We Need A White House Task Force On Reopening The Economy

[TBoneTX 45,571]

She's frightening.  Isn't there already a recall petition with 100,000 signatures on it, or is that someone else?

[millefleur 5,047]

Is anyone else concerned that the general anxiety in the air from the virus may deter the economy going back to "normal", even if all restrictions are lifted? 

 

Also, I would assume businesses would out of caution for lawsuits and other concerns implement virus-preventive practices on their own, which would slow down business compared to the boom times we had before. And there may continue to be a general fear/anxiety around going to doctors/hospitals for elective procedures, etc. I think there will still be a "chilling effect" on the economy driven by general anxiety. Until the virus becomes curable or we have a vaccine, I'm not sure the public at large will feel comfortable returning to normal habits.

 

Have any hard hit countries start going back to "normal" yet? (Excluding China because they're unreliable for various reasons.)

[TBoneTX 45,571]

If it were me, I'd say, "Reopen your business today and conduct it as you see fit."

The market (meaning consumer behavior) will dictate the subsequent business practices.

If one business is considered too lax, customers will avoid it in favor of others.

If one business is too stringent, customers will patronize others that hassle them less.

American businesses and the populace are smarter than the authoritarians want to credit them with being.

[TBoneTX 45,571]

In other words, "Our bodies, our choices."

[Burnt Reynolds 5,058]

7 minutes ago, millefleur said:

Is anyone else concerned that the general anxiety in the air from the virus may deter the economy going back to "normal", even if all restrictions are lifted? 

 

Also, I would assume businesses would out of caution for lawsuits and other concerns implement virus-preventive practices on their own, which would slow down business compared to the boom times we had before. And there may continue to be a general fear/anxiety around going to doctors/hospitals for elective procedures, etc. I think there will still be a "chilling effect" on the economy driven by general anxiety. Until the virus becomes curable or we have a vaccine, I'm not sure the public at large will feel comfortable returning to normal habits.

 

Have any hard hit countries start going back to "normal" yet? (Excluding China because they're unreliable for various reasons.)

No doubt, the governments (at all levels) that ordered things shut down have caused irreparable damage to business, some of course want to increase reliance upon the government in all areas of life anyways. The stock market will recover, as investors' push for returns will always result in somewhere to invest, and large corporations will be just fine to absorb the damage, along with other special benefits governments will give them. It's the small and medium businesses that will suffer most, as usual, along with the populace. For the populace, the paltry $1200 isn't sufficient for anything. It's more evidence Americans need to save, spend less, consume less, etc., and those rational things mean less reliance on debt financed consumption, which unfortunately drives the inflated economy. The government put itself in a position to have no choice but to encourage Americans keep making bad financial choices to compel the economy to move forward again.

 

It shouldn't inspire confidence, because the fundamentals are rotten, but people will forget about the long term and just be happy to get things going again. Those working for big corporations will quickly get back to business as usual, with perhaps some legalese to deal with (training, manuals, etc.), right now I guarantee insurers are busy up the wazoo crafting more risk mitigating policies for these corporations. One of the biggest areas hit I think will be in production, and because of the time it takes to get product going, it will demand likely more level aggregate strategy rather than chase, which means another change in how things are done along the supply chain to promote sustainability. The most drastic interpretation could be toward automation, but doubtful we're there yet for any major leaps, but times like this are an invitation for disruptive technologies to take over, so the potential is there.

 

I'd say initial anxiety then some semblance of normalcy, followed by a huge boom. Of course, I'm talking useful investment into the market, as in, local assets, employment, etc., not the Dow Jones. It'll skyrocket, because of the angst of people to make up for lost profit, but the fundamentals matter to me more than the stock market. I only worry about the preservation of small and medium sized business.

[millefleur 5,047]

20 minutes ago, TBoneTX said:

If it were me, I'd say, "Reopen your business today and conduct it as you see fit."

The market (meaning consumer behavior) will dictate the subsequent business practices.

If one business is considered too lax, customers will avoid it in favor of others.

If one business is too stringent, customers will patronize others that hassle them less.

American businesses and the populace are smarter than the authoritarians want to credit them with being.

This was happening before our state was on lockdown: I've heard business owners (mostly restaurants and eateries) here demanding that employees get tested and should only return to work if they get a negative result. Well, that's not really possible here because doctors here will not test an asymptomatic person unless they have direct contract with an already confirmed positive (and this is for insured people). So then the employee is left in this weird limbo situation where the owner was demanding them not to show up for work unless they can test negative, but then employees cannot get tested, so what happens...nobody shows up to work because employer won't let them, employer loses business due to lack of workers, employees do not get tested anyway because they can't because they don't qualify for a test....and things just stagnate. The employee is also not qualified for Paid Time Off by merely not going to work because they can't get tested and their employer tells them not to come in. Self-quarantining without proof/good reason and then expecting to get paid for that is not covered under labor law paid time off here here.

 

This is essentially what was happening in mass numbers to restaurant employees here before the stay-at-home orders. It seems the restaurant owners were terrified of the idea of one of their employees infecting customers or other staff, hence the demand that they test negative in order to work. I don't think restaurant owners here will feel truly comfortable until they can somehow know the risk of the virus infecting their staff/customers is trackable/unknowable and accessible. I don't have an answer but it seems like there needs to be a solution between the disconnect of the public health risk and the personal liability factor which may then fall onto scared employers who don't want to carry the risk that they "didn't do enough" to stop people getting infected if it gets traced back to their business somehow.

Edited April 12, 2020 by millefleur
Meant to say paid time off not state benefits

[TBoneTX 45,571]

One has to take risks to be successful.

If the restaurateurs are that scared, then they deserve to have no employees.

[OriZ 3,157]

6 hours ago, millefleur said:

Is anyone else concerned that the general anxiety in the air from the virus may deter the economy going back to "normal", even if all restrictions are lifted? 

 

Also, I would assume businesses would out of caution for lawsuits and other concerns implement virus-preventive practices on their own, which would slow down business compared to the boom times we had before. And there may continue to be a general fear/anxiety around going to doctors/hospitals for elective procedures, etc. I think there will still be a "chilling effect" on the economy driven by general anxiety. Until the virus becomes curable or we have a vaccine, I'm not sure the public at large will feel comfortable returning to normal habits.

 

Have any hard hit countries start going back to "normal" yet? (Excluding China because they're unreliable for various reasons.)

South Korea. Also, wouldn't call them hard hit but Hong Kong, Taiwan, Vietnam remained relatively normal all throughout. Singapore as well but they had some unique circumstances leading to a slight outburst these days making them have to crack down a little more. Sweden was also more lax initially and had to go the other way now. Austria and Germany are already seeing declines in their number of active cases and are starting to talk about returning to normal. Denmark wasn't particularly hard hit but is also eyeing reopening some stuff. Even Italy and Spain are starting to plan for that. Israel is planning for it(10.5k cases total, not particularly hard hit but still). Iran is starting to reopen some businesses next week.