Coronavirus Truths

[yuna628 9,700]

2 minutes ago, Dashinka said:

Glad to hear some Drs. are choosing to stay open.  Most here in MI are not.  My niece is an NP and she is required to only do telemedicine with her patients.  I haven’t talked to my other niece who is an NP in Iowa, but her mom said there it is mostly business as usual.  I agree, if an ER visit is necessary no one should hold back, but of course we have a media over hyping this thing so bad people are absolutely scared which is leading to the stories of empty ERs.  I really doubt people suddenly stopped having strokes, or heart attacks.  In my opinion, this, the media hype, is going to be the biggest factor in getting back to some semblance of normalcy. 

Well, the people most likely to need an ER are going to be those at the highest risk. It's understandable being scared and I don't think media has as much to do with it as you think. My dad's previous ER and hospital long term outings resulted in becoming infected with atypical hospital born bugs that we are having a hard time getting control of these days, so possible COVID exposure is a real fear and he checks off all the boxes of risk factors. People haven't stopped having strokes and heart attacks. I believe I saw a chart yesterday that showed both those numbers ontop of COVID patients in one city. There was a reduction, but I think it's pretty obvious why. Less risky behavior could possibly result in less of these events happening. Car accidents and crime have also gone down. Not drugs of course. Plenty of that. I know another study for NYC had a lot of patients coming in with heart attacks and strokes were also COVID patients in younger persons - the disease was causing it. Telemedicine has it's uses, but as the doctor said to me earlier he'd really like to ideally have my dad come in within a few weeks time. I can only do so much basic nurse skills/vitals for him.

[Steeleballz 7,550]

2 hours ago, Dashinka said:

So we should have started before the WHO declared it a pandemic?  Would physical distancing and banning large gathering such as sporting events been enough?  Again, not something we will ever know.  Did we have less death with or because of Covid19 due to the measures?  Who knows.  But as data comes in it should be used evenly, but that is not what we are seeing.

 

 But now we are starting to see these stories.

 

https://www.sacbee.com/news/coronavirus/article241841476.html

 

    If we started before it was declared a pandemic, we could have had minimal restrictions. It's possible social distancing and masks alone may have been enough to get the R0 down if we started earlier. The longer we waited, the more restrictions it took to do that. I agree we won't ever know for sure.

 

   I'll ask again, what data have you seen recently that indicates a different approach would have worked? Certainly not the antibody test results. We're not even sure how reliable they are, but all they are doing is confirm what was already suspected. We knew there were a lot of asymptomatic infections. We just didn't have an exact number. Now we have a better idea, but I still don't think we have that. 

[Dashinka 24,741]

53 minutes ago, Steeleballz said:

 

    If we started before it was declared a pandemic, we could have had minimal restrictions. It's possible social distancing and masks alone may have been enough to get the R0 down if we started earlier. The longer we waited, the more restrictions it took to do that. I agree we won't ever know for sure.

 

   I'll ask again, what data have you seen recently that indicates a different approach would have worked? Certainly not the antibody test results. We're not even sure how reliable they are, but all they are doing is confirm what was already suspected. We knew there were a lot of asymptomatic infections. We just didn't have an exact number. Now we have a better idea, but I still don't think we have that. 

We don’t have exact numbers on anything and yet decisions are being made based off them and questionable models.  The main numbers I see are the hospital admissions due to Covid19 being way way down.  The entire reason restrictions were put in place was to reduce the stress on the hospitals which is what it did.  Now it is time to start lifting those restrictions and not treat people like idiots.  Now we are seeing that in some states, which the media is loving because they smell chum in the water.  I even saw a story where the CO Governor was asked some tough questions,  but other states are doubling down.  There early seems to be no rhyme or reason to some of the decisions.  We had a business that wanted to do an outdoor movie here in MI in a drive in fashion except no concessions, the cars were going to be spaced twenty feet apart, but the governor stepped in and said no, she was worried that someone would stop and get gas touching a gas nozzle on the way there or home.  Seems over the top, but whatever.  We will deal with the bankruptcies, unemployment, and homelessness in due course I suppose.  

[Steeleballz 7,550]

21 minutes ago, Dashinka said:

We don’t have exact numbers on anything and yet decisions are being made based off them and questionable models.  The main numbers I see are the hospital admissions due to Covid19 being way way down.  The entire reason restrictions were put in place was to reduce the stress on the hospitals which is what it did.  Now it is time to start lifting those restrictions and not treat people like idiots.  Now we are seeing that in some states, which the media is loving because they smell chum in the water.  I even saw a story where the CO Governor was asked some tough questions,  but other states are doubling down.  There early seems to be no rhyme or reason to some of the decisions.  We had a business that wanted to do an outdoor movie here in MI in a drive in fashion except no concessions, the cars were going to be spaced twenty feet apart, but the governor stepped in and said no, she was worried that someone would stop and get gas touching a gas nozzle on the way there or home.  Seems over the top, but whatever.  We will deal with the bankruptcies, unemployment, and homelessness in due course I suppose.  

 

  I am more concerned for states that don't seem to have a plan in place going forward. That was the other side of it. I always felt like ours had a concrete timeline where restrictions would start being pulled back. Shutting down was supposed to be a short term remedy and the time should have been used to evaluate ways of getting things going again, while keeping some of the social distancing and crowd guidelines. I thought our governor was fairly transparent at what they were looking at and where they were going towards reopening. They have talked about some of the short term changes, as far as what will be added next month and what might need to continue, but they have also said things like they may want to continue online schooling to start next year.

[Dashinka 24,741]

2 minutes ago, Steeleballz said:

 

  I am more concerned for states that don't seem to have a plan in place going forward. That was the other side of it. I always felt like ours had a concrete timeline where restrictions would start being pulled back. Shutting down was supposed to be a short term remedy and the time should have been used to evaluate ways of getting things going again, while keeping some of the social distancing and crowd guidelines. I thought our governor was fairly transparent at what they were looking at and where they were going towards reopening. They have talked about some of the short term changes, as far as what will be added next month and what might need to continue, but they have also said things like they may want to continue online schooling to start next year.

It may not sound like it, but that is my main concern as well.  It is frustrating to live in a state where the governor appears to have no plan.  She keeps saying she is following the data,  it that does not seem evident.

[OriZ 3,157]

6 hours ago, Dashinka said:

Yes, we used completely outrageous models that were projecting millions of deaths to make decisions.  If we are now actually using the new data, it is really hard to see.  Additionally, you cannot make any conclusions regarding the measures taken as we have already discussed.  Any strategy taken would put you in a paradox situation which cannot be proven.  Politicians will take credit for saving lives which can never be proven by data.  As I have always maintained, actions needed to be taken, and human nature would most likely lead to people doing the right thing.  Now did that require putting 30 million out of work, and closing hospitals and causing ancillary victims due to lack of other medical care?  A balance was necessary, but a balance was not what we got at least in most states.

The problem is human nature never actually leads to people doing the right thing. We've seen what people did in France, LA, and other places before harsher actions were taken.

[Dashinka 24,741]

7 hours ago, OriZ said:

The problem is human nature never actually leads to people doing the right thing. We've seen what people did in France, LA, and other places before harsher actions were taken.

So in short, people are idiots and need to be lead by a large strong totalitarian government?

[OriZ 3,157]

5 hours ago, Dashinka said:

So in short, people are idiots and need to be lead by a large strong totalitarian government?

Never said anything about totalitarian government.

 

Taking action when it comes to people's health and well being does not make one totalitarian. I'm all for small government 97% of the time. Government's roles should literally be limited only to situations where safety and well being is at stake. This is one of those situations.

[Dashinka 24,741]

1 hour ago, OriZ said:

Never said anything about totalitarian government.

 

Taking action when it comes to people's health and well being does not make one totalitarian. I'm all for small government 97% of the time. Government's roles should literally be limited only to situations where safety and well being is at stake. This is one of those situations.

So now these orders are in place for people’s safety?  I thought they were for flattening the curve?  As to totalitarian, maybe I should have said police state.  I have no idea what the governors of CA, OR, or WA are doing with their orders, but it seems obvious they either have no plan, or they have ulterior motives for doubling down.

[laylalex 7,300]

Newsom has rolled out his four stage plan this week. https://la.eater.com/2020/4/28/21240193/california-governor-gavin-newsom-economy-business-reopening-news-los-angeles-coronavirus

[TBoneTX 45,962]

1 hour ago, Dashinka said:

what the governors [...] are doing with their orders

"The stay-at-home order is extended to May 8th, or 15th, or 30th."

What's magical about those dates, and on what basis?

[OriZ 3,157]

5 hours ago, Dashinka said:

So now these orders are in place for people’s safety?  I thought they were for flattening the curve?  As to totalitarian, maybe I should have said police state.  I have no idea what the governors of CA, OR, or WA are doing with their orders, but it seems obvious they either have no plan, or they have ulterior motives for doubling down.

Wait, are you telling me flattening the curve is just about making a chart look pretty?

[Dashinka 24,741]

1 hour ago, OriZ said:

Wait, are you telling me flattening the curve is just about making a chart look pretty?

It was to make sure we had adequate medical services available, spreading the chaos over time, not changing the area under the curve.

[Steeleballz 7,550]

9 minutes ago, Dashinka said:

It was to make sure we had adequate medical services available, spreading the chaos over time, not changing the area under the curve.

 

     You don't consider that an issue of public safety? 

[Dashinka 24,741]

23 minutes ago, Steeleballz said:

 

     You don't consider that an issue of public safety? 

I never said it did, I am only saying that was the purpose.