Here's The Good COVID-19 News That's Being Buried By The Press

[Steeleballz 7,550]

2 hours ago, Dashinka said:

Hmm, 0.01 to 0.02% fatality rate using my math skills.

 

   Good math skill but you made a bad assumption. You calculated the death rate per capita, not the IFR. Unless you think everyone else is already immune. If not, then correct for the number of people who haven't been exposed and you are on the right track. The estimated national average is about 6% of the population exposed. Texas probably lower since that number is skewed higher by places like NY that have 15+% seroprevalence.

 

  For the numbers TB gave above, you are looking at somewhere between a 0.13% to 0.38% infection fatality rate. The estimated IFR is still currently just an estimate based on a second estimate with at least 2 assumptions thrown in. In other words it can still be off by a large margin in either direction. If we make a 3rd assumption, that the most susceptible or at risks groups were hit hardest in the initial phases, then the IFR would probably trend downward over time.

[Nature Boy 2.0 8,376]

1 hour ago, Burnt Reynolds said:

This. FR is going to plummet as cases rise, we've gotten much better at fighting the virus, the inflammatory response it provokes, etc. 

 

The hysteria has always been overblown, and thankfully states like Texas utilized a measured response rather than doing what the left, media, etc. wanted in shutting everything down again. The reopening will continue. Texas need to make sure to be sensible, because we know these people are going to try this again when back-to-school colds and flu season ramp up.

Agree. As I said in another post the protocols are much better. Plus its hitting a much less at risk population.  It is going to rise some with so many new cases, but nothing like before. Another point is it swept thru assisted living homes like wild fire.

 

Mortality rate here much higher than some places, about 25 per 100,000 postives

 

 

https://www.13wmaz.com/article/news/health/coronavirus/how-lethal-is-covid-19-heres-what-a-public-health-pro-says-is-known-and-unknown/93-9968b9bc-5063-4737-a52b-1f3033c42efa

"Out of Georgia's more than 10 million residents, the COVID-19 mortality rate for known infections is about 25 deaths per 100,000 people.

Smith notes that's more than 20 times higher than the same figure for the common flu."

[yuna628 9,686]

14 minutes ago, Nature Boy 2.0 said:

Agree. As I said in another post the protocols are much better. Plus its hitting a much less at risk population.  It is going to rise some with so many new cases, but nothing like before. Another point is it swept thru assisted living homes like wild fire.

 

Mortality rate here much higher than some places, about 25 per 100,000 postives

 

 

https://www.13wmaz.com/article/news/health/coronavirus/how-lethal-is-covid-19-heres-what-a-public-health-pro-says-is-known-and-unknown/93-9968b9bc-5063-4737-a52b-1f3033c42efa

"Out of Georgia's more than 10 million residents, the COVID-19 mortality rate for known infections is about 25 deaths per 100,000 people.

Smith notes that's more than 20 times higher than the same figure for the common flu."

Was reading something interesting the other day... we should be cautious in giving younger persons a sort of false sense of security that they will 'be ok', especially as cases are now trending younger. When crunching and comparing some statistics they were actually saying that a young person, once sick enough to enter into the hospital for care, has just as much high risk of dying as the elderly, and in some cases - higher. There is much we don't know about why it hits some harder than others and we also don't know about lingering effects for the future.

[Burnt Reynolds 5,058]

I'm not going to teach my kids that the world is a scary place. Chances are overwhelming that they'll be okay, even if there are nefarious people who want to make it not okay. Instilling fear into children means they don't bother taking risks in life, which is necessary to ever go somewhere, adds to depression potential/severity. They're taught to mitigate risks, including falling for people trying to put hysteria into their heads. They're taught the same thing people who wind up successful in life are taught, to take on challenges, not run from them. Look forward to my daughter going back to school in a few months, she's excited as well.

[Steeleballz 7,550]

2 hours ago, Nature Boy 2.0 said:

Agree. As I said in another post the protocols are much better. Plus its hitting a much less at risk population.  It is going to rise some with so many new cases, but nothing like before. Another point is it swept thru assisted living homes like wild fire.

