Coronavirus Live Updates: Grim Models Project High U.S. Toll in Months-Long Crisis

[90DayFinancier 910]

The White House released models showing the future course of the disease, and the C.D.C. is reviewing its guidance on wearing masks as new data suggests many people with no symptoms are infecting others.

RIGHT NOW

President Trump warned of “a very, very painful two weeks” ahead as his medical experts predicted at least 100,000 American deaths from the coronavirus.

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/31/world/coronavirus-live-news-updates.html

The reality of this disease bites

[Randyandyuni 2,682]

The at least 100,000 part is the scary part 

[yuna628 9,716]

It's 100,000 to 240,000 deaths if we are lucky. But really this is what Imperial College was saying long ago.

[Oliversmom 250]

This is really freaking me out.  Those are some scary numbers!

[Neonred 3,647]

So social distancing, shelter in place, and lock down are not working?

[OriZ 3,157]

100k-200k dead, based on the assumed actual mortality rate of closer to 0.5-1% of all cases(as opposed to known cases), essentially means they expect a total of somewhere around 10-40 million infected.

 

However, it's important to note we already have many of those infections. It takes time to die from this virus...many of the severe or critical cases are already "dead patients walking"(or laying down in hospital beds). The current tally of 3,900 dead could easily double within the next few days without a single new infection added.

Edited April 1, 2020 by OriZ

[90DayFinancier 910]

1 hour ago, Neonred said:

So social distancing, shelter in place, and lock down are not working?

"It would be so much worse without.

What would have happened if we did nothing? Because there was a group that said, ‘let’s just ride it out,’” Mr. Trump said, without saying what “group” he was referring to.

Mr. Trump said that as many as 2.2 million people “would have died if we did nothing, if we just carried on with our life.”

 

Edited April 1, 2020 by 90DayFinancier

[90DayFinancier 910]

1 hour ago, OriZ said:

100k-200k dead, based on the assumed actual mortality rate of closer to 0.5-1% of all cases(as opposed to known cases), essentially means they expect a total of somewhere around 10-40 million infected.

 

However, it's important to note we already have many of those infections. It takes time to die from this virus...many of the severe or critical cases are already "dead patients walking"(or laying down in hospital beds). The current tally of 3,900 dead could easily double within the next few days without a single new infection added.

I haven't run the numbers recently, what is the current double rate?

[OriZ 3,157]

22 minutes ago, 90DayFinancier said:

I haven't run the numbers recently, what is the current double rate?

US or global?

 

Right now globally it's around 6 days. Which isn't bad considering 3 weeks ago it was 3 days.

 

The US isn't far behind actually, right around 5 days right now.

Edited April 1, 2020 by OriZ

[90DayFinancier 910]

8 minutes ago, OriZ said:

US or global?

 

Right now globally it's around 6 days. Which isn't bad considering 3 weeks ago it was 3 days.

 

The US isn't far behind actually, right around 5 days right now.

Thanks

[yuna628 9,716]

13 hours ago, Neonred said:

So social distancing, shelter in place, and lock down are not working?

They are to a degree, but the results will be difficult to see for some time. Also what might be working for one state is not done in quite a few other states that insist on keeping things open while having a high population of infection. Our governor was pretty quick I think to shut things down, unfortunately our cases are exploding in both urban and rural areas and I can see within a few more weeks we'll be starting to look like NY.

 

Despite all of his efforts we still have a severe testing problem... and I think a critical error was made by recommending people not wear masks. Remember there are two charts... the ''good chart'' is the 100-200k the ''bad chart'' is 1.5-2million.

Edited April 1, 2020 by yuna628

[Dashinka 24,798]

26 minutes ago, yuna628 said:

They are to a degree, but the results will be difficult to see for some time. Also what might be working for one state is not done in quite a few other states that insist on keeping things open while having a high population of infection. Our governor was pretty quick I think to shut things down, unfortunately our cases are exploding in both urban and rural areas and I can see within a few more weeks we'll be starting to look like NY.

 

Despite all of his efforts we still have a severe testing problem... and I think a critical error was made by recommending people not wear masks. Remember there are two charts... the ''good chart'' is the 100-200k the ''bad chart'' is 1.5-2million.

I thought the bad chart was revised by the authors?  I know it has been discussed, but how are the likes of Korea, Japan, Sweden, etc. doing it without imploding their economies?

Edited April 1, 2020 by Dashinka

[yuna628 9,716]

1 hour ago, Dashinka said:

I thought the bad chart was revised by the authors?  I know it has been discussed, but how are the likes of Korea, Japan, Sweden, etc. doing it without imploding their economies?

Japan is still having problems and seemed to be in some denial for a long while because they really wanted the Olympics to happen. They aren't doing widespread testing like Korea. Sweden I cannot speak to. But data coming out of countries like Taiwan, Iceland and a few other places that instituted mask wearing for all + testing for all seems to have been the best and most aggressive course of action that saved lives and helped the economy. Note it's not going to entirely save an economy because a pandemic is going to have a direct effect. It also provides scientists some good data about how many are being infected and how many are asymptomatic and infected too. We were behind the ball here.. and yes China lied about their numbers, and concerning that reinfections are happening now that they are trying to open up (same thing in a few other places) but that's no excuse to be behind. The UK is scary how behind they are.

Edited April 1, 2020 by yuna628