The data is in — stop the panic and end the total isolation

[Voice of Reason 10,298]

9 hours ago, Dashinka said:

Italy is a bad comparison because their medical system was completely overrun.  I don’t think we saw any of that even in NYC.  Yes, we have discussed this many times, the biggest issue with this virus was the unknowns, healthcare professionals had to figure out how to treat this, and we did not want to see stories regarding lack of ventilators like we saw in Italy.  The feds mobilized pretty quickly with additional beds using field hospitals and hospital ships, and we now know that much of that capacity ended up not being used which of course is a good thing.  The point of the OP piece is that we know so much more now, there is so much more real data to use for decision making, but it does not look like it is being used.

SO many unused hospital beds in NY, which already had a shortage of beds due to cutbacks the past decade.  Also an excess of ventilators that were being hoarded in NY (but unused).

 

So much hype surrounding this BS.  It's been around longer than advertised, more people are immune to it than advertised, the denominator in the equation is likely MUCH larger than we know even today...  So many variables, so little actually known, except that we are still under the flu mortality numbers, thankfully.  

[OriZ 3,157]

12 hours ago, Dashinka said:

Not really the best comparison.  Italy was certainly over run and we saw all kinds of stories about the lack of ventilators there.  I don’t remember seeing the same stories even in NYC.  The story though does use the available data instead of a questionable predictive model.  It would seem real data for all these data driven governors would be preferred.

Huh? NYC was on the brink of some serious issues. Cuomo was literally begging for help. Here's a few links:

 

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/30/us/brooklyn-hospital-coronavirus-patients-deaths/index.html

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/14/nyregion/coronavirus-nyc-hospitals.html

 

https://www.foxnews.com/health/nyc-hospitals-overwhelmed-by-coronavirus-patients-resident-warns

 

https://abc7ny.com/nyc-hospital-queens-coronavirus-news/6070475/

 

https://www.cbsnews.com/video/covid-19-new-york-city-deaths-60-minutes-2020-04-19/

 

https://abc7ny.com/professor-david-penepent-hands-with-a-heart-mortuary-science/6123562/

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pg-kd945arA

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/22/nyregion/coronavirus-deaths-cremation-mortician.html

 

The only reason things did not get completely out of hand in the end, is the lockdown measures. 

 

Also, for your "uses real data" comment the way they present the data isn't even true. If you read, for example, about the cruiseship, you will see some of those that the author still considers asymptomatic when saying it was 50%, actually ended up with symptoms later on. I think only 17% ended up having no symptoms at all. That doesn't mean in other situations, like Iceland, it's not true that about half are asymptomatic when diagnosed(again though...that's only when diagnosed). It's also important to remember on the ship, there were more old people, so we can expect more symptoms. However it just goes to show the narrative of the author. I definitely wouldn't trust them more than the stories coming out of hard hit areas.

 

 

 

Edited April 24, 2020 by OriZ

[Voice of Reason 10,298]

2 minutes ago, OriZ said:

Huh? NYC was on the brink of some serious issues. Cuomo was literally begging for help. Here's a few links:

 

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/30/us/brooklyn-hospital-coronavirus-patients-deaths/index.html

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/14/nyregion/coronavirus-nyc-hospitals.html

 

https://www.foxnews.com/health/nyc-hospitals-overwhelmed-by-coronavirus-patients-resident-warns

 

https://abc7ny.com/nyc-hospital-queens-coronavirus-news/6070475/

 

https://www.cbsnews.com/video/covid-19-new-york-city-deaths-60-minutes-2020-04-19/

 

https://abc7ny.com/professor-david-penepent-hands-with-a-heart-mortuary-science/6123562/

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pg-kd945arA

 

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/22/nyregion/coronavirus-deaths-cremation-mortician.html

 

The only reason things did not get completely out of hand in the end, is the lockdown measures. 

 

Also, for your "uses real data" comment the way they present the data isn't even true. If you read, for example, about the cruiseship, you will see some of those that the author still considers asymptomatic when saying it was 50%, actually ended up with symptoms later on. I think only 17% ended up having no symptoms at all. That doesn't mean in other situations, like Iceland, it's not true that about half are asymptomatic when diagnosed(again though...that's only when diagnosed). It's also important to remember on the ship, there were more old people, so we can expect more symptoms. However it just goes to show the narrative of the author. I definitely wouldn't trust them more than the stories coming out of hard hit areas.

 

 

 

Yep.  And I also saw live video footage of empty hospitals, and those refrigerated trucks sitting unused.  Elmhurst hospital happened to be one of those.

And then there are the large discrepancy in numbers:  https://www1.nyc.gov/site/doh/covid/covid-19-data.page 

[OriZ 3,157]

1 hour ago, Voice of Reason said:

Yep.  And I also saw live video footage of empty hospitals, and those refrigerated trucks sitting unused.  Elmhurst hospital happened to be one of those.

And then there are the large discrepancy in numbers:  https://www1.nyc.gov/site/doh/covid/covid-19-data.page 

Ok, so your answer to my original question is "yes" then.

[Voice of Reason 10,298]

2 hours ago, OriZ said:

Ok, so your answer to my original question is "yes" then.