 

Mortality rate here much higher than some places, about 25 per 100,000 postives

 

 

https://www.13wmaz.com/article/news/health/coronavirus/how-lethal-is-covid-19-heres-what-a-public-health-pro-says-is-known-and-unknown/93-9968b9bc-5063-4737-a52b-1f3033c42efa

"Out of Georgia's more than 10 million residents, the COVID-19 mortality rate for known infections is about 25 deaths per 100,000 people.

Smith notes that's more than 20 times higher than the same figure for the common flu."

 

   That's 25 deaths per 100000 population, not per 100000 positives. It's the population mortality rate again, not the infection mortality rate. They gave the infection mortality rate for Georgia of 3.86%, which would translate to 3860 deaths per 100000 positives. The 3.86% number is only taking confirmed positive cases, not asymptomatic. The actual mortality rate estimate would likely be somewhere in the range I gave for Texas above. That would be somewhere between 130 - 380 deaths per 100000 infected people. 

[Nature Boy 2.0 8,376]

4 minutes ago, Steeleballz said:

 

   That's 25 deaths per 100000 population, not per 100000 positives. It's the population mortality rate again, not the infection mortality rate. They gave the infection mortality rate for Georgia of 3.86%, which would translate to 3860 deaths per 100000 positives. The 3.86% number is only taking confirmed positive cases, not asymptomatic. The actual mortality rate estimate would likely be somewhere in the range I gave for Texas above. That would be somewhere between 130 - 380 deaths per 100000 infected people. 

The article said 25 per 100000 of known infections. However I know you and I am sure you checked it out. Tell me however is the article wrong or did I misread it ?

 

"Out of Georgia's more than 10 million residents, the COVID-19 mortality rate for known infections is about 25 deaths per 100,000 people.

Smith notes that's more than 20 times higher than the same figure for the common flu."

 

   

[Steeleballz 7,550]

20 minutes ago, Nature Boy 2.0 said:

The article said 25 per 100000 of known infections. However I know you and I am sure you checked it out. Tell me however is the article wrong or did I misread it ?

 

"Out of Georgia's more than 10 million residents, the COVID-19 mortality rate for known infections is about 25 deaths per 100,000 people.

Smith notes that's more than 20 times higher than the same figure for the common flu."

 

   

 

   I quoted it below from the article. Everything they listed is correct in it's own context. They are just talking about 2 different things. They start off with the "per 100000 residents" figure, then they give the case fatality rate for the number of known positives (3.86%) later in the article. Neither number is the actual infection fatality rate though.

 

    

Quote

mortality rate measures how many people have died across an entire population. The figure is calculated by dividing the number of confirmed deaths by the total population and then multiplying the result by 100,000 to get a "per 100,000 residents" figure.

 

[Cyberfx1024 7,980]

I love how the news are totally ignoring or outright discounting how much the protests probably played a part in this whole escalation of cases. 

 

 

[Nature Boy 2.0 8,376]

15 minutes ago, Cyberfx1024 said:

I love how the news are totally ignoring or outright discounting how much the protests probably played a part in this whole escalation of cases. 

 

 

But the gleefully reported 1 reporter covering the Trump rally got it

[Burnt Reynolds 5,058]

44 minutes ago, Cyberfx1024 said:

I love how the news are totally ignoring or outright discounting how much the protests probably played a part in this whole escalation of cases. 

They were complicit, of course. No punishment levied across the board. 

 

Nonetheless, power extensively used by Democrats, the left, media, to amplify their own agenda and voice, while trying to silence and muffle others. This is how every one of these trash movements since Trump has played out. Puts this whole charade of "truth to power" in perspective. Of course, this dog whistle about health, believing women, and race sends a message to people allied with this cause to use the same methodology, while weak people appear entirely handcuffed, psychologically terrified and frozen, and don't know what to do. This is an intended outcome.

