Will COVID-19 Go Away in the Summer?

[Orangesapples 1,954]

Explains why some viruses are seasonal and how COVID 19 has the potential to also be seasonal but also why it's different when it comes to pandemics and how pandemics follow different patterns. 

Edited May 21, 2020 by Orangesapples

[OriZ 3,157]

It already is

[yuna628 9,700]

13 minutes ago, OriZ said:

It already is

No evidence that it's going away here though. With increased testing we're getting 1200-1800 new cases a day and I think we're pretty high on the list of cases. Granted we have not reached peak hot weather.. our weather has been completely odd since last year. 

[Orangesapples 1,954]

1 hour ago, OriZ said:

It already is

Did you watch the video? It's short and easy to understand, not a big commitment. 

 

In short, it might be seasonal but even seasonal viruses such as influenza, don't stop spreading during their off season when there is a pandemic. 

[TBoneTX 45,961]

It will come back (roaringly, in the media) about a month to 6 weeks before November 3.

[Steeleballz 7,550]

 

  The transmissibility will decrease as the temperature rises, but will be offset by less social distancing and the fact that most people haven't been exposed, so no herd immunity for a while yet. Infections will persist at lower level. Once we get past August, we will probably see infections increase as the weather cools, and it will likely still be considered pandemic next winter. The cycle will repeat with the most likely long term result being endemic seasonal infection that hopefully will not be as virulent as the initial outbreak, but still a severe and potentially deadly version of the common cold. 

[Neonred 3,632]

6 minutes ago, Steeleballz said:

 

  ..... version of the common cold. 

That tells me a lot.

Edited May 23, 2020 by Neonred

[OriZ 3,157]

8 hours ago, Orangesapples said:

Did you watch the video? It's short and easy to understand, not a big commitment. 

 

In short, it might be seasonal but even seasonal viruses such as influenza, don't stop spreading during their off season when there is a pandemic. 

I did watch it, actually.

 

It might not be "going away" as fast or completely(really the flu never does either) and it's certainly spreading in certain places with unique circumstances such as brazil. But the effect of weather can definitely be felt even if to a lesser degree.

 

I totally disagreed with the example they gave there of Singapore. They had it under control and it started spreading almost entirely in migrant dormitories, with very little community transmission and a rate of increase of 2-3% per day.

 

Personally I'm finding it increasingly harder to not let my guard down these days as the virus has almost all but disappeared where we are. I hope it's a coma and not a nap.

[OriZ 3,157]

9 hours ago, yuna628 said:

No evidence that it's going away here though. With increased testing we're getting 1200-1800 new cases a day and I think we're pretty high on the list of cases. Granted we have not reached peak hot weather.. our weather has been completely odd since last year. 

I hear ya. We still had low 30s a week ago. Today we almost touched 90.

[Steeleballz 7,550]

4 minutes ago, Neonred said:

That tells me a lot.

 

   Historically, these viruses attenuate after several years. The most virulent strains of the virus burn themselves out, and the most susceptible people also die. If there is some comfort that the long term outlook should not be that bad, it may be best not to celebrate until we get past the short term. Disclaimer, I am not always right on these things either. It would be convenient if viruses all stuck to the same pattern, but there are a lot of variables that can change things up too.

[Voice of Reason 10,298]

3 hours ago, Steeleballz said:

 

  The transmissibility will decrease as the temperature rises, but will be offset by less social distancing and the fact that most people haven't been exposed, so no herd immunity for a while yet. Infections will persist at lower level. Once we get past August, we will probably see infections increase as the weather cools, and it will likely still be considered pandemic next winter. The cycle will repeat with the most likely long term result being endemic seasonal infection that hopefully will not be as virulent as the initial outbreak, but still a severe and potentially deadly version of the common cold. 

nope, nope, and NOPE.