Absolutely.  Not.

 

We can each believe what we choose to believe. 

 

Any idea why the death toll in NY is so different between their health site and other sites?

[Voice of Reason 10,298]

Also, while we are on the topi of panic, isolation, and draconian rules... why is it that no one in the press conference snips I have seen are wearing masks?  Not reporters in the PC, not reporters in studios, pretty much mostly no one at all.

 

 

A quick zip thru this long video shows MANY people in close proximity, none wearing masks, not practicing "social distancing".  What do they know that they aren't telling us???

 

[Burnt Reynolds 5,058]

1 hour ago, Voice of Reason said:

Also, while we are on the topi of panic, isolation, and draconian rules... why is it that no one in the press conference snips I have seen are wearing masks?  Not reporters in the PC, not reporters in studios, pretty much mostly no one at all.

 

 

A quick zip thru this long video shows MANY people in close proximity, none wearing masks, not practicing "social distancing".  What do they know that they aren't telling us???

 

They were just super social distanced, the magical lockdown saved them all. Duh.

[Dashinka 24,741]

8 hours ago, OriZ said:

Huh? NYC was on the brink of some serious issues. Cuomo was literally begging for help. Here's a few links:

 

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/30/us/brooklyn-hospital-coronavirus-patients-deaths/index.html

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/14/nyregion/coronavirus-nyc-hospitals.html

 

https://www.foxnews.com/health/nyc-hospitals-overwhelmed-by-coronavirus-patients-resident-warns

 

https://abc7ny.com/nyc-hospital-queens-coronavirus-news/6070475/

 

https://www.cbsnews.com/video/covid-19-new-york-city-deaths-60-minutes-2020-04-19/

 

https://abc7ny.com/professor-david-penepent-hands-with-a-heart-mortuary-science/6123562/

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pg-kd945arA

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/22/nyregion/coronavirus-deaths-cremation-mortician.html

 

The only reason things did not get completely out of hand in the end, is the lockdown measures. 

 

Also, for your "uses real data" comment the way they present the data isn't even true. If you read, for example, about the cruiseship, you will see some of those that the author still considers asymptomatic when saying it was 50%, actually ended up with symptoms later on. I think only 17% ended up having no symptoms at all. That doesn't mean in other situations, like Iceland, it's not true that about half are asymptomatic when diagnosed(again though...that's only when diagnosed). It's also important to remember on the ship, there were more old people, so we can expect more symptoms. However it just goes to show the narrative of the author. I definitely wouldn't trust them more than the stories coming out of hard hit areas.

 

 

 

Yes, De Blasio and Cuomo were begging for help and asking for outrageous numbers of ventilators, and hospital beds, and they got it.  Of course most of it went unused.  I believe the hospital ship is leaving, and I expect the field hospitals will be mothballed and eventually dismantled as well.  The basis of how we measure infectious diseases is mortality rate, and the data is coming through showing the overall mortality rate of 0.1 to 0.2%.  This result is not due to social distancing since this virus was circulating months before anyone took action, it was simply unknown.  All data can be cherry picked, but as the experts told us, we needed to flatten the curve to relieve stress on the medical community, but for some reason we now have the narrative that this was done to reduce overall mortality.  I am not sure when that narrative changed.

4 hours ago, Voice of Reason said:

Also, while we are on the topi of panic, isolation, and draconian rules... why is it that no one in the press conference snips I have seen are wearing masks?  Not reporters in the PC, not reporters in studios, pretty much mostly no one at all.

 

 

A quick zip thru this long video shows MANY people in close proximity, none wearing masks, not practicing "social distancing".  What do they know that they aren't telling us???

 

Do as we say....

[Dashinka 24,741]

Wait, how long are we supposed to stay in lockdown?
 

It’s also becoming apparent that staying closed is some weird poke in the eye to President Trump. Hyper-polarization means that if the president wants to awaken the nation from its devastating economic coma, it must mean that he and his cornpone followers are wrong. Smart people — who tend to have lockdown-immune jobs in academe, government and media — must know better, and they have a license to mock and demean.
 

https://nypost.com/2020/04/26/wait-how-long-are-we-supposed-to-stay-in-lockdown/

[spookyturtle 9,466]

On 4/23/2020 at 9:36 AM, Boiler said:

Seems more people have died in care homes than hospitals. 

Here about half of the deaths have been in a long term care facility. An infected worker or visitor brought the disease in. We’ve got one Veterans facility here that has had over 70 deaths. Careless people caused this to happen. 

[90DayFinancier 910]

On 4/23/2020 at 6:41 AM, Dashinka said:

Not really the best comparison.  Italy was certainly over run and we saw all kinds of stories about the lack of ventilators there.  I don’t remember seeing the same stories even in NYC.  The story though does use the available data instead of a questionable predictive model.  It would seem real data for all these data driven governors would be preferred.

Identify any time in recent history where several major hospital systems had their icu and respiratory support systems overwhelmed, by the flu or any situation. 

[Dashinka 24,741]

13 minutes ago, 90DayFinancier said:

Identify any time in recent history where several major hospital systems had their icu and respiratory support systems overwhelmed, by the flu or any situation. 

https://www.cnbc.com/id/33125365/