Any Insight or Informed Speculation on How Long Travel Ban May Last?

[Ermehgerdd 172]

I know the EU travel ban was originally meant to be 30 days, but... yesterday Trump indicated the CDC recommendations could be in place until July or August.  What do you guys think? Do you think it's likely a travel ban will last until July or later? I don't think the airlines are operating under the expectation of that long of a ban. 

[Steeleballz 7,550]

29 minutes ago, Ermehgerdd said:

I know the EU travel ban was originally meant to be 30 days, but... yesterday Trump indicated the CDC recommendations could be in place until July or August.  What do you guys think? Do you think it's likely a travel ban will last until July or later? I don't think the airlines are operating under the expectation of that long of a ban. 

 

  It's impossible for anyone to say how long it will last at this time. I don't think 30 days was ever set in stone. It could have been reduced if the situation got better. It's certainly possible it could be extended if things get worse.

 

  From an epidemiological perspective, they would be looking at new cases falling below a certain number and then 2 weeks after that they would start to lift travel restrictions. I am not certain what criteria they are actually following though. It still seems to be more of a piecemeal approach.

[TBoneTX 45,324]

All else equal, one would expect national leaders (anywhere) to err on the side of caution.

[Wuozopo 4,293]

I do think it will extend and/or get stricter. 
 

UK has has barely even addressed it yet. Expect much more.

The government's chief scientific adviser Sir Patrick Vallance said it would be a "good outcome" for the UK if the number of deaths from the virus could be kept below 20,000.

 

Edited March 18, 2020 by Wuozopo

[humptydumpty12345 5]

Based on listening to podcasts: Trump was probably told by actual experts that the COVID spread will not be likely halted until July or August; that it would likely come back in waves, starting this coming winter of 2020, probably each time less damaging due to "herd immunity" and better treatments (and many already dying), with a possible vaccine in 2021 at the earliest. It will eventually morph into a typical flu virus that is tolerable. Less likely is it becomes "domesticated" or eradicated. More likely is we will have anti-viral treatments, more masks and testing, that help lower the spread, whether or not in time (before July) I can't say.

 

So Trump is mentioning those summer months that is the conservative strategy, and if it is any sooner he will look good and the market will go up.

 

Also pointed out is the shutdowns/isolations are extremely harmful economically, and I would guess that more than 3 months of it almost cripples a countries ability to operate and creates "cabin fever" among people, so that it becomes too difficult to enforce.

 

The real idiocy is this virus was predictable, (SARS, h1N1,etc), they did nothing proactive against it even as it exploded in Wuhan.

Edited March 18, 2020 by humptydumpty12345

[Crazy Cat 41,898]

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Edited March 18, 2020 by Lucky Cat

[Crazy Cat 41,898]

5 minutes ago, humptydumpty12345 said:

The real idiocy is this virus was predictable, (SARS, h1N1,etc), they did nothing proactive against it even as it exploded in Wuhan.

Hind sight is always 20-20........especially in a politically charged society.  There was no way to prevent the virus from reaching the US.

 

No one knows how long this travel restriction, etc. will last.........but economic recovery will takes years, imo.

[African Zealot 1,455]

In my opinion (which has been ridiculed), some industries would be almost totally wiped out beyond 60 days. Airlines etc operate on heavy loans which any stop of operations causes defaults.

 

More importantly what is the point of the ban after the next month or so? I mean my simple chemistry taught me that when you have two connected bowls of solution both with the same concentration of some contaminant, there is no significant migration of contaminant from one bowl to the other.

 

Very soon testing will show that USA and Europe are almost equally contaminated by their own citizens. Thus at that point what significant negative effect would incoming foreigners cause? 

 

The ban only only makes sense when one country is significantly more contaminated than the other. Right now aside from Spain and Italy I don’t think the rest of Europe is more contaminated than USA. 

 

Now if you weigh the enormous economic toll of the ban, it doesn’t make sense to maintain the ban and suffer ruin when those you’ve banned are no more contaminated than your own citizens.

 

If i were a betting man I would say this ban does not extend more than 45 days and absolute maximum 60 days unless something catastrophic or miraculous happens on either side such that the degree of contamination becomes radically different between USA and Europe.

 

A mutual ban right now between USA and China makes sense because China is on the mend and soon will have very low concentrations such that it wouldn’t make sense to let Americans come in. Hopefully as USA ups it’s game, in the next two months maximum we are all at a good place so that exchanging citizens wouldn’t change anything.

 

Duration: Maximum 60 days ✅✅✅

 

PS: South Korea has maintained open boarders throughout their crises and now rapid recovery.

