Why No COVID-19 Models Have Been Accurate, And How To Fix That

[90DayFinancier 910]

The models we're not accurate, they were low on the impact.

 

Coronavirus modelers raise projected U.S. death toll and lengthen state-by-state recovery timeline

The timeline has slipped to the right and the projected death toll has trended upward in a new projection from the creators of a closely watched computer model for the course of the U.S. coronavirus outbreak.

Tonight’s update from the University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation raises the outlook for the cumulative U.S. death toll through Aug. 4 from the 67,641 fatalities projected on April 22 to a new figure of 74,073.

That’s creeping closer to the death toll of 81,114 that IHME laid out in its first projection, way back in late March. Since then, the figures have gone as high as 93,000 and as low as 60,000.

 

https://www.geekwire.com/2020/coronavirus-modelers-raise-projected-u-s-death-toll-lengthen-timeline-state-state-recovery/

 

[Voice of Reason 10,298]

22 hours ago, OriZ said:

Personally, I feel pretty good about the model/s I've posted starting a couple months ago vs what actually happened.

 

So when do you see the US hitting 2,000,000 deaths from covid?

[Lil bear 4,255]

21 hours ago, Steeleballz said:

 

   

  We can probably get a good idea with what happens in southern hemisphere countries over the next few months.  

My thoughts are that there isn’t really a similar country to the US whose COVID 19 situation is similar enough to allow for useful

comparisons or future indicators for  the US over the next months 

The 2 first world Southern Hemisphere countries must similar to the US.. Australia and New Zealand .. have attained a far greater control of the infection

and will face far lower peaks into the future than the US.  Their return to a working economy will have fewer setbacks caused by renewing the restrictions as they become necessary. The subsequent outbreaks will be able to be contained faster and with less disruption that what the US will experience .. the horse will

bolt a whole lot faster and get a whole lot further away before the US states can rein it in again. 

[OriZ 3,157]

1 hour ago, Voice of Reason said:

So when do you see the US hitting 2,000,000 deaths from covid?

I never saw us hitting 2,000,000 deaths from covid, I thought it was quite ludicrous from the start.

[OriZ 3,157]

13 hours ago, Dashinka said:

I was fine with the measures to flatten the curve and take the stress off the medical system.  My main beef is with the changing narrative of the purpose of all these measures.

I don't think the narrative should change, and in most cases(except for those places in CA, maybe MI? I don't know) I don't think it's really being changed. It was important, now it's important to see how we can coexist with this thing.

[Steeleballz 7,550]

1 hour ago, Lil bear said:

My thoughts are that there isn’t really a similar country to the US whose COVID 19 situation is similar enough to allow for useful

comparisons or future indicators for  the US over the next months 

The 2 first world Southern Hemisphere countries must similar to the US.. Australia and New Zealand .. have attained a far greater control of the infection

and will face far lower peaks into the future than the US.  Their return to a working economy will have fewer setbacks caused by renewing the restrictions as they become necessary. The subsequent outbreaks will be able to be contained faster and with less disruption that what the US will experience .. the horse will

bolt a whole lot faster and get a whole lot further away before the US states can rein it in again. 

 

  Not really as a model for comparison, just if the fall and winter season temperatures tend to increase viral transmission rates.  

[Ryan H 3,815]

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