All things Corona Virus

[OriZ 3,157]

3 minutes ago, Voice of Reason said:

I was actually referring to just US deaths when I asked for your best guess.

I think the 100k estimates sound spot on.

[Steeleballz 7,550]

1 hour ago, Voice of Reason said:

Things must be different because of your profession.  I know 3 people, one who who very likely.has it in NJ) has been awaiting test results for over a week now.  Two in Florida tested positive, but it took almost 2 weeks to get their results back.

 

A neighbor got tested due to work requirements, took several days to get a negative result, then took 3 days to get a letter that allowed him to return to work since he's clean.

 

Testing still seems to be all over the place.

 

   It varies by state (and probably by hospital). We do some of our own testing which maxes out at 60 tests per day with same day turn around time. Those are prioritized to admitted patients first and then to staff with symptoms that could be Covid-19. We send ER patients who are not admitted (mild symptoms) and outpatients to a reference lab and the turn around time for those results can vary from a few days to maybe 10 days at worst. 

[OriZ 3,157]

3 minutes ago, Steeleballz said:

 

   It varies by state (and probably by hospital). We do some of our own testing which maxes out at 60 tests per day with same day turn around time. Those are prioritized to admitted patients first and then to staff with symptoms that could be Covid-19. We send ER patients who are not admitted (mild symptoms) and outpatients to a reference lab and the turn around time for those results can vary from a few days to maybe 10 days at worst. 

Which in all fairness is still way too long. People have died waiting for their results to come back. This should be zippy.

[Steeleballz 7,550]

1 minute ago, OriZ said:

Which in all fairness is still way too long. People have died waiting for their results to come back. This should be zippy.

 

   It is still too long, but the reference lab is at maximum capacity and they can't catch up. They ran out of test kits early on and were backlogged with several  thousand tests and they can't catch up. I imagine other places have had similar scenarios. The methodology doesn't lend itself well to rapid testing, but hopefully the proliferation of rapid test kits will help. 

 

  We can't control what reference labs do, unfortunately. We have been adding testing internally when we need to, but they don't want to do non urgent testing internally. The tests themselves take about 4 hours start to finish in batches of 20. I don't know directly what they are doing, but I have heard they are getting more people trained to actually do the testing so they can do it 24:7.

[OriZ 3,157]

3 minutes ago, Steeleballz said:

 

   It is still too long, but the reference lab is at maximum capacity and they can't catch up. They ran out of test kits early on and were backlogged with several  thousand tests and they can't catch up. I imagine other places have had similar scenarios. The methodology doesn't lend itself well to rapid testing, but hopefully the proliferation of rapid test kits will help. 

 

  We can't control what reference labs do, unfortunately. We have been adding testing internally when we need to, but they don't want to do non urgent testing internally. The tests themselves take about 4 hours start to finish in batches of 20. I don't know directly what they are doing, but I have heard they are getting more people trained to actually do the testing so they can do it 24:7.

My understanding is there are new tests though coming up, which don't take nearly as long. I know certain places have managed to increase the number of labs they allow to work on it as well. I'm not saying it's easy, but with time there should and are going to be more and more ways to increase testing and reduce the amount of time it takes to get results

[TBoneTX 45,961]

How sensitive and accurate will these various testing methods be?

[Steeleballz 7,550]

3 minutes ago, OriZ said:

My understanding is there are new tests though coming up, which don't take nearly as long. I know certain places have managed to increase the number of labs they allow to work on it as well. I'm not saying it's easy, but with time there should and are going to be more and more ways to increase testing and reduce the amount of time it takes to get results

 

  We were supposed to get a rapid method next week that has a 15 minute turnaround per kit, but I hadn't heard any updates when I left on Friday. It usually takes them a few days to get new methods up and running. I think the next few weeks should see a very big jump in the capacity and turnaround for these. 

[Steeleballz 7,550]

2 minutes ago, TBoneTX said:

How sensitive and accurate will these various testing methods be?

 

  The rapid test will be less sensitive than the PCR method. I haven't seen the data on it yet. If it's anything like the rapid flu tests, we would be confident of positive results, but we would have to confirm negatives with a more sensitive method.

[Voice of Reason 10,298]

43 minutes ago, OriZ said:

Which in all fairness is still way too long. People have died waiting for their results to come back. This should be zippy.

We have already tested more than any other country in the world, and more than several other countries combined.  Why should it "be zippy"???  it's not like we have had years to nail down the testing process.  Zippy tests would likely just increase the false positives, which helps no one.

[Ban Hammer 13,491]

9 hours ago, Voice of Reason said:

I was actually referring to just US deaths when I asked for your best guess.

i'm going with 76k

[Ban Hammer 13,491]

[Sonotony 82]

[Orangesapples 1,954]

14 hours ago, Voice of Reason said:

I can go there because no one, in any country in the world, was prepared for this.  If you were president in 2018, you'd have done no different than Trump or Putin or any other president.  None of us would have, is my point (this is more for the TDS folks than you).

 

Doubling testing matters not.  Sick people get sicker and either recover or die.  Testing doesn't change that.  A sick friend, still at home.recovering after two weeks, knows he DOESN'T have the flu due to testing, but is still waiting for his covid result, while he gets better.  His test result is no more than a number on a chart.  He's getting over it, and that is what matters.

South Korea, Taiwan and even Vietnam somehow did it right. Experts have been warning about a pandemic for years. They're also warning us about climate change but who needs to listen to experts. 

[Burnt Reynolds 5,058]

3 minutes ago, Orangesapples said:

South Korea, Taiwan and even Vietnam somehow did it right. Experts have been warning about a pandemic for years. They're also warning us about climate change but who needs to listen to experts. 

When you think you smell blood, you really go for the jugular, don't you. 😂

[Crazy Cat 42,123]

28 minutes ago, Orangesapples said:

South Korea, Taiwan and even Vietnam somehow did it right. Experts have been warning about a pandemic for years. They're also warning us about climate change but who needs to listen to experts. 

So what did Taiwan do to "do it right"?  My wife keeps in close contact with our friends there.  The ONLY thing we can conclude is that everyone is encouraged to wear masks.........and the government issues 9 masks bi-weekly to citizens.   The government has developed an app which now allows residents to order their ration of masks online, and pick them up at 7-11, Family Mart, etc....all tracked by their national health card.  Taiwan has stepped up production of their own masks since most were, at one time, imported from China.  BTW, schools remain open there after an extended winter break.

Edited April 5, 2020 by Lucky Cat