Here's The Good COVID-19 News That's Being Buried By The Press

[TBoneTX 45,571]

Figures clarified and brought back down to earth.

Quote

Here's The Good COVID-19 News That's Being Buried By The Press

By I & I Editorial Board
June 25, 2020

 

Once again, the U.S. is undergoing a media-driven COVID-19 scare after a "spike" in infections.  But as we noted earlier this week, the number of cases depends on the amount of testing.  The key gauge to watch is deaths.  They've been falling since April, and there's strong reason to believe they're lower than the official count suggests.  [...]

 

Continues here:  https://issuesinsights.com/2020/06/25/falling-covid-19-death-rates-are-even-smaller-than-they-look/

 

[Nature Boy 2.0 8,376]

https://www.forbes.com/sites/alexandrasternlicht/2020/06/11/coronavirus-deaths-could-spike-in-september-after-decrease-model-predicts/#5821a1ee61c9

 

Coronavirus Deaths Could Spike In September After Decrease, Model Predicts

[yuna628 9,686]

When you test more you will find more. That's a good thing not a bad thing. However, in some states there is a clear rise. While MD is testing more people (still not enough) there hasn't necessarily been a rise of cases found - rather its holding steady depending on the day and we aren't being swarmed with severe cases still. In other states this seems to be very different with younger and more severe cases being found not because they took a random test but because they've landed in the ICU. People can toss around figures all they want but we still have several issues ongoing that are going to cause a delay in information: 1) the number of potential asymptomatic people 2) reliability of the actual tests 3) the amount of time it takes from exposure to symptom severity is lengthy 4) the amount of time it takes the person to die it can be lengthy or short depending on variety of factors 5) lack of definitive answer on antibody protection.

[Steeleballz 7,550]

 

https://www.ksat.com/news/local/2020/06/25/governor-greg-abbott-pauses-additional-reopening-phases-due-to-surge-in-covid-19-in-texas/

 

  Unfortunately deaths will not continue decreasing if the number of infections keep rising. Bear in mind you don't see a spike in positives on Tuesday and then observe an increase in deaths on Wednesday. There is a lag period (both ways), but there will be a direct variable observed over time.

 

  We may have seen more young people getting infected in June, and obviously a lower death rate in those age groups, but that won't hold. Once the R0 gets high enough, it will become difficult to mitigate spreading to other groups as it did previously, and consequently more deaths. 

[Just Paul 4,595]

At least here in Arizona ICU bed count is the only real trustworthy indicator.   Both of us tested positive in early April.  Put 2 on the scoreboard.  Mary's nursing school "required" an antibody test to re-enroll.  If she gets tested, I get tested cuz she doesn't like bloodwork or shots,  Add 2 on the scoreboard.   Yes our government counted us twice.  But the lab couldn't get her the rest results in time for her class even though the did have mine.   She gets retested for the antibodies by the University of Arizona.  Add 1 on the scoreboard.  Granted after each test I get a call from the county health department wanting to know if we know how we got exposed.  I talked to the worker and each time they said each test gets counted as a new case even if it was previously reported.  The labs get paid and the country gets money allocated from the state for each infection.

 

Two real people = 5 positive people tested.

[yuna628 9,686]

5 minutes ago, Paul & Mary said:

At least here in Arizona ICU bed count is the only real trustworthy indicator.   Both of us tested positive in early April.  Put 2 on the scoreboard.  Mary's nursing school "required" an antibody test to re-enroll.  If she gets tested, I get tested cuz she doesn't like bloodwork or shots,  Add 2 on the scoreboard.   Yes our government counted us twice.  But the lab couldn't get her the rest results in time for her class even though the did have mine.   She gets retested for the antibodies by the University of Arizona.  Add 1 on the scoreboard.  Granted after each test I get a call from the county health department wanting to know if we know how we got exposed.  I talked to the worker and each time they said each test gets counted as a new case even if it was previously reported.  The labs get paid and the country gets money allocated from the state for each infection.

 

Two real people = 5 positive people tested.

That's correct. One person can have multiple tests done. My dad had several in the hospital, and most people here are required to have two negative tests before they are cleared. My sister's coworker had 3 positive tests and 2 negative tests before being cleared. They were not cleared within the 14 day period so had to quarantine for longer. Overall amount of tests are going to include those negative, those positive, those retested which could go in either direction, even false positives and negatives. MD keeps a tally of those positive and negative (but the negatives are going to include those always negative and those being retested to be cleared). Also anyone who now needs to have surgery or procedures need to obtain a negative test - I assume those get added to the tally too.

Edited June 25, 2020 by yuna628

[Nature Boy 2.0 8,376]

The test are kept in a database that have all your personal information, so that can do contact tracing. You can test positive many times but ti's still only one hit in the database .Remember the keyword in these Stats are "New cases Reported". 

