The Hardest Thing About This Lockdown May Be Admitting to Ourselves That It Accomplished Absolutely Nothing

[TBoneTX 45,962]

Any objections to the facts or logic herein?

Quote

The Hardest Thing About This Lockdown May Be Admitting to Ourselves That It Accomplished Absolutely Nothing

Posted at 2:15 pm on May 23, 2020 by Michael Thau

 

The most important thing President Trump needs to understand right now is that it’s not too late.

Though the truth isn’t going to get any less ugly or momentous, he can still face it. He just needs to summon up all his considerable strength and admit how badly he’s been played.

He’s not alone.  [...]

 

Continues here: https://www.redstate.com/michael_thau/2020/05/23/839511/  

[Lemonslice 4,961]

Well, without confinement, we would have been celebrating 100K+ deaths sooner!

[TBoneTX 45,962]

If we were celebrating them earlier without the lockdown and with more consequent herd immunity, then...

[Steeleballz 7,550]

15 hours ago, Lemonslice said:

Well, without confinement, we would have been celebrating 100K+ deaths sooner!

 

   Beyond that, we have managed to keep mortality on the lower end of the estimates, and we have learned a few things that will help more people survive and recover going forward as we continue to cope with the infection. We are also hopefully that much closer to effective treatments and/or a vaccine.

[Steeleballz 7,550]

15 hours ago, TBoneTX said:

If we were celebrating them earlier without the lockdown and with more consequent herd immunity, then...

 

   We would possibly reach herd immunity sooner, but with many more deaths along the way. The author makes a good comment about the difficulty oin changing course once someone is heavily invested in something. Unfortunately that works both ways. The author should look in the mirror. He has bought heavily into his own agenda.

[Ban Hammer 13,491]

3 hours ago, Steeleballz said:

 

   Beyond that, we have managed to keep mortality on the lower end of the estimates, and we have learned a few things that will help more people survive and recover going forward as we continue to cope with the infection. We are also hopefully that much closer to effective treatments and/or a vaccine.

According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), the current "best estimate" for the fatality rate among Americans with COVID-19 symptoms is 0.4 percent. The CDC also estimates that 35 percent of people infected by the COVID-19 virus never develop symptoms. Those numbers imply that the virus kills less than 0.3 percent of people infected by it—far lower than the infection fatality rates (IFRs) assumed by the alarming projections that drove the initial government response to the epidemic, including broad business closure and stay-at-home orders.

https://reason.com/2020/05/24/the-cdcs-new-best-estimate-implies-a-covid-19-infection-fatality-rate-below-0-3/

[Burnt Reynolds 5,058]

Trump placated them, whether its his strategy or not, the long term damage is done. It was a bad move by Trump. Nonetheless, it was educational in understanding the depth some will go to, to weaponize situations like this, whether as a power grab, and/or in their attempt to get their way politically.

 

I warned that the vast majority of people trying to shut down the economy were doing so not because they cared about people's health, not because they were attempting to be rational, but because they wanted Trump, and to a degree, the US, to suffer for electing him. Some wanted power, but the common overlapping issue spanning anti-Trump segments was punishment with the 2020 elections as the goal. The fruition of that is already being played out now that PR season for the general is underway, it'll only get bigger, and louder. Some smarter people could be subtle, but these people are flat out deranged, so subtlety is out the window thanks to astringent Trump. They believe what they inflicted is going to hurt Trump because they know Trump's popularity comes from his economic success. Every time you see one of them try and hit Trump for the results of the virus hysteria they wanted (shutting things down=>the unemployment, economic chaos, etc.), you see exactly who and what they are. The first step to dealing with a threat is understanding them. 

Edited May 25, 2020 by Burnt Reynolds

[Steeleballz 7,550]

16 minutes ago, Ban Hammer said:

According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), the current "best estimate" for the fatality rate among Americans with COVID-19 symptoms is 0.4 percent. The CDC also estimates that 35 percent of people infected by the COVID-19 virus never develop symptoms. Those numbers imply that the virus kills less than 0.3 percent of people infected by it—far lower than the infection fatality rates (IFRs) assumed by the alarming projections that drove the initial government response to the epidemic, including broad business closure and stay-at-home orders.

https://reason.com/2020/05/24/the-cdcs-new-best-estimate-implies-a-covid-19-infection-fatality-rate-below-0-3/

 

 

   Right, a much lower estimate than what was originally projected, but we do recognize that the estimate does (and did) change based on the actions that we take. We were operating at capacity for ~6 weeks. The relationship between the number of infected people vs the number of deaths is only linear to the extent that the capacity to treat people can accomodate those additional numbers. We would not have been able to. 

