Covid Vs US Average cause of death

[TBoneTX 45,298]

Regarding flu shots, I want to be a proponent, not an exponent.

[OriZ 3,157]

10 hours ago, Dashinka said:

It wasn’t clear, are they only using identified cases as the denominator?

They're only looking at mortality

 

https://www.euromomo.eu/methods/rationale.html

[Dashinka 24,505]

5 hours ago, OriZ said:

They're only looking at mortality

 

https://www.euromomo.eu/methods/rationale.html

Yes, I understand that, my question was if their mortality numbers were based only on identified cases, or were they trying to add some factor for unidentified cases?

[OriZ 3,157]

6 hours ago, Dashinka said:

Yes, I understand that, my question was if their mortality numbers were based only on identified cases, or were they trying to add some factor for unidentified cases?

No it's just based on official numbers, they're not making any of their own figures up

[Dashinka 24,505]

2 minutes ago, OriZ said:

No it's just based on official numbers, they're not making any of their own figures up

So not very accurate based on what is being found out with the antibody testing.

[OriZ 3,157]

1 hour ago, Dashinka said:

So not very accurate based on what is being found out with the antibody testing.

it's showing number of deaths, not % mortality. What does it have to do with how many people are actually sick?

[Steeleballz 7,550]

1 hour ago, Dashinka said:

So not very accurate based on what is being found out with the antibody testing.

 

    When I used to work in research, we sometimes heard an expression - statistics don't really matter that much until you become one. I think we always knew the mortality figures as a percentage were overstated. That doesn't change that the actual number of people who died from this is still significant. It could have been much higher if we didn't take some of the measures we did, and if we make the wrong decisions going forward, it still could be.

 

[Dashinka 24,505]

9 minutes ago, Steeleballz said:

 

    When I used to work in research, we sometimes heard an expression - statistics don't really matter that much until you become one. I think we always knew the mortality figures as a percentage were overstated. That doesn't change that the actual number of people who died from this is still significant. It could have been much higher if we didn't take some of the measures we did, and if we make the wrong decisions going forward, it still could be.

 

No one is saying the people that have died are or were significant.  I was simply asking the question about their methodology which was not very clear.  Btw, life is risk, I guess we should just shelter in place in perpetuity.

[Steeleballz 7,550]

5 minutes ago, Dashinka said:

No one is saying the people that have died are or were significant.  I was simply asking the question about their methodology which was not very clear.  Btw, life is risk, I guess we should just shelter in place in perpetuity.

 

  Has someone suggested we should shelter in place in perpetuity? Many states are starting to ease restrictions now. We go from mandatory stay home to voluntary stay home next week and several businesses are allowed to resume operation. Just what they said was going to happen when transmission rates started to drop.

[Dashinka 24,505]

1 minute ago, Steeleballz said:

 

  Has someone suggested we should shelter in place in perpetuity? Many states are starting to ease restrictions now. We go from mandatory stay home to voluntary stay home next week and several businesses are allowed to resume operation. Just what they said was going to happen when transmission rates started to drop.

Well, the CDC is suggesting round 2 will come at us worse, so I am assuming some governors may that that as a reason to keep everything in place.  My governor is already suggesting extending her EOs through most of May.  I will agree, the stay at home orders have had the impact that was intended, to reduce the stress on the medical system like what happened in Italy, now we are hearing in MI the orders cannot be lifted because someone may die.  Kind of a changing narrative at least in MI.  One of our big hospital systems here in MI just announced laying of 2500, and permanently eliminating 450 positions.

[Steeleballz 7,550]

3 minutes ago, Dashinka said:

Well, the CDC is suggesting round 2 will come at us worse, so I am assuming some governors may that that as a reason to keep everything in place.  My governor is already suggesting extending her EOs through most of May.  I will agree, the stay at home orders have had the impact that was intended, to reduce the stress on the medical system like what happened in Italy, now we are hearing in MI the orders cannot be lifted because someone may die.  Kind of a changing narrative at least in MI.  One of our big hospital systems here in MI just announced laying of 2500, and permanently eliminating 450 positions.

 

     It probably is a heads up that even when they ease restrictions and things return to normal, the possibility exists that they may also return to stricter measures again if the situation arises. It's not a given. They may have effective preventative or treatment measures in place by fall that negate the need to do that.

[90DayFinancier 910]

[OriZ 3,157]

9 hours ago, Steeleballz said:

 

     It probably is a heads up that even when they ease restrictions and things return to normal, the possibility exists that they may also return to stricter measures again if the situation arises. It's not a given. They may have effective preventative or treatment measures in place by fall that negate the need to do that.

I think there's a much higher likelihood of better treatment within a few months, than anything preventative. They seem to be making progress with remdesivir and others, that I guess the best we can hope for right now is that it becomes a situation where it's like ok alot of people might get sick, but we have a decent way to treat them now, so we don't have to shut everything down.