We Cannot Destroy The Country For The Sake Of New York City

[Voice of Reason 10,298]

24 minutes ago, OriZ said:

I'm not saying the media is portraying this situation correctly, at all. They like to be sensationalist, for sure, and aren't known for being very accurate. When I see them talking about nothing but the number of new cases, 60k, 80k, oh look we have more than 1 million cases, and then they mention deaths(that's kinda like bringing up unemployment after the market drops 50%) to portray it as this horrific situation that's only getting worse. Surely, they're clueless. That said, it's not something we should take lightly either just because the media reports on it idiotically.

 

So, I don't watch, or pay attention to what the media is saying on this. I do pull the data itself - new cases, number of tests, etc...and have a sheet that I update and analyze daily. Unlike the media, I don't care about total cases, but rates of increase, and ratio of cases to tests, and all the other things I've been mentioning in here for the last few weeks. Based on that, and contrary to the way the media paints it, the last week has definitely been looking gradually better, and I expect that to continue. However, my issue with the comment of saying if people don't pay attention to the media they'll be fine, is one has nothing to do with the other. While the media's panic might be unwarranted, this is a real virus, and some of those people aren't fine. Over 60,000 people are already dead, and I'm sure some of them didn't pay attention to the media.

 

My comparison was to someone who never goes to the doctor. Since they never go to the doctor, they are never diagnosed with anything, so they are healthy. But not going to the doctor and not being told you have an illness doesn't mean you don't have it, just like not watching news on a virus doesn't mean the virus isn't there, even if the news tends to be a little hyperbolic about it.

I know you are a whiz with data, and you enjoy it more than most, I think.  But just like your predictions of the downturning economy here on CESHT, I think your correlations of the data you are gathering are off.  I guess only time will tell.  At least during these trying times, it gives us something to occupy our time, looking at data and coming to conclusions.  

[TBoneTX 45,571]

Five bickering posts have been removed.  Self-policing of threads is NOT permissible -- if something violates the TOS, report it and forget it.

[yuna628 9,686]

8 hours ago, Burnt Reynolds said:

Just pretend they're a fetus.

You do the pretending, whatever makes you feel better.

 

Fetuses grow up, become adult New Yorkers, and then they must all die for the Motherland anyway.

[Orangesapples 1,954]

First of all, the Federalist is pure garbage and it should not be taken seriously. 

 

Second, do people seriously believe that NYC is going to be the only one suffering? The South is going to be hit hard. 

 

And even with the best of efforts (South Korea) the mortality rate is over 1%.1% of people DEAD in a country is a big, big deal. It's a very significant number. But since the efforts in the US are not anywhere close to the best, the mortality rate is going to be higher. And having 2-3% of people die is a giant deal. If anyone seriously thinks it's OK for that many people to just perish in a horrible way, gasping for air, I don't know what to say. 

[Ban Hammer 13,421]

7 minutes ago, Orangesapples said:

First of all, the Federalist is pure garbage and it should not be taken seriously. 

 

Second, do people seriously believe that NYC is going to be the only one suffering? The South is going to be hit hard. 

 

And even with the best of efforts (South Korea) the mortality rate is over 1%.1% of people DEAD in a country is a big, big deal. It's a very significant number. But since the efforts in the US are not anywhere close to the best, the mortality rate is going to be higher. And having 2-3% of people die is a giant deal. If anyone seriously thinks it's OK for that many people to just perish in a horrible way, gasping for air, I don't know what to say. 

first line is opinion.

2nd line is conjecture.

3rd line is false.  it's not 1% of a country, it's 1% of those infected. 

[Orangesapples 1,954]

Just now, Ban Hammer said:

first line is opinion.

2nd line is conjecture.

3rd line is false.  it's not 1% of a country, it's 1% of those infected. 

Yes, and if no measures are taken, like many people are advocating for, everyone will get infected. 

[cyclone27 710]

94k is most recent worse case scenario for US. 
 

https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections

 

And if we want to be angry we should be pissed at China and WHO for downplaying Covid19.

[90DayFinancier 910]

18 minutes ago, Ban Hammer said:

first line is opinion.

