Too little too late: The story of how Florida shattered the country's single-day COVID record

[Nature Boy 2.0 8,370]

47 minutes ago, Burnt Reynolds said:

Looking at the statistics cited above for FL:

Latest: +9344 cases, +77 deaths --- 0.8% death (mortality) rate

Total cases: 434,000, total deaths 5853 -- 1.3% death rate

ICU is at 75.7% utilization

 

Massive improvement.

 

 

What amuses me is sites like this:

https://covidactnow.org/us/fl/?s=775136

 

 

If you listened to this number juggling "estimations" hysteria peddling, you'd be under the impression that the ICU's are completely full the entire month, what a scary looking graph! Of course, anyone paying attention to what the hospitals themselves are reporting, as shown in my FL ICU link, not a single hospital is anywhere near 100% capacity, especially the largest, most watched ones, which I've noticed tend not to go over 90%. In any environment, business or health, this is an efficient metric, and a good sign that the hospitals can handle a serious influx, especially because knowledge/treatment is better, which helps that curve.

 

Anyone not peddling this fearmongering can actually get into the details of this rather than just post scary looking graphs without any context.

 

Death rate going down is indeed a good thing. None arguing that but cases skyrocketing and deaths going up is not a good thing.

 

Nobody is peddling fearmongering. All anyone has said is we need to do whatever is possible to slow the spread and bring deaths down, without crashing the economy.  Not sure why some of you think that is a hostile idea.

[Burnt Reynolds 5,058]

It's hostile because the measures being done are hostile, often enforced with political bias (e.g. 50 people max for churches and hundreds for others, no "singing", etc.), and you know they have little to nothing to do with health. When you describe something as "worsening", when in fact it's a byproduct of increased testing (more tests, more positives.. duh), and not an actual worsening situation, that is fearmongering.

[laylalex 7,284]

19 minutes ago, Nature Boy 2.0 said:

Death rate going down is indeed a good thing. None arguing that but cases skyrocketing and deaths going up is not a good thing.

 

Nobody is peddling fearmongering. All anyone has said is we need to do whatever is possible to slow the spread and bring deaths down, without crashing the economy.  Not sure why some of you think that is a hostile idea.

Also it's not good that hospitals are hitting 90% capacity, even if that's "efficient." It means that those locations are so slammed by the virus that the capacity rates have risen to 90% -- and that's a bad thing. The capacity rates need to be consistently dropping because that means the virus spread is lessening. What are the "normal" pre-COVID19 capacity rates? 

[Burnt Reynolds 5,058]

You must not have been paying attention, was cited repeatedly in these threads, by Florida health officers, most prominently, 80-90% capacity utilization is already normal (for them), and optimal even before the virus. That's just how it works in operations and capacity management. They also pointed out that it's not static, they can increase capacity to follow demand, this is also normal in operations.

 

If you think a high capacity by itself is bad, don't you dare look at the capacity of countries with universal. In Canada, it's way over 90% all the time. Yet, they aren't complaining, because it's not a bad thing. 

 

Having little capacity utilization would be bad, it means you have machines and operations and nothing happening, with a shoddy product/service output, also called wasting money. What's a concern to me is when I see many hospitals out in ######## nowhere with near 0-20% utilization. That's my biggest problem with US healthcare, and symbolic of why its so unnecessarily expensive, way too much waste.

Edited July 27, 2020 by Burnt Reynolds

[Voice of Reason 10,298]

53 minutes ago, laylalex said:

Also it's not good that hospitals are hitting 90% capacity, even if that's "efficient." It means that those locations are so slammed by the virus that the capacity rates have risen to 90% -- and that's a bad thing. The capacity rates need to be consistently dropping because that means the virus spread is lessening. What are the "normal" pre-COVID19 capacity rates? 

     

 

Psssst.... try more like 75% FL hospital bed usage (Adult ICU beds are around 81%).

 

Apparently, you have done nothing more than liking posts by people who are trying to prove me wrong with incorrect headlines.  If you go back and actually read a little into the factual sites I linked to more than once, you will see that covid bed use is down.  Not enough to claim it a miracle just yet.  The point bing... some people are posting "stats" repeatedly that are being proven false.  Why?  I can only imagine to fuel mass hysteria as Burnt is showing in his post.

 

Headlines are one thing, actual numbers are another.  And sure, they differ across tracking platforms.  But there are some that err worse than others, just as they did with the NYC death tolls a month or two back.  Kind of like that one headline that claims Florida has more cases than any other state.  It was false the day it was written, and it remains false to this day. Admittedly, FL is quickly catching up with CA and NY, and does have good potential to exceed them.  Which really isn't surprising, considering how many NYC folks also own homes in FL and the masses who flock here for the beaches during the summer.

[Nature Boy 2.0 8,370]

Finaly some "real"good news

 

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/27/coronavirus-outbreak-show-signs-of-slowing-in-arizona-texas-and-florida.html

Edited July 27, 2020 by Nature Boy 2.0

[Burnt Reynolds 5,058]

Sure is amazing how things can magically go from worse to better in one business day, especially when the data in that article is derived over the past week where I was told things were "getting worse" (so it was getting worse and better at the same time). Can't wait to see the mental gymnastics performed to justify this.

Edited July 28, 2020 by Burnt Reynolds

[Nature Boy 2.0 8,370]

17 minutes ago, Burnt Reynolds said:

Sure is amazing how things can magically go from worse to better in one business day, especially when the data in that article is derived over the past week where I was told things were "getting worse" (so it was getting worse and better at the same time). Can't wait to see the mental gymnastics performed to justify this.

Its kinda of self explanatory.  Things have not gone up since the 23rd when fla had 173 deaths. Here are some highlights for you. Like I said earlier I agree with you 95% of the time just not on this issue. Hopefully we can disagree respectfully. I am thinking of changing my screen name to " some people"

 

 

 

"Florida has just begun seeing its curve start to flatten since reaching a record-high"

"However, the state is still reporting growth in hospitalizations and fatalities as the virus continues to hit densely populated cities in southern Florida."

 

":U.S. Secretary of Health and Human Services Alex Azar said Monday that officials are starting to see a leveling-off of cases in hard-hit states due to people “stepping up to the plate.” 

“It’s due to the fact that people are actually wearing masks. They’re wearing their masks. They’re social distancing. They’re engaging in good personal hygiene,” Azar said on “Fox and Friends.”

 

 

 

[Burnt Reynolds 5,058]

A curve of "cases", which doesn't really mean much, when the whole idea over the last few months, along with reopening, has been to test as many people as possible, so it is entirely expected to get more positive cases. More positive cases was considered when both reopening and trying to get more tested, but getting more tested was a good thing.

 

Hence why we look to relevant metrics like how many of those virus-confirmed people are in the hospitals, or dying. Weird how the actual severity of cases is utterly meaningless, when contrasting its change has been among the most useful metrics of "worse" or "better". Why is that? 🤔

[Voice of Reason 10,298]

278 deaths in FL since 7/23 when 54 died.  

 

 

 

2 minutes ago, Burnt Reynolds said:

A curve of "cases", which doesn't really mean much, when the whole idea over the last few months, along with reopening, has been to test as many people as possible, so it is entirely expected to get more positive cases. More positive cases was considered when both reopening and trying to get more tested, but getting more tested was a good thing.

 

Hence why we look to relevant metrics like how many of those virus-confirmed people are in the hospitals, or dying. Weird how the actual severity of cases is utterly meaningless, when contrasting its change has been among the most useful metrics of "worse" or "better". Why is that? 🤔

I am so glad you can see thru the political smoke.

Edited July 28, 2020 by Voice of Reason

[Voice of Reason 10,298]

2 hours ago, Nature Boy 2.0 said:

 

“It’s due to the fact that people are actually wearing masks. They’re wearing their masks. They’re social distancing. They’re engaging in good personal hygiene,” Azar said on “Fox and Friends.”

 

 

 

    

 

Only one thing wrong with this particular BS claim... people in most of South Florida have been wearing masks daily since 1 March (almost 4 months now).  As in every store, every day.  The recent change, which is a joke at best, "requires" people to wear masks even at home.  Stupid.  Even the cops will tell you that they cannot enforce these ridiculous mandates.  They cannot issue a citation for not wearing a mask, because it's not a real law.

 

However, 95% of the people around here are doing it voluntarily.  For 4 months.  How the hell is that changing things in the past couple of days????

[Ban Hammer 13,334]

[Nature Boy 2.0 8,370]

34 minutes ago, Voice of Reason said:

    

 

Only one thing wrong with this particular BS claim... people in most of South Florida have been wearing masks daily since 1 March (almost 4 months now).  As in every store, every day.  The recent change, which is a joke at best, "requires" people to wear masks even at home.  Stupid.  Even the cops will tell you that they cannot enforce these ridiculous mandates.  They cannot issue a citation for not wearing a mask, because it's not a real law.

 

However, 95% of the people around here are doing it voluntarily.  For 4 months.  How the hell is that changing things in the past couple of days????

But I thought things were just fine and getting better and now you cussing at me like a salior  cause I said they are.  Does someone having a different opnion really threaten you that bad?  I just dont get it? 

 

[Dashinka 24,492]

19 hours ago, Nature Boy 2.0 said:

Its kinda of self explanatory.  Things have not gone up since the 23rd when fla had 173 deaths. Here are some highlights for you. Like I said earlier I agree with you 95% of the time just not on this issue. Hopefully we can disagree respectfully. I am thinking of changing my screen name to " some people"

 

 

 

"Florida has just begun seeing its curve start to flatten since reaching a record-high"

"However, the state is still reporting growth in hospitalizations and fatalities as the virus continues to hit densely populated cities in southern Florida."

 

":U.S. Secretary of Health and Human Services Alex Azar said Monday that officials are starting to see a leveling-off of cases in hard-hit states due to people “stepping up to the plate.” 

“It’s due to the fact that people are actually wearing masks. They’re wearing their masks. They’re social distancing. They’re engaging in good personal hygiene,” Azar said on “Fox and Friends.”

 

 

 

The interesting thing about the reported deaths number is that it does not represent deaths for one day,  it rather deaths that may have occurred days and weeks prior to the reported date.  It is good news FL and others are starting to see a peak to the number of new cases.  I see CA and FL have surpassed NY for total cases, but i doubt anyone will reach the number of deaths reported by NY.

[Nature Boy 2.0 8,370]

59 minutes ago, Dashinka said:

The interesting thing about the reported deaths number is that it does not represent deaths for one day,  it rather deaths that may have occurred days and weeks prior to the reported date.  It is good news FL and others are starting to see a peak to the number of new cases.  I see CA and FL have surpassed NY for total cases, but i doubt anyone will reach the number of deaths reported by NY.

Yup. That is the thing with statistics.  Its all about trends. Theoretically if we reported 100 deaths and  investigations proved 6 of them were misrepresented then more than likely there is going to be similar reporting errors in other samples. I track the results closely here in Ga and you can see the data be abnormally low on Sunday and Monday then spike on Tues or Wed. That is why it is so important to look at week totals and trends. I am sure some entities report slower than others.

 

Statistics usually tell the truth over time. 

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