Edited June 28, 2020 by Burnt Reynolds

[OriZ 3,157]

7 hours ago, yuna628 said:

Was reading something interesting the other day... we should be cautious in giving younger persons a sort of false sense of security that they will 'be ok', especially as cases are now trending younger. When crunching and comparing some statistics they were actually saying that a young person, once sick enough to enter into the hospital for care, has just as much high risk of dying as the elderly, and in some cases - higher. There is much we don't know about why it hits some harder than others and we also don't know about lingering effects for the future.

Right, once they enter the hospital. But they enter the hospital much less often.

[OriZ 3,157]

While it's true the percent positive might be up in some states, by and large the increased testing does play a role with the higher numbers. It's not a coincidence that confirmed cases doubled at the same time that...the number of tests doubled. 

 

I think the time to watch confirmed cases has long passed. What matters now is the serious or critical. I've been watching those this week and the whole time they stayed pretty steady around 57,000(WORLDWIDE). I'll keep following this figure,  the rest have pretty much exhausted their usefulness.

[Voice of Reason 10,298]

22 hours ago, Nature Boy 2.0 said:

Well we have beat it to death and its well articulated and basic science. Its a fact that the rise in new caes far out paces the rise in new tests  I posted a link in another thread.  So lets throw out the its all about more testing narrative. Postive rates have doubled in many states.

 

Now why is the death toll not skyrocketing yet.

 

1. Corona Virus is not an instant death sentence.  Symptoms can take time to develop.  Also a person can remain in ICU for weeks, so naturally deaths are going to lag behind postives.

 

2. The demographic of cases is shifting younger. Although 2 -17 year olds have dies in fla recently. 

 

3. We have developed much more effective protocols to treat the virus.

 

Do you think the we are being lied to about the numbers? Do you not think cases are not increasing. ? 

 

Bold 1:  Why are the number of cases nearly doubling since testing has nearly doubled?  I agree that a partial opening of various establishments will increase the number of cases, but would come nowhere near doubling the new cases alone.  No stats thus far would back up that claim.

 

Bold 2: Because the virus is nowhere near as deadly as we were lied to believe in the first place.  In the same timeframe that we have seen many covid deaths happen, automobile deaths are down, flu deaths are down, heart attacks are down, and so on.  We won't know for a year or two what the actual death toll from all those sources are.  But in the end, covid deaths will have overlapped MANY other categories of deaths.   If I am wrong, then the deaths from all the other causes will remain relatively constant AND we will have the 128K vivid deaths on top of the norms.

 

Not saying covid isn't a valid concern, and I know you are a high-risk person, but our bodies know how to fight off disease, and eventually we will beat this thing down just like we have the flu and AIDS.

[Nature Boy 2.0 8,376]

21 hours ago, OriZ said:

While it's true the percent positive might be up in some states, by and large the increased testing does play a role with the higher numbers. It's not a coincidence that confirmed cases doubled at the same time that...the number of tests doubled. 

 

I think the time to watch confirmed cases has long passed. What matters now is the serious or critical. I've been watching those this week and the whole time they stayed pretty steady around 57,000(WORLDWIDE). I'll keep following this figure,  the rest have pretty much exhausted their usefulness.

No doubt it plays a role nobody has said it dosent, but its not the total explanation.  Georgia is running about 40% increase in testing and about a 113% increase in cases. Hospitalization are but no where near the increase that would correspond with the percentage seen in the beginning. 

 

We shall see. Hopefully in the next 10 to 14 days deaths and hospitalizations dont spike. but I totally agree that is probably the number one matrix to watch.

[Voice of Reason 10,298]

1 hour ago, Nature Boy 2.0 said:

No doubt it plays a role nobody has said it dosent, but its not the total explanation.  Georgia is running about 40% increase in testing and about a 113% increase in cases. Hospitalization are but no where near the increase that would correspond with the percentage seen in the beginning. 

 

We shall see. Hopefully in the next 10 to 14 days deaths and hospitalizations dont spike. but I totally agree that is probably the number one matrix to watch.

GA looks pretty flat to me.  Ditto FL.  In fact, the entire South looks pretty good, overall.

 

https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/coronavirus-deaths-united-states-each-day-2020-n1177936

Edited June 30, 2020 by Voice of Reason