Edited March 18, 2020 by Ray.Bonaquist

[Foma_ATK 13]

Bill Gates, who through his Foundation has been studying epidemics, had this to say just hours ago today during a Reddit interview: https://old.reddit.com/r/Coronavirus/comments/fksnbf/im_bill_gates_cochair_of_the_bill_melinda_gates/

 

Quote

 

Question from pizza_barista:

How long will this go on?

 

Bill Gates response:

This will vary a lot by country. China is seeing very few cases now because their testing and "shut down" was very effective. If a country does a good job with testing and "shut down" then within 6-10 weeks they should see very few cases and be able to open back up.

 

Question from EatsOctoroks:

Won't a rebound happen after the shutdown ends?

 

Bill Gates response:

It depends on how you deal with people coming in from other countries and how strong the testing effort was. So far in China the amount of rebound being seen is very low. They are controlling people coming into the country very tightly. Hong Kong, Taiwan and Singapore have all done a good job on this. If we do it right the rebounds should be fairly small in numbers.

 

 

[Ermehgerdd 172]

5 minutes ago, Foma_ATK said:

Bill Gates, who through his Foundation has been studying epidemics, had this to say just hours ago today during a Reddit interview: https://old.reddit.com/r/Coronavirus/comments/fksnbf/im_bill_gates_cochair_of_the_bill_melinda_gates/

 

Thanks for that! Do you happen to know how Singapore, Taiwan,  and Hong Kong are controlling who comes into the country?

[African Zealot 1,455]

1 hour ago, Foma_ATK said:

Bill Gates, who through his Foundation has been studying epidemics, had this to say just hours ago today during a Reddit interview: https://old.reddit.com/r/Coronavirus/comments/fksnbf/im_bill_gates_cochair_of_the_bill_melinda_gates/

 

Quote

 

Question from pizza_barista:

How long will this go on?

 

Bill Gates response:

This will vary a lot by country. China is seeing very few cases now because their testing and "shut down" was very effective. If a country does a good job with testing and "shut down" then within 6-10 weeks they should see very few cases and be able to open back up.

 

 

 

Bill Gates clearly is a good student of mine, he took notes diligently in class 😁

Edited March 18, 2020 by Ray.Bonaquist

[Mike E 11,739]

9 hours ago, Lucky Cat said:

Hind sight is always 20-20........especially in a politically charged society.  There was no way to prevent the virus from reaching the US.

 

No one knows how long this travel restriction, etc. will last.........but economic recovery will takes years, imo.

Impossible to prevent from reaching the USA. Yes.  
 

Impossible to prevent from getting  out of control: No.  It wasn’t for Vietnam. 

 

 

 

[Mike E 11,739]

7 hours ago, Ray.Bonaquist said:

In my opinion (which has been ridiculed), some industries would be almost totally wiped out beyond 60 days.

 

I agree. 
 

Quote

More importantly what is the point of the ban after the next month or so? I mean my simple chemistry taught me that when you have two connected bowls of solution both with the same concentration of some contaminant, there is no significant migration of contaminant from one bowl to the other.

So you disconnect the bowls, and filter one of the bowls.  Works for polluted lakes, rivers, etc. 
 

Quote

Now if you weigh the enormous economic toll of the ban, it doesn’t make sense to maintain the ban and suffer ruin when those you’ve banned are no more contaminated than your own citizens.

 

If i were a betting man I would say this ban does not extend more than 45 days and absolute maximum 60 days unless something catastrophic or miraculous happens on either side such that the degree of contamination becomes radically different between USA and Europe.

.

Regardless I am in violent agreement with you that the USA government will agree with you.  
 

And after that comes a massive die off.  
 

But we will be able to travel, dine out, send kids to school.  

[ADW & JOP 146]

22 hours ago, TBoneTX said:

All else equal, one would expect national leaders (anywhere) to err on the side of caution.

One would argue that if national leaders erred on the side of caution and heeded the advice of the World Health Organization, we wouldn't be in this predicament. 

[Steeleballz 7,550]

7 hours ago, Ray.Bonaquist said:

 Thus at that point what significant negative effect would incoming foreigners cause?

 

   The travel restrictions are not just about spreading the virus from one country to the next. It's about stopping the spread from infected people to non infected people. As long as transmission rates are high and/or increasing, the restrictions will be in place.  It makes no sense to close restaurants, schools, sports leagues, concert venues, political meetings and workplaces everywhere and then continue to let the virus spread to thousands of people via air travel.