 

Also as Balz pointed out. Deaths and ICU admissions lag way behind positive tests.  The percent positives are rising. Here in Ga Vent use is also spiking.Another factor is we are treating it more  effectively. 

 

Also as he said, young people are a much larger percent of positives know.  The virus has not just magically stopped killing people

Edited June 25, 2020 by Nature Boy 2.0

[Steeleballz 7,550]

2 hours ago, Paul & Mary said:

At least here in Arizona ICU bed count is the only real trustworthy indicator.   Both of us tested positive in early April.  Put 2 on the scoreboard.  Mary's nursing school "required" an antibody test to re-enroll.  If she gets tested, I get tested cuz she doesn't like bloodwork or shots,  Add 2 on the scoreboard.   Yes our government counted us twice.  But the lab couldn't get her the rest results in time for her class even though the did have mine.   She gets retested for the antibodies by the University of Arizona.  Add 1 on the scoreboard.  Granted after each test I get a call from the county health department wanting to know if we know how we got exposed.  I talked to the worker and each time they said each test gets counted as a new case even if it was previously reported.  The labs get paid and the country gets money allocated from the state for each infection.

 

Two real people = 5 positive people tested.

 

    Seroprevalence and active infection are both tracked, but they are not mixed together. The Arizona DOH site has them listed separately. If they are reporting serology multiple times, they are screwing up the seroprevalence number, not the number of infections. The bad part about that is it looks like there are more people who are already immune than there actually are. Laboratories do get paid every time they run the test, just like anyone else that performs a service. The serology test I looked at having done said I was ultimately responsible for the bill if they didn't get paid. My insurance will cover serology one time if ordered by a physician, but not if get the test without a doctors order. I'm not sure how many times the government will pay for it.

 

   We won't ever really get accurate numbers anyway though. Statistically, most people who had Covid-19 never actually needed to get tested.

 

[Nature Boy 2.0 8,376]

7 minutes ago, Steeleballz said:

 

    Seroprevalence and active infection are both tracked, but they are not mixed together. The Arizona DOH site has them listed separately. If they are reporting serology multiple times, they are screwing up the seroprevalence number, not the number of infections. The bad part about that is it looks like there are more people who are already immune than there actually are. Laboratories do get paid every time they run the test, just like anyone else that performs a service. The serology test I looked at having done said I was ultimately responsible for the bill if they didn't get paid. My insurance will cover serology one time if ordered by a physician, but not if get the test without a doctors order. I'm not sure how many times the government will pay for it.

 

   We won't ever really get accurate numbers anyway though. Statistically, most people who had Covid-19 never actually needed to get tested.

 

We had another 1700 new cases in GA. Already our biggest week ever with 3 days to go. Looks like testing numbers spiked peaked about may 21 and daily numbers have fallen a good bit. we ave had 23 total deaths in my county 3 in the past 2 days

Edited June 25, 2020 by Nature Boy 2.0

[Steeleballz 7,550]

34 minutes ago, Nature Boy 2.0 said:

We had another 1700 new cases in GA. Already our biggest week ever with 3 days to go. Looks like testing numbers spiked peaked about may 21 and daily numbers have fallen a good bit. we ave had 23 total deaths in my county 3 in the past 2 days

 

  We are not as bad here, but I think it's going to be a trend. I'm ot staying home, but I am not going to take any unnecessary risks now. We were going to go to a restaurant finally this weekend, but I think we'll just do takeout and eat at home. 

[Voice of Reason 10,298]

Positive tests matter not, IMO.

 

Deaths.  That’s the count that has teeth.

[laylalex 7,293]

That completely excludes hospitalizations. Are you saying that only deaths matter? What about people whose lives are upended -- with possibly life-changing consequences -- by having to stay in hospital, perhaps in an ICU on a ventilator. Deaths are not the only metric that matters. 

[Steeleballz 7,550]

28 minutes ago, laylalex said:

That completely excludes hospitalizations. Are you saying that only deaths matter? What about people whose lives are upended -- with possibly life-changing consequences -- by having to stay in hospital, perhaps in an ICU on a ventilator. Deaths are not the only metric that matters. 

 

  Yeah seriously. Nick Cordero has been in hospital for 3 months, leg amputated, can only communicate by blinking, and will need a lung transplant if he ever recovers enough to undergo that procedure.

[Burnt Reynolds 5,058]

2 hours ago, Voice of Reason said:

Positive tests matter not, IMO.

 

Deaths.  That’s the count that has teeth.

That's right. It's deliberate hysteria aimed at shutting things down. 

 

Smart people are ignoring it. Safer, smarter practices, reopening the economy. 

 

Notable serious fake news about Texas. They really want to trainwreck the US.

Edited June 26, 2020 by Burnt Reynolds

[laylalex 7,293]

Why is the governor of Texas telling people to stay home if there isn't a problem, and pausing the reopening?

 

Why is discounting hospitalizations appropriate?