Experts demolish studies suggesting COVID-19 is no worse than flu

[90DayFinancier 910]

Frustrated statisticians and epidemiologists took to social media this week to call out substantial flaws in two widely publicized studies trying to estimate the true spread of COVID-19 in two California counties, Santa Clara and Los Angeles.

The studies suggested that far more people in each of the counties have been infected with the new coronavirus than thought—that is, they estimated that true case counts in the two counties are up to 85 times and 55 times the number of the currently confirmed cases in the counties, respectively. Accordingly, this suggests that COVID-19 is far less deadly than thought. The large case counts in relation to unchanged number of deaths put COVID-19’s fatality rate in the same range as seasonal flu.

How dangerous is this?
We dig into the details of the studies below, but it's important to note that neither of them have been published in a scientific journal, nor have they gone through standard peer-review for scientific vetting. Instead, they have been posted online in draft form (a commonplace occurrence amid a rapidly evolving pandemic that inclines researchers to have fast access to data, however uncertain).

 

https://arstechnica.com/science/2020/04/experts-demolish-studies-suggesting-covid-19-is-no-worse-than-flu/

[Voice of Reason 10,298]

What's the flu death toll compared to the covid death toll?  

I'll wait for your reply.

[90DayFinancier 910]

52 minutes ago, Voice of Reason said:

What's the flu death toll compared to the covid death toll?  

I'll wait for your reply.

You will need to formulate your question. Deathtoll by hospitalization, contact, positive test, general population?  What?

 

There have already been more Covid-19 deaths than from pneumonia and flu combined (2019) and the virus has been around for 4 months and only widespread for weeks. 

I noticed you have no rebuttal for the points in the article.  Hi ahead, if this is no worse than the flu, then trek around with no precautions. Good luck.

 

[Voice of Reason 10,298]

15 minutes ago, 90DayFinancier said:

You will need to formulate your question. Deathtoll by hospitalization, contact, positive test, general population?  What?

 

There have already been more Covid-19 deaths than from pneumonia and flu combined (2019) and the virus has been around for 4 months and only widespread for weeks. 

I noticed you have no rebuttal for the points in the article.  Hi ahead, if this is no worse than the flu, then trek around with no precautions. Good luck.

 

I did "formulate my question".  Your lack of understanding doesn't change it at all.  

As to your second paragraph, all incorrect. 

 

5 months, same as the flu.

Globally, the World Health Organization(WHO) estimates that the flu kills 290,000 to 650,000 people per year. 

195,000 dead from covid thus far, which is actually over reported, but we don't know by how much.  Let's err on the low side and assume 10% of those covid deaths are from something else.  That means about 175,500.  Pretty sure that 175k AND 195k are each lower than 290-650k.

 

I do not need to rebut the OP, because the numbers don't support it at all.

[Dashinka 24,741]

8 hours ago, 90DayFinancier said:

You will need to formulate your question. Deathtoll by hospitalization, contact, positive test, general population?  What?

 

There have already been more Covid-19 deaths than from pneumonia and flu combined (2019) and the virus has been around for 4 months and only widespread for weeks. 

I noticed you have no rebuttal for the points in the article.  Hi ahead, if this is no worse than the flu, then trek around with no precautions. Good luck.

 

The virus has only been around for four months that we know of?  Is that based on information from China?  
 

As talked about several times, the numbers, both the numerator and denominator, that are used to calculate overall mortality are still quite dubious.  The antibody studies occurring in many places suggest that the infection is much more widespread then anyone knows or was aware of.  The simple fact is that this pandemic is far less fatal then is being reported, but we still don’t know the total numbers yet.  Additionally, as stated several times, the flu numbers are simply estimates based on samples from the field which is why we get a range in the mortality every year.  If the numbers suggest Covid19 has a mortality in the same ballpark as the seasonal flu even without a partially effective or partially distributed vaccine, this is really telling, and the fact that we are seeing similar results in New York and Miami and probably more, (Michigan is running a test, but they are only testing healthcare workers, so those results will most likely be skewed) tells us that we are dealing with this virus a little more drastically than we should.

[Ban Hammer 13,491]

9 hours ago, 90DayFinancier said:

You will need to formulate your question. Deathtoll by hospitalization, contact, positive test, general population?  What?

 

There have already been more Covid-19 deaths than from pneumonia and flu combined (2019) and the virus has been around for 4 months and only widespread for weeks. 

I noticed you have no rebuttal for the points in the article.  Hi ahead, if this is no worse than the flu, then trek around with no precautions. Good luck.

 

ok, i'll bite.  what is the deathtoll by:

- hospitalization

- contact

- positive test

- general population

[OriZ 3,157]

Total pretzel twisting here as well. The death toll from covid is likely the same or several times higher than the flu, 100% not lower. 

 

Even if we assume it is the same though, Anyone I've heard who has had it, or read about, described it's like something they have never felt before. Regardless of the death toll itself, it sure feels worse than the flu even in milder cases, and leaves longer lasting more serious long term effects and complications.

 

Corona is not the flu. It's not the same as the flu. It is different, and in a worse way, by almost every metric.

