All things Corona Virus

[Boiler 45,525]

NYT are saying Greta says she has it?

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/24/climate/greta-thunberg-coronavirus-covid.html

 

 

[Sonotony 82]

3 minutes ago, laylalex said:

It was a metaphor using exaggeration for effect.  I'm okay, still working on those wedding colors.

 

What I'm talking about is that it is not out of the question that doctors and healthcare professionals are going to have to make these kind of decisions: whose life is worth more? Doctors in other countries are already talking about it. We are not so very exceptional that it's beyond the realm of possibility that these decisions will become a reality. Maybe not! I hope not. But without more ventilators, more ICU beds, more PPE, etc. we are positioning ourselves so that it becomes more likely than less. Here in CA, Elon Musk has gone from scoffing at the virus to bringing in a thousand more ventilators from China, and he's transitioning his plant to make more. Good. We need more of this.

Well, I think (and hope) that anyone of importance is taking this very seriously at this point.  From what I hear, Italy had to make such live and die decisions.

I hope people realize that the president does not want millions do die on his watch. If he creates policy that ends up killing millions of people, his re-election odds don’t look so good.

The Easter date is just a target. Think of it as a shining beacon of hope. The government sets goals and deadlines for everything. It’s just part of the planning process.  We need x hospital beds by x date. We need x respirators in NYC by x date. We will pull our troops out of Afganistán by X date.  There are reasons for these dates, goals and numbers, and they aren’t arbitrary.

Yes, I know it’s frustrating when the president doesn’t do what a doctor or economist says. The president is in a room with 50+ people every day and each one of them is an expert in their field. Many times the experts disagree with each other what to do. For better or for worse, Trump is the president and he is tasked with making the final decision. He can’t just look at things from one perspective. We didn’t elect a doctor or economist to be our president. We elected Trump. 
 

Last I checked, 60% of Americans think Trump is doing a good job handling the Corona situation (this is a trend, and not an isolated poll). The governors of New York and California also had very positive things to say about how Trump is handling things.

 

One of the really great things that came out of 9-11 was how America really came together as a country and put politics aside. I am proud how so many of our leaders on both sides are working together to find solutions.

 

Unfortunately, there are some in the media and political extremists who would rather spread fear and panic and continue to play political games. I think this is shameless.

[Voice of Reason 10,298]

5 hours ago, Steeleballz said:

 

   The circulating virus mutates into new variants every 2 weeks (approximately). There are likely several minor variants around the globe already. That could partly explain why some areas seem to be dealing with more virulent strains than others. Mutation doesn't necessarily mean we have a more deadly strain. We could also see it mutate into something more benign. It's possible the people who carried it asymptomatically to the US originally were carrying a less virulent variant to begin with.  

 

   Also the strain circulating in the original animal host may or may not be capable of jumping to humans again. It depends if the mutation that allows it to infect humans easily occurred before or after the virus infected humans in Wuhan. It's possible this could fade after a year and then show up out of nowhere 5 years down the road as well.

I have only read of two different strains, the second more benign than the original.  Do you have a reference to these other mutations we can read about?  It would be awesome if it keeps getting weaker as each mutation you refer to is happening.

[Voice of Reason 10,298]

1 hour ago, laylalex said:

It's America, so it always comes down to money. I'm in a position to throw as much money as needed at my family to protect them, and we'd probably all weather the storms all right. But it's not right that through a complete fluke I come out on top and on the "resuscitate" list again and again and again when my neighbors might not. 

 

The surreality of this moment in time is overwhelming to me. A few weeks ago I was thinking about wedding colors and now I'm thinking about whether there should be a scoring system as to who gets the thumbs up and who the thumbs down, like some twisted "Roman emperor in the Coliseum" scenario.

 

I should probably just start drinking even though it's daytime, right?

Only you could do this again. *SMH*

[laylalex 7,285]

Okay I feel bad about laughing about this but I did -- having a good sense of gallows humor is part of how I'm keeping going:

 

[Voice of Reason 10,298]

27 minutes ago, Sonotony said:

NY times did an article a while back. Your chances of dying in a car crash are 1 in 103. 1.25 Million People die in car crashes every year. 3,287 people die EVERY DAY in car crashes. