How one expert sees the coronavirus pandemic playing out over the next week, next month and next year

[Steeleballz 7,550]

6 minutes ago, Voice of Reason said:

Come on man, you know better.  I KNOW you do. China is nearly over it, and they started in November.  We are two months behind, and have MUCH less population density.  Logic says it won't be nearly as bad here.  No, I'm not a doctor, but I'm pretty damn smart, and have had a pretty successful life looking outside the box.  I, too, hope I am right.  If not, I will apologize in a month or two.  But for now... positive thoughts, my friend.  

 

  They are not. Most of the population has not been infected and the virus is still circulating. The numbers have dropped because China shut down everything in endemic areas and force people to stay in their houses. We are not doing any of that. Unless we do something on that level, we won't see cases drop the way they did. 

 

  All of what we are seeing now started with a few asymptomatic carriers. That's all it will ever take to get it going again anywhere in the world.

[Orangesapples 1,954]

1 hour ago, 90DayFinancier said:

Take care of yourself and your family.  Have you had a test?

Nope, was told I can't get it because I'm low risk and my symptoms are mild and they don't have enough tests. 

[Orangesapples 1,954]

1 hour ago, Steeleballz said:

 

  They are not. Most of the population has not been infected and the virus is still circulating. The numbers have dropped because China shut down everything in endemic areas and force people to stay in their houses. We are not doing any of that. Unless we do something on that level, we won't see cases drop the way they did. 

 

  All of what we are seeing now started with a few asymptomatic carriers. That's all it will ever take to get it going again anywhere in the world.

My county just banned all gatherings and non essential activities, all restaurants and bars are closed except for food delivery. It's quite likely that the first case of the virus was right here, so we desperately need strict measures. 

[Steeleballz 7,550]

1 minute ago, Orangesapples said:

Nope, was told I can't get it because I'm low risk and my symptoms are mild and they don't have enough tests. 

 

   Really the only truthful answer they are giving is that we still just don't have the ability to test everyone. They should be testing anyone with any possible symptoms, but they still can't at this time. They were doing that for about 4 days here and then they ran out of test kits. 

 

  

[Steeleballz 7,550]

Just now, Orangesapples said:

My county just banned all gatherings and non essential activities, all restaurants and bars are closed except for food delivery. It's quite likely that the first case of the virus was right here, so we desperately need strict measures. 

 

   We have done that here too. It might have worked a month ago, but it won't be enough with where we are at now. I expect we are going to see stricter measures shortly.

 

 

[Orangesapples 1,954]

1 minute ago, Steeleballz said:

 

   Really the only truthful answer they are giving is that we still just don't have the ability to test everyone. They should be testing anyone with any possible symptoms, but they still can't at this time. They were doing that for about 4 days here and then they ran out of test kits. 

 

  

I mean, I understand why the doctor would rather test the people at risk when they have to ration the tests. The problem is that they have to rationale them in the first place. 

[OriZ 3,157]

I built a model for this, and it looks kinda like this:

 

 

So it's a mix of good and bad. The good news is, within ~70 days most, if not all of it should be behind us...the bad news is, we'll probably hit close to 2 million cases first.

 

in red - projected cases

in light green - projected closed cases(recovered and dead)

in orange - projected active cases(difference between the two). This is expected to hit peak in about 40 days.

in dark green - the actual closed cases thus far(tracking pretty well)

in light blue - the actual cases so far, again tracking fairly closely

in purple - the actual active cases so far.

 

Note: this is all ex china.

[TBoneTX 45,291]

3 hours ago, Orangesapples said:

Not enjoying the house arrest but it's the least bad thing to have to go through right now.

House arrest is better than cardiac arrest or respiratory arrest, true.

[Steeleballz 7,550]

 

   

41 minutes ago, OriZ said:

I built a model for this, and it looks kinda like this:

 

 

So it's a mix of good and bad. The good news is, within ~70 days most, if not all of it should be behind us...the bad news is, we'll probably hit close to 2 million cases first.

 

in red - projected cases

in light green - projected closed cases(recovered and dead)

in orange - projected active cases(difference between the two). This is expected to hit peak in about 40 days.

in dark green - the actual closed cases thus far(tracking pretty well)

in light blue - the actual cases so far, again tracking fairly closely

in purple - the actual active cases so far.

 

Note: this is all ex china.

 

    I really hope your model is accurate. I have seen many that expect higher numbers to get infected. Still tough to model, I imagine, when they don't have a great idea of how many people might have been undetected with milder or asymptomatic cases. 

 

   

Edited March 18, 2020 by Steeleballz

[Dashinka 24,499]

5 hours ago, Steeleballz said:

 

   

 

    I really hope your model is accurate. I have seen many that expect higher numbers to get infected. Still tough to model, I imagine, when they don't have a great idea of how many people might have been undetected with milder or asymptomatic cases. 