[Dashinka 24,741]

30 minutes ago, OriZ said:

Total pretzel twisting here as well. The death toll from covid is likely the same or several times higher than the flu, 100% not lower. 

 

Even if we assume it is the same though, Anyone I've heard who has had it, or read about, described it's like something they have never felt before. Regardless of the death toll itself, it sure feels worse than the flu even in milder cases, and leaves longer lasting more serious long term effects and complications.

 

Corona is not the flu. It's not the same as the flu. It is different, and in a worse way, by almost every metric.

I don’t think anyone is saying Covid19 is the same illness as the flu.  That doesn’t mean the numbers themselves cannot be compared.  I have also talked to a lot of people that had mild forms of it, and of course hear stories that the news media is reporting, and it certainly is a different illness.  There are a lot of stories of a mysterious illness circulating back in late November, and December, was it Covid19, no one knows for sure, but there seems to be a lot of folks showing antibodies in many places.

[Voice of Reason 10,298]

58 minutes ago, OriZ said:

Total pretzel twisting here as well. The death toll from covid is likely the same or several times higher than the flu, 100% not lower. 

 

Even if we assume it is the same though, Anyone I've heard who has had it, or read about, described it's like something they have never felt before. Regardless of the death toll itself, it sure feels worse than the flu even in milder cases, and leaves longer lasting more serious long term effects and complications.

 

Corona is not the flu. It's not the same as the flu. It is different, and in a worse way, by almost every metric.

Now YOU'RE twisting words.  No, covid is not like the flu disease wise.  But they both kill, and the deaths from the flu are still higher (thankfully) than from covid.  So by THAT metric, it is still less deadly than the flu.

[yuna628 9,700]

32 minutes ago, Dashinka said:

I don’t think anyone is saying Covid19 is the same illness as the flu.  That doesn’t mean the numbers themselves cannot be compared.  I have also talked to a lot of people that had mild forms of it, and of course hear stories that the news media is reporting, and it certainly is a different illness.  There are a lot of stories of a mysterious illness circulating back in late November, and December, was it Covid19, no one knows for sure, but there seems to be a lot of folks showing antibodies in many places.

I would like to know why we should compare a virus which is not even like the flu in any single way either structurally, which we have no immunity single properly working test, treatment, or vaccine, how it spreads, or how it kills people, or how it leaves survivors. We do not even have a properly working antibody test and the science simply isn't there to prove having antibodies provide any protection whatsoever.

 

Perhaps the greatest disservice the CDC did was to ever state it causes mild flu-like illness. People ran with it and convinced themselves it *was* the flu. Heard about Nick Cordero? He's not old. Lost his leg, brain is pretty fried, will need a pacemaker, likely be on oxygen for the rest of his life and that's if he survives. Still in a coma and after 12 days still can't wake up. Testing negative finally, but what will his life be like if he ever wakes? Vulnerable for the rest of his life to new infection, body destroyed..

[Dashinka 24,741]

11 minutes ago, yuna628 said:

I would like to know why we should compare a virus which is not even like the flu in any single way either structurally, which we have no immunity single properly working test, treatment, or vaccine, how it spreads, or how it kills people, or how it leaves survivors. We do not even have a properly working antibody test and the science simply isn't there to prove having antibodies provide any protection whatsoever.

 

Perhaps the greatest disservice the CDC did was to ever state it causes mild flu-like illness. People ran with it and convinced themselves it *was* the flu. Heard about Nick Cordero? He's not old. Lost his leg, brain is pretty fried, will need a pacemaker, likely be on oxygen for the rest of his life and that's if he survives. Still in a coma and after 12 days still can't wake up. Testing negative finally, but what will his life be like if he ever wakes? Vulnerable for the rest of his life to new infection, body destroyed..

 Because major economic decisions are being made that will impact many more people than the virus itself will impact.  We have to look at the entire picture for everyone’s benefit.  If we make decisions based on the mentality to save one life, we might just as well stay in lockdown.  Now that may sound cold, but the simple fact is this is life, people die, I have sympathy for the families of those impacted, but we cannot stop living.

[OriZ 3,157]

34 minutes ago, Voice of Reason said:

Now YOU'RE twisting words.  No, covid is not like the flu disease wise.  But they both kill, and the deaths from the flu are still higher (thankfully) than from covid.  So by THAT metric, it is still less deadly than the flu.

That's just it. It's not.

[90DayFinancier 910]

35 minutes ago, Dashinka said:

 Because major economic decisions are being made that will impact many more people than the virus itself will impact.  We have to look at the entire picture for everyone’s benefit.  If we make decisions based on the mentality to save one life, we might just as well stay in lockdown.  Now that may sound cold, but the simple fact is this is life, people die, I have sympathy for the families of those impacted, but we cannot stop living.

https://twitter.com/ditzkoff/status/1249783422308028416?s=09

Edited April 25, 2020 by 90DayFinancier

[spookyturtle 9,466]

Here, I’ll help. Covid kills more people than guns, so we need more gun control laws 

[Dashinka 24,741]

49 minutes ago, 90DayFinancier said:

https://twitter.com/ditzkoff/status/1249783422308028416?s=09

Don’t do Twitter, you will have to translate.