[OriZ 3,157]

22 hours ago, TBoneTX said:

If we were celebrating them earlier without the lockdown and with more consequent herd immunity, then...

No one even knows for sure yet who develops immunity(not everyone seem to), when(seems to happen later than most start testing negative) or for how long(could only be a few months). It's not something anyone can count on at this point.

 

7 hours ago, Steeleballz said:

 

   Beyond that, we have managed to keep mortality on the lower end of the estimates, and we have learned a few things that will help more people survive and recover going forward as we continue to cope with the infection. We are also hopefully that much closer to effective treatments and/or a vaccine.

You know what I noticed, while daily rate of increase has certainly declined, rate of deaths has declined much more. Even in a linear chart, you can see it bending, which you can't with cases. I think there are 3 possible explanations for that:

 

1. rate of increase declined to a lesser degree because of the amount of testing, finding many people who have little to no symptoms. Something else hinting at that is the fact that of all cases, now only 2% are considered severe, whereas early on that figure was 20%.

 

2. Better treatment. We know more, understand a little more about what we should or shouldn't do, so people are receiving better treatment

 

3. Lower probability but there might be some mutations making the virus less deadly

[Voice of Reason 10,298]

20 minutes ago, OriZ said:

No one even knows for sure yet who develops immunity(not everyone seem to), when(seems to happen later than most start testing negative) or for how long(could only be a few months). It's not something anyone can count on at this point.

 

You know what I noticed, while daily rate of increase has certainly declined, rate of deaths has declined much more. Even in a linear chart, you can see it bending, which you can't with cases. I think there are 3 possible explanations for that:

 

1. rate of increase declined to a lesser degree because of the amount of testing, finding many people who have little to no symptoms. Something else hinting at that is the fact that of all cases, now only 2% are considered severe, whereas early on that figure was 20%.

 

2. Better treatment. We know more, understand a little more about what we should or shouldn't do, so people are receiving better treatment

 

3. Lower probability but there might be some mutations making the virus less deadly

All possible.  As is #4.

 

4. It was never as bad as we were told it was.

[Steeleballz 7,550]

1 hour ago, OriZ said:

No one even knows for sure yet who develops immunity(not everyone seem to), when(seems to happen later than most start testing negative) or for how long(could only be a few months). It's not something anyone can count on at this point.

 

You know what I noticed, while daily rate of increase has certainly declined, rate of deaths has declined much more. Even in a linear chart, you can see it bending, which you can't with cases. I think there are 3 possible explanations for that:

 

1. rate of increase declined to a lesser degree because of the amount of testing, finding many people who have little to no symptoms. Something else hinting at that is the fact that of all cases, now only 2% are considered severe, whereas early on that figure was 20%.

 

2. Better treatment. We know more, understand a little more about what we should or shouldn't do, so people are receiving better treatment

 

3. Lower probability but there might be some mutations making the virus less deadly

 

    I think it is a mix of the first two.

 

    I usually get the call with positive results when I'm charge, (about twice a week), and it's consistently 3-4 per shift. Some point after I get called, I'll get the results faxed (both positive and negative) and where we used to get 5-10 negative results a shift, we are now we are getting more than 100. The testing capacity is a lot better. We are also getting everything back within 24 hours now. We need to get that down to about 4-8 hours, but it's exponentially better than it was a month ago.

 

  We are also able to get convalescent plasma whenever we need it at the moment. It used to be limited to 1 or 2 patients a day so we had to triage who would benefit most. For the moment there is enough to treat everyone, and it has been helping many people.

[Nature Boy 2.0 8,378]

and most importantly we didnt break the medical support system. It also gave us some time to figure out what we are dealing with and how to proceed.