Sweden: 22 Scientists Say Coronavirus Strategy Has Failed As Deaths Top 1,00

[OriZ 3,157]

3 hours ago, Dashinka said:

Ok, I am going to ignore the Slate opinion piece.  I haven’t met a leftist writer that didn’t support more government control.  As to the CNN piece, did Sweden over run its medical resources?

Well, unlike most of the world they haven't hit their peak yet, so I guess we'll see.

[Dashinka 24,741]

1 hour ago, OriZ said:

Well, unlike most of the world they haven't hit their peak yet, so I guess we'll see.

So how do the other Nordic countries reach a peak, but Sweden does not?  Weren’t the initial cases approximately at the same time?

[TBoneTX 45,962]

3 hours ago, OriZ said:

they haven't hit their peak yet

How is this proved?

 

6 hours ago, Dashinka said:

I haven’t met a leftist writer that didn’t support more government control.

Matt Taibbi seems somewhat sensible.

[Dashinka 24,741]

I wonder if all these scientists will change their minds now?

 

Trump’s latest attack on Sweden revives virus controversy
 

https://www.detroitnews.com/story/news/world/2020/05/01/trumps-latest-attack-sweden-revives-virus-controversy/111647576/

[TBoneTX 45,962]

Not sure what Pres. Trump means to accomplish with this one.

[Steeleballz 7,550]

6 hours ago, Dashinka said:

So how do the other Nordic countries reach a peak, but Sweden does not?  Weren’t the initial cases approximately at the same time?

 

   That is the point of social distancing measures. Thenumber of infections at the peak is lower, (thus you will probably reach the peak earlier),  but then the plateau after the peak is longer. The area under the curve does not change.

[Steeleballz 7,550]

5 hours ago, TBoneTX said:

How is this proved?

 

 

    If you don't want to look at numbers, just watch the little line on the worldometers site. When that line stops going up and starts to flatten out (or come back down), it has peaked. Looks like it's still going up.

 

 

[Dashinka 24,741]

11 minutes ago, Steeleballz said:

 

   That is the point of social distancing measures. Thenumber of infections at the peak is lower, (thus you will probably reach the peak earlier),  but then the plateau after the peak is longer. The area under the curve does not change.

That actually does not make sense mathematically.  By flattening the curve, the peak should move further to the right since both are still normal distributions.  I do agree that the area under the curve does not change.

[Steeleballz 7,550]

43 minutes ago, Dashinka said:

That actually does not make sense mathematically.  By flattening the curve, the peak should move further to the right since both are still normal distributions.  I do agree that the area under the curve does not change.

 

  I suppose for just a normal curve it would, it would certainly be shifted to the right. There was also an exponential growth phase, so these are not purely normal distribution curves. I'm not sure if that's the reason or something else, but the curve for Norway is basically flat, Denmark and Finland close to flattening, and Sweden is still going up.

Edited May 1, 2020 by Steeleballz

[OriZ 3,157]

8 hours ago, Dashinka said:

So how do the other Nordic countries reach a peak, but Sweden does not?  Weren’t the initial cases approximately at the same time?

You asked about medical resources, according to IHME Sweden is not at peak yet. Not my model, I don't do medical resources

[OriZ 3,157]

7 hours ago, TBoneTX said:

How is this proved?

 

Can't be proven at this point, only projected. They do appear to be getting pretty severe cases still in numbers that have not started going down yet.

 

https://covid19.healthdata.org/sweden

[Dashinka 24,741]

10 hours ago, OriZ said:

Can't be proven at this point, only projected. They do appear to be getting pretty severe cases still in numbers that have not started going down yet.

 

https://covid19.healthdata.org/sweden

Yes, the UW model keeps saying this.  I am wondering what factors they are using to model the impacts of social distancing.  Now looking at the Worldometers data it appears that Sweden is at a plateau.

[Steeleballz 7,550]

5 hours ago, Dashinka said:

Yes, the UW model keeps saying this.  I am wondering what factors they are using to model the impacts of social distancing.  Now looking at the Worldometers data it appears that Sweden is at a plateau.

 

    Some data shows they are just at the peak. It's hard to tell until you are a few days past that though. The graphic below looks like Sweden has peaked, but still not as far past it as Finland and Denmark.   

 

 

    

[Dashinka 24,741]

2 minutes ago, Steeleballz said:

 

    Some data shows they are just at the peak. It's hard to tell until you are a few days past that though. The graphic below looks like Sweden has peaked, but still not as far past it as Finland and Denmark.   

 

 

    

That is sort of what I am seeing as well.  The UW model is saying Sweden is 21 days from.its peak.

[OriZ 3,157]

Well there's a difference between peak in daily cases, and in resource use. They're correlated but I would assume the latter would be lagging.