
• Processing times have been increasing significantly since January, 2007. K3 applications submitted in February are the only exception to this.
  
• So far May 2007 K1 processing times are shorter than April 2007, but it may be too soon to make many conclusions. Since 12 of 35 April petitions and 30 of 35 May petitions have not been adjudicated yet, processing time for both will ultimately be greater than is shown now.
  
• In 2006 K1 processing time increased every month starting in January, peaked in Aril and then trended downward the rest of the year.
  
• Despite the perception that VSC processing has slowed, the 2007 K1 processing time is the same or less than it was in 2006 when compared to the same month. Unfortunately it does not appear that May will follow this pattern.
  

[*julez* 124]

Just to put yhings into perspective a bit, in 2006 when VSC processing times were much longer it was due to the IMBRA recall, when the backlog for that was caught up, they resumed their normal processing times. This year, you must bear in mind that they have added a whole new slew of states that VSC processes petitions for, so I wouldn't be surprised at all if VSC remains at a slower pace. I just don't think comparing processing times from VSC last year to this year is comparing apples to apples. The variables are very different.

[BYRON-LEIDY 0]

Thats true...im just a little confused because i see Maye and Paul receiving the NOA1 on 4/5 and then receiving the NOA2 on 4/18?????????? is this a mistake??????????? or am i reading something wrong??

[Jason-Sasha 1]

I've heard rumors that if a petition packet is put together in a very organized manner, professionally laid out complete with top-page hole punches, etc that it can possibly be approved on first inspection. Meaning a very quick decision. Its been a couple of years since I read this somewhere on this site. It makes sense that they would approve a "pretty" package that meets all requirements quickly, but I'm not sure about it. USCIS claims that they process petitions in the order they are received. But I think we all know this is not 100% accurate. Nevertheless I went through some extra trouble to make our package a breeze to look through. I think someone from the Discovery channel should do a documentary on the USCIS. Probably only interesting for us though. hmm...

There has to be some logical reason for random petitions that are approved so quickly.

[Bill y Bella 0]

Just to put yhings into perspective a bit, in 2006 when VSC processing times were much longer it was due to the IMBRA recall, when the backlog for that was caught up, they resumed their normal processing times. This year, you must bear in mind that they have added a whole new slew of states that VSC processes petitions for, so I wouldn't be surprised at all if VSC remains at a slower pace. I just don't think comparing processing times from VSC last year to this year is comparing apples to apples. The variables are very different.

Aw come on, it gives us something to keep our minds occupied.

I agree that it is dangerous to make assumptons about the future based on the past, but at the same time sometimes there are seasonal variations that are repeated every year.

Good point about IMBRA, I had not considered that and really don't know the details.

I don't see the evidence yet of the impact of the reallocation of states you describe. K1 lead times have actually been less than last year's so far and there has only been a small increase in the number of applications. With that said, I suspect that May's final results will reverse that trend.

I think there are 2 things we should all remember.

First, Visa Journey data does not reflect all the applications that are processed. Therefore, Visa Journey results for any given month may not be the same as those for the Service Center as a whole. It occurs to me that the number of VJ timelines is so small that a few problem applications might really skew the results.

Second, the key factor is not the number of service centers, but the number of adjudicators per application in each center. I do not know if this figure has increased, decreased or stayed the same in VSC. Does anyone know?

Best of luck to everyone, and keep the faith. Eventually they will get to all of us!

Bill

[Jason-Sasha 1]

Hey BSZoom42, any new updates for the list of pending NOA2's? Sitting way down at 83.

Would love that number to change...LOL

[jerzboi 0]

Congratulations H&S

[StillThePrettiest 3]

thanks for that link to the approvals spreadsheet, amrsssnowangel! I'd not seen that before and I suspect I will be checking it daily from now on

so maybe I shouldn't be thanking you...

[*julez* 124]

Just to put yhings into perspective a bit, in 2006 when VSC processing times were much longer it was due to the IMBRA recall, when the backlog for that was caught up, they resumed their normal processing times. This year, you must bear in mind that they have added a whole new slew of states that VSC processes petitions for, so I wouldn't be surprised at all if VSC remains at a slower pace. I just don't think comparing processing times from VSC last year to this year is comparing apples to apples. The variables are very different.

Aw come on, it gives us something to keep our minds occupied.

I agree that it is dangerous to make assumptons about the future based on the past, but at the same time sometimes there are seasonal variations that are repeated every year.

Good point about IMBRA, I had not considered that and really don't know the details.

I don't see the evidence yet of the impact of the reallocation of states you describe. K1 lead times have actually been less than last year's so far and there has only been a small increase in the number of applications. With that said, I suspect that May's final results will reverse that trend.

I think there are 2 things we should all remember.

First, Visa Journey data does not reflect all the applications that are processed. Therefore, Visa Journey results for any given month may not be the same as those for the Service Center as a whole. It occurs to me that the number of VJ timelines is so small that a few problem applications might really skew the results.

Second, the key factor is not the number of service centers, but the number of adjudicators per application in each center. I do not know if this figure has increased, decreased or stayed the same in VSC. Does anyone know?

Best of luck to everyone, and keep the faith. Eventually they will get to all of us!

Bill

Look, I'm not trying to ruin anyone's fun here. I just want people to set realistic expectations for getting their NOA2. Believe me, as a July filer, no one would be more happy than me if things went quicker, BUT I have set myself the expectation that I will be really lucky to get my NOA2 at around the 90 day mark.

I'm certainly not hanging my hopes on a seasonal trend, since the changes that have recently been made. Adding in several new states to the processing will have some impact. As you pointed out, what is reported to VJ is just a fraction of the actual numbers. Also, more July filers might find this site later in the game, once their frustraions of hearing nothing reach a peak. Not everyone finds VJ before they file.

Again, I'm not trying to be doom and gloom, but at the same token I'd certainly hate to fill people with false hope that things will magically pick up because its August. For the July filers, in particular, its just way too early to be building up such levels of stress. So, the numbers we have now may not be the numbers we have in 6 weeks.

Its great to have a postive attitude, but it must also be a realistic one. Good luck!

Edited August 1, 2007 by julezabelle

[soch 2]

I've heard rumors that if a petition packet is put together in a very organized manner, professionally laid out complete with top-page hole punches, etc that it can possibly be approved on first inspection. Meaning a very quick decision. Its been a couple of years since I read this somewhere on this site. It makes sense that they would approve a "pretty" package that meets all requirements quickly, but I'm not sure about it. USCIS claims that they process petitions in the order they are received. But I think we all know this is not 100% accurate. Nevertheless I went through some extra trouble to make our package a breeze to look through. I think someone from the Discovery channel should do a documentary on the USCIS. Probably only interesting for us though. hmm...

There has to be some logical reason for random petitions that are approved so quickly.

I also read the same thing... about the top hole punch. And yes I went through the extra trouble. My fiance and I actually joked about how I can do this as a profession bacause it was so organized. Who needs a lawyer, we thought. Well, the extra trouble has not made things go quicker for us.

[Zee Bee 61]

Honestly, I highly doubt 2 hole punches are going to mean the difference of being approved on day 60 vs day 90.

[soch 2]

Yeah, i guess the hole punches have done nothing for me... but honestly one does what one can!

OK!! It has been a while (july 27) since bszoom42 has posted his new list... but I checked and 4 couples on the K1 list have already been approved so that moves us up 4 slots...

The following couples were approved:

Andrii & Majel - NOA2 - 7/31

Jorge & Lindsey - NOA2 - 7/24

H & S - NOA2 - 7/31

T & Jae - NOA2 - 7/31

LOTS of couples were approved yesterday! Hope today is a good day!