All things Corona Virus

[Sonotony 82]

10 minutes ago, Voice of Reason said:

How could it do better, exactly?  What would you have done in 2018 if you were president or part of the CDC, not knowing a pandemic was looming?  

 

Statistics are nice, I enjoy them.  But you and I both know the data can be used to paint whatever picture we want them to.  1.5 million tests in a nation that was "woefully unprepared and not testing" is a pretty damn good number.

China just ordered 200,000 body bags.  I wonder what THOSE are for?

China claims they only had three deaths in the entire country today. I guess they have it completely under control now. 🙄

[OriZ 3,157]

31 minutes ago, Voice of Reason said:

How could it do better, exactly?  What would you have done in 2018 if you were president or part of the CDC, not knowing a pandemic was looming?  

 

Statistics are nice, I enjoy them.  But you and I both know the data can be used to paint whatever picture we want them to.  1.5 million tests in a nation that was "woefully unprepared and not testing" is a pretty damn good number.

China just ordered 200,000 body bags.  I wonder what THOSE are for?

For one, all my stats are ex. China. I've clearly mentioned that multiple times before. For two, haven't seen anyone but NTD report that.

 

How you get from me saying the US can do better as far as testing goes, to 2018...I'm not sure 🙄

 

We still need to at least double our testing, lets put it that way.

[Voice of Reason 10,298]

20 minutes ago, Sonotony said:

China claims they only had three deaths in the entire country today. I guess they have it completely under control now. 🙄

Yep.  Those 200,000 body bags must be intended for use as curtains.

[OriZ 3,157]

Anyhow, while I am upping my total expectation for confirmed cases to ~8 million, the timeline is still pretty much the same. I think active cases will hit peak at around ~2.5 million in about 3 weeks. They should be down to less than 250k within 6 weeks. We'll see.

[Voice of Reason 10,298]

6 minutes ago, OriZ said:

For one, all my stats are ex. China. I've clearly mentioned that multiple times before. For two, haven't seen anyone but NTD report that.

 

How you get from me saying the US can do better as far as testing goes, to 2018...I'm not sure 🙄

 

We still need to at least double our testing, lets put it that way.

I can go there because no one, in any country in the world, was prepared for this.  If you were president in 2018, you'd have done no different than Trump or Putin or any other president.  None of us would have, is my point (this is more for the TDS folks than you).

 

Doubling testing matters not.  Sick people get sicker and either recover or die.  Testing doesn't change that.  A sick friend, still at home.recovering after two weeks, knows he DOESN'T have the flu due to testing, but is still waiting for his covid result, while he gets better.  His test result is no more than a number on a chart.  He's getting over it, and that is what matters.

Edited April 5, 2020 by Voice of Reason

[Voice of Reason 10,298]

4 minutes ago, OriZ said:

Anyhow, while I am upping my total expectation for confirmed cases to ~8 million, the timeline is still pretty much the same. I think active cases will hit peak at around ~2.5 million in about 3 weeks. They should be down to less than 250k within 6 weeks. We'll see.

How many deaths are you predicting?

[Steeleballz 7,550]

5 minutes ago, Voice of Reason said:

I can go there because no one, in any country in the world, was prepared for this.  If you were president in 2018, you'd have done no different than Trump or Putin or any other president.  None of us would have, is my point (this is more for the TDS folks than you).

 

Doubling testing matters not.  Sick people get sicker and either recover or die.  Testing doesn't change that.  A sick friend, still at home.recovering after two weeks, knows he DOESN'T have the flu due to testing, but is still waiting for his covid result, while he gets better.  His test result is no more than a number on a chart.  He's getting over it, and that is what matters.

 

    Under current guidelines, negative people can go back to work without risking everyone they come in contact with. Positive people stay home. It would be helpful to get that negative result back in say 2 days rather than in 20 days.

[Voice of Reason 10,298]

Just now, Steeleballz said:

 

    Under current guidelines, negative people can go back to work without risking everyone they come in contact with. Positive people stay home. It would be helpful to get that negative result back in say 2 days rather than in 20 days.

Said negative person could be positive the day after they were tested.  So I stand by my original assertion.

[Steeleballz 7,550]

2 minutes ago, Voice of Reason said:

Said negative person could be positive the day after they were tested.  So I stand by my original assertion.

 

     If people still have symptoms they are retested. Believe me, we go through the drill every day at work. They test us PDQ if we have symptoms. We will get results back same day or next day. They don't want us spreading infection around the hospital obviously, but they also don't want to pay us for sitting at home. 

[Ontarkie 14,227]

~~Two post removed for going off topic.~~

[OriZ 3,157]

37 minutes ago, Voice of Reason said:

I can go there because no one, in any country in the world, was prepared for this.  If you were president in 2018, you'd have done no different than Trump or Putin or any other president.  None of us would have, is my point (this is more for the TDS folks than you).

 

Doubling testing matters not.  Sick people get sicker and either recover or die.  Testing doesn't change that.  A sick friend, still at home.recovering after two weeks, knows he DOESN'T have the flu due to testing, but is still waiting for his covid result, while he gets better.  His test result is no more than a number on a chart.  He's getting over it, and that is what matters.

Testing matters because it's the only way to detect and isolate asymptomatic carriers who infect others. The more you test, the more you know, and can impact the outcome. This is why despite the fact some countries didn't resort to a complete shutdown(Hong Kong, Taiwan, and South Korea, for example),  they have it under control much better than others who did. They handled it right, so they simply didn't need such extreme measures.

[OriZ 3,157]

43 minutes ago, Voice of Reason said:

How many deaths are you predicting?

I am expecting roughly half a million deaths worldwide.

 

We also need to remember we're only talking about round 1 here. Until there's a vaccine, we don't know when a second outburst might occur or how bad it might be. Starting to gradually lift most measures in Europe about a month from now makes sense to me, a little later than that in the US. But testing testing testing to keep it under control. Everyone should be able to order a test kit on amazon and test at home. Antibody testings should be done. Summer months will help, and giving people a break when the heat should slow spread way down would be a good idea in case some measures need to be put in place again come October.

Edited April 5, 2020 by OriZ

[Oliversmom 250]

10 hours ago, Nature Boy 2.0 said:

That is why I am telling the boss today, I will be back after its over 

Good for you.  We were given the option of whether to stay home or go to work and I chose to stay home.  

[Voice of Reason 10,298]

1 hour ago, OriZ said:

I am expecting roughly half a million deaths worldwide.

 

We also need to remember we're only talking about round 1 here. Until there's a vaccine, we don't know when a second outburst might occur or how bad it might be. Starting to gradually lift most measures in Europe about a month from now makes sense to me, a little later than that in the US. But testing testing testing to keep it under control. Everyone should be able to order a test kit on amazon and test at home. Antibody testings should be done. Summer months will help, and giving people a break when the heat should slow spread way down would be a good idea in case some measures need to be put in place again come October.

I was actually referring to just US deaths when I asked for your best guess.

[Voice of Reason 10,298]

2 hours ago, Steeleballz said:

 

     If people still have symptoms they are retested. Believe me, we go through the drill every day at work. They test us PDQ if we have symptoms. We will get results back same day or next day. They don't want us spreading infection around the hospital obviously, but they also don't want to pay us for sitting at home. 

Things must be different because of your profession.  I know 3 people, one who who very likely.has it in NJ) has been awaiting test results for over a week now.  Two in Florida tested positive, but it took almost 2 weeks to get their results back.

 

A neighbor got tested due to work requirements, took several days to get a negative result, then took 3 days to get a letter that allowed him to return to work since he's clean.

 

Testing still seems to be all over the place.