And that's your opinion, which you are also entitled to.  The federalist has no redeeming qualities, and people who promote are helping promote conditions that make this country worse off, my opinion.

18 minutes ago, Ban Hammer said:

2nd line is conjecture.

Which part, the folks believing it won't hit the south, which is expressed a lot, 

Or the certainty that non urban areas are going to be hit harder, which is growing in probability. A plan needs to be put in place now to support these communities, including accepting their patient load.

18 minutes ago, Ban Hammer said:

3rd line is false.  it's not 1% of a country, it's 1% of those infected. 

This part you got right, but with no countermeasures in place you would be looking at 1 to 3 million dead in q2.

[Ban Hammer 13,421]

6 minutes ago, 90DayFinancier said:

And that's your opinion, which you are also entitled to.  The federalist has no redeeming qualities, and people who promote are helping promote conditions that make this country worse off, my opinion.

Which part, the folks believing it won't hit the south, which is expressed a lot, 

Or the certainty that non urban areas are going to be hit harder, which is growing in probability. A plan needs to be put in place now to support these communities, including accepting their patient load.

This part you got right, but with no countermeasures in place you would be looking at 1 to 3 million dead in q2.

i got all of it right.  not sure why you felt the need to argue with me about it. 

[Nature Boy 2.0 8,376]

My doctor told me I needed to stay away from the public . Pretty sure he gets his information from medical professionals and the CDC and not the media.

 

[Ban Hammer 13,421]

1 hour ago, Nature Boy 2.0 said:

My doctor told me I needed to stay away from the public . Pretty sure he gets his information from medical professionals and the CDC and not the media.

 

now i know why there was a gofundme for your doctor.........

[TBoneTX 45,571]

2 hours ago, Nature Boy 2.0 said:

My doctor told me I needed to stay away from the public .

It is good that you already hate People, Animals, and Things (as do I).

[Nature Boy 2.0 8,376]

Just now, TBoneTX said:

It is good that you already hate People, Animals, and Things (as do I).

Reported. I love animals.

 

[OriZ 3,157]

20 hours ago, Voice of Reason said:

I know you are a whiz with data, and you enjoy it more than most, I think.  But just like your predictions of the downturning economy here on CESHT, I think your correlations of the data you are gathering are off.  I guess only time will tell.  At least during these trying times, it gives us something to occupy our time, looking at data and coming to conclusions.  

Well, suffice it to say that I don't feel as though I've been off in either situation, so there's that.

 

Anyhow, some good news for today, % increase from yesterday was only 6.32%...and the weekly average is 8.7%, lowest it's been for about two months. 

 

 

Also, the increase in active cases is only 5.6%

 

 

While I believe part of it is the natural course of the virus simply running out of weak and vulnerable enough people to infect, I do think it wouldn't have happened this quickly if it wasn't for the extreme measures that were taken. 

 

11 hours ago, Orangesapples said:

First of all, the Federalist is pure garbage and it should not be taken seriously. 

 

Second, do people seriously believe that NYC is going to be the only one suffering? The South is going to be hit hard. 

 

And even with the best of efforts (South Korea) the mortality rate is over 1%.1% of people DEAD in a country is a big, big deal. It's a very significant number. But since the efforts in the US are not anywhere close to the best, the mortality rate is going to be higher. And having 2-3% of people die is a giant deal. If anyone seriously thinks it's OK for that many people to just perish in a horrible way, gasping for air, I don't know what to say. 

No one has been able to identify every single sick person. Right now and based on several metrics I've mentioned before it is believed that the real mortality rate is between 0.5% and 1%. I'm not disagreeing we need to do what we can to prevent this from spreading, but I definitely don't think the true mortality rate is as high as believed by some.

 

Also, most of the people dying from covid die from their body's immune system response, not from the virus itself. The hypercytokinemia usually leads to severe arrhythmia(likely vfib) and heart and other organ failures. I know they have had some luck with certain patients by using ecmo machines which allowed the heart and lungs to get back to more normal function while they oxygenated the blood outside the body and they didn't have to work as hard.

 

 

Edited April 6, 2020 by OriZ

[TBoneTX 45,571]

19 minutes ago, Nature Boy 2.0 said:

I love animals.

Then you know what certain Advanced Upper Primates love.