Coronavirus antibody testing finds Bay Area infections may be 85 times higher than reported: researchers

[Voice of Reason 10,298]

But you also said that warmer climes would see less infection.  Not sure which one you actually meant.

[OriZ 3,157]

I did. They did. They are. They will.

[TBoneTX 45,966]

Run Spot run.  See Spot run.

 

[Dashinka 24,744]

4 hours ago, OriZ said:

Because it's not the only factor. Saying it doesn't spread as fast in warmer places is not the same as saying it necessarily spreads the fastest in all colder places. More rural, less populated and less crowded areas aren't going to see the same spread. I posted the breakdown here before that clearly showed that the colder 29 states, which have about the same population as the warmer 21 states, had almost 80% of the infections. If you look around the world you see the same thing - actually even more pronounced, about 90%+ of cases are in the northern hemisphere.

Which is pretty much why every model, and prediction has been wrong.  One thing you left out is the amount of international travel into one place and the potential for herd immunity to develop.  The CA study clearly shows that the virus has spread to:many more people than would be identified by symptoms, and much earlier than any social distancing restrictions could have controlled.  If we believe some experts that are saying this thing started as early as November, how many folks traveled to LA, SF, and Seattle from various parts of China before mid-March when CA started putting restrictions in place and closing schools.    Much like the climate change models, the factors of this pandemic are vast, and in many cases unknown.

[Dashinka 24,744]

Los Angeles County antibody study suggests over 220,000 residents have already had coronavirus
 

A few days after preliminary results from a large-scale antibody study in Santa Clara County suggested coronavirus infections in the county are underreported by a factor as large as 50 to 85, results from a newly-released antibody study conducted in Los Angeles County contained similar findings.
 

 

The L.A. antibody study was conducted by the University of Southern California and the Los Angeles County Department of Public Health on April 10 and 11, and is part of an ongoing study where 1,000 residents will be tested each week. Unlike the Stanford study, where participants were recruited via Facebook ads, participants in the Los Angeles County were recruited by market services firm LRW Group, which used a large proprietary database to create a random sample of the county population.

Of the 1,000 individuals tested in early April, 4.1 percent were found to have COVID-19 antibodies. When adjusting for statistical margin of error, the study finds that 2.8 percent to 5.6 percent of the county's adult population has already been infected, which translates to 221,000 to 442,000 people. There were nearly 8,000 confirmed cases when the study was conducted, which leads researchers to believe the county is underreporting infections by a factor of 28 to 55.

https://www.sfgate.com/news/article/Los-Angeles-County-antibody-study-coronavirus-rate-15213966.php

 

 

[Dashinka 24,744]

Michigan doctor leading nation's largest antibody test expects first results in 'about a month'
 

https://www.foxnews.com/media/michigan-doctor-largest-antibody-test-coronavirus

[OriZ 3,157]

5 hours ago, Dashinka said:

Which is pretty much why every model, and prediction has been wrong.  One thing you left out is the amount of international travel into one place and the potential for herd immunity to develop.  The CA study clearly shows that the virus has spread to:many more people than would be identified by symptoms, and much earlier than any social distancing restrictions could have controlled.  If we believe some experts that are saying this thing started as early as November, how many folks traveled to LA, SF, and Seattle from various parts of China before mid-March when CA started putting restrictions in place and closing schools.    Much like the climate change models, the factors of this pandemic are vast, and in many cases unknown.

Yes, more toured or traveled areas of course have the potential to get  hit harder, which makes CA and FL another great example of warmer weather's mitigation potential. 

[Dashinka 24,744]

Some preliminary numbers from NY.

 

New York test of 3,000 people finds 14% with coronavirus antibodies
 

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-usa-new-york/new-york-test-of-3000-people-finds-14-with-coronavirus-antibodies-idUSKCN2252WN

[Voice of Reason 10,298]

Imagine that.  

[OriZ 3,157]

We have been, for weeks.

[Voice of Reason 10,298]

9 minutes ago, OriZ said:

We have been, for weeks.

Some for weeks longer than others.  Meh.

[Dashinka 24,744]

Interesting, it is looking like a mortality rate in the neighborhood of the seasonal flu.  Remind me again why we don’t shut down every flu season?  Note: the flu mortality rate is with therapeutics and vaccines.