 

   

I do as well.  As mentioned by many folks, this is a new virus where little knowledge is known, but knowledge is being gained everyday.  Who knows about China’s numbers, but if they are believable, it appears the number of new cases there have really come down.  That added to the results from Korea, Taiwan, Singapore, Japan, etc. seems to indicate a one to two month explosion in cases then a leveling off.    As mentioned many times, Korea has tested many more folks, but they have not tested everyone in the entire country, so testing more is important, but I don’t think everyone in the entire country needs a test.  Now looking at Europe, it appears that they will have a much higher peak, but they did not restrict any travel while China was exploding, and they have cultural differences that may play a factor.  I am no expert, but I think the US will fall somewhere in the middle between Korea, and Europe.  It was just four weeks ago that Korea started exploding, and they did not entirely shut down the country.  They did a lot of the same things we are doing as to working from home when possible, reducing closeness (very difficult in a country like Korea), shutting down gatherings etc.

 

In the end, this virus will play out based on its own timeframe, and any opinions as to the prognosis whether learned or not is just that, an opinion.

[yuna628 9,676]

The models run from Imperial College (the ones we are now paying attention to) are truly frightening in scope, even those simulations run that were... ''more optimistic", they were still quite dire for both the UK and the US. It seems confident there will be a return of the disease after a lull. And in the most optimistic scenario of all, still turned problematic - they did not think immunity would be long lasting until there was a working vaccine in place... therefore the disease would return aggressively in phases. Meaning phases of shutdowns and major disruptions followed by a relax and then relapse were possible. Hopkins officials also know their stuff, and are working hard on lots of experiments to try and figure out a way to stop this.

[OriZ 3,157]

14 minutes ago, yuna628 said:

The models run from Imperial College (the ones we are now paying attention to) are truly frightening in scope, even those simulations run that were... ''more optimistic", they were still quite dire for both the UK and the US. It seems confident there will be a return of the disease after a lull. And in the most optimistic scenario of all, still turned problematic - they did not think immunity would be long lasting until there was a working vaccine in place... therefore the disease would return aggressively in phases. Meaning phases of shutdowns and major disruptions followed by a relax and then relapse were possible. Hopkins officials also know their stuff, and are working hard on lots of experiments to try and figure out a way to stop this.

Pretty sure it will be seasonal like the other 4 corona types we deal with every year, one of which is responsible for the common cold. Right now the ratio between the warmer, more humid countries in the southern hemisphere and the "colder" countries mostly in the northern hemisphere is like not even 1%...and most of the cases they do have in Africa, S. America, Australia etc are imported. So I think in the summer it will mostly go away(not completely, the flu never does either)...but I don't think we will be able to get rid of it for good

[OriZ 3,157]

9 hours ago, Steeleballz said:

 

   

 

    I really hope your model is accurate. I have seen many that expect higher numbers to get infected. Still tough to model, I imagine, when they don't have a great idea of how many people might have been undetected with milder or asymptomatic cases. 

 

   

Yeah, I've seen the higher numbers...right now I'm not too sure. We are already seeing a decline in daily cases on a % basis(rate of change), however it is still around 15% for the last couple of days(we'll see today) and 17% based on a one week average. This is much better than the 24% the weekly average hit two weeks ago(it was 30% at one point going daily) but we need to see it fall under 7% in order to truly have this under control. My model was based mostly upon the projection of that which was based upon the behavior in other places such as China, S Korea, Singapore, Taiwan based on the measures they took there. The US has not taken some of these measures yet and I wouldn't at all be surprised if Europe starts to recover much sooner. In the end it will be the US blocked from entering any other country. However one thing we have going for us is while we do have many cold states, we also have many warmer states. That's why FL, I believe, despite having so many tourists and places people visit doesn't have enormous numbers yet(the testing thing or lack thereof notwithstanding). I also believe that's likely the only reason CA isn't worse off than WA.

Edited March 18, 2020 by OriZ

[yuna628 9,676]

FL just reported a jump of 100 cases this morning to about 314 cases. Remember, some of these states have an appalling testing rate compared to other areas. The less testing, the less we know in terms of how many are infected. I'm aware in some places they've got people in the ICU that they know have it, but they have no confirming tests.

[90DayFinancier 910]

21 minutes ago, OriZ said:

Yeah, I've seen the higher numbers...right now I'm not too sure. We are already seeing a decline in daily cases on a % basis(rate of change), however it is still around 15% for the last couple of days(we'll see today) and 17% based on a one week average. This is much better than the 24% the weekly average hit two weeks ago(it was 30% at one point going daily) but we need to see it fall under 7% in order to truly have this under control. My model was based mostly upon the projection of that which was based upon the behavior in other places such as China, S Korea, Singapore, Taiwan based on the measures they took there. The US has not taken some of these measures yet and I wouldn't at all be surprised if Europe starts to recover much sooner. In the end it will be the US blocked from entering any other country. However one thing we have going for us is while we do have many cold states, we also have many warmer states. That's why FL, I believe, despite having so many tourists and places people visit doesn't have enormous numbers yet(the testing thing or lack thereof notwithstanding). I also believe that's likely the only reason CA isn't worse off than WA.

Here is an interesting discussion about Covid-19, Viruses and seasons:

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/03/why-do-dozens-diseases-wax-and-wane-seasons-and-will-covid-19