How one expert sees the coronavirus pandemic playing out over the next week, next month and next year

[Orangesapples 1,954]

1 hour ago, OriZ said:

Yeah, I've seen the higher numbers...right now I'm not too sure. We are already seeing a decline in daily cases on a % basis(rate of change), however it is still around 15% for the last couple of days(we'll see today) and 17% based on a one week average. This is much better than the 24% the weekly average hit two weeks ago(it was 30% at one point going daily) but we need to see it fall under 7% in order to truly have this under control. My model was based mostly upon the projection of that which was based upon the behavior in other places such as China, S Korea, Singapore, Taiwan based on the measures they took there. The US has not taken some of these measures yet and I wouldn't at all be surprised if Europe starts to recover much sooner. In the end it will be the US blocked from entering any other country. However one thing we have going for us is while we do have many cold states, we also have many warmer states. That's why FL, I believe, despite having so many tourists and places people visit doesn't have enormous numbers yet(the testing thing or lack thereof notwithstanding). I also believe that's likely the only reason CA isn't worse off than WA.

California is not that warm right now. 

[Steeleballz 7,550]

1 hour ago, OriZ said:

Pretty sure it will be seasonal like the other 4 corona types we deal with every year, one of which is responsible for the common cold. Right now the ratio between the warmer, more humid countries in the southern hemisphere and the "colder" countries mostly in the northern hemisphere is like not even 1%...and most of the cases they do have in Africa, S. America, Australia etc are imported. So I think in the summer it will mostly go away(not completely, the flu never does either)...but I don't think we will be able to get rid of it for good

 

   I think warmer weather will slow the virus down, but with so many people not yet infected, I'm not sure it will diminish appreciably over the summer unless the distancing measures remaining in place. Hopefully all that slows down the transmission rates enough that people have access to medical care. 

 

  My guess right now would also be at some point it becomes endemic. It spreads too easily and without symptoms in many cases and also lasts for 2 weeks. The time it takes to mutate is ~2 weeks. Those things all favor it being able to circulate indefinitely. Probably less severe than it is now, but maybe more virulent than the existing strains in circulation. One of the existing strains is associated with severe cold symptoms and sometimes pneumonia. This one will probably be worse, but not as bad as it is now once we have a level of immunity to it. 

[Ban Hammer 13,340]

[Steeleballz 7,550]

1 hour ago, yuna628 said:

The models run from Imperial College (the ones we are now paying attention to) are truly frightening in scope, even those simulations run that were... ''more optimistic", they were still quite dire for both the UK and the US. It seems confident there will be a return of the disease after a lull. And in the most optimistic scenario of all, still turned problematic - they did not think immunity would be long lasting until there was a working vaccine in place... therefore the disease would return aggressively in phases. Meaning phases of shutdowns and major disruptions followed by a relax and then relapse were possible. Hopkins officials also know their stuff, and are working hard on lots of experiments to try and figure out a way to stop this.

 

  Even short term immunity should be similar to the colds we already get. It could last up to a year or so for some, but sometimes less, and a certain number of people would be able to catch it again relatively quickly. We might always have to deal with this, but once most people have been exposed, it will not be able to circulate anywhere near as easily as it does right now. There will always be a significant number of people with a level of immunity at any given time.

 

  I'm less optimistic that a vaccine would be long lasting, for the same reason. It would probably need to be seasonal like the flu, given every year, and potentially less effective as the season goes on as the virus mutates further away from the strain that was used to elicit immunity.  

[Steeleballz 7,550]

56 minutes ago, 90DayFinancier said:

Here is an interesting discussion about Covid-19, Viruses and seasons:

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/03/why-do-dozens-diseases-wax-and-wane-seasons-and-will-covid-19

 

 

  All viruses have an optimal temperature range for replication. "Cold" viruses replicate better at colder temperatures. That's actually why they are called "cold viruses". That is not to say they stop replicating and spreading at other temperatures, just that they don't do it as efficiently. There are other factors in transmission that are not temperature dependent.  It would be a good guess that Covid-19 would be somewhat similar to other Coronaviruses, but I don't think they will know for sure until we get there. 

 

  Human behavior certainly plays a role in the spread, as does the level of existing immunity. Novel viruses always have the advantage of having a completely naive population. This summer will not give the best indication of that for Covid-19. It may not spread easily at higher temperatures, but it may still continue to spread anyway.

[OriZ 3,157]

1 hour ago, Orangesapples said:

California is not that warm right now. 

Not warm enough for it to go away...no...but the trends are very clear as far as spread and correlation with temps go.

[OriZ 3,157]

11 hours ago, yuna628 said:

FL just reported a jump of 100 cases this morning to about 314 cases. Remember, some of these states have an appalling testing rate compared to other areas. The less testing, the less we know in terms of how many are infected. I'm aware in some places they've got people in the ICU that they know have it, but they have no confirming tests.

still...how long has it been? that's really not very many, and it's going to keep jumping, but only because they took forever to start testing for it. It still appears to definitely not do nearly as well in warm weather as in cold...and FL while warmer than much of the country, is not yet in their hot season...in a couple of months though...should definitely help

[OriZ 3,157]

12 hours ago, 90DayFinancier said:

Here is an interesting discussion about Covid-19, Viruses and seasons:

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/03/why-do-dozens-diseases-wax-and-wane-seasons-and-will-covid-19

 

Interesting, thanks. I also think automatically assuming every jump in confirmed cases is terrible is the wrong idea. Initially there was not enough testing, so almost 20% of all confirmed cases were considered severe or critical. I have literally been watching that figure drop daily, down to 5% now. What this tells me, is that due to all the efforts being made, they are testing and detecting people much sooner and people with little to no symptoms. This is a good thing. What we want to see is huge jump in confirmed cases detected, but we also want it to be followed by a huge decline once they are able to find and isolate most of those who can spread it around. Lets hope we're getting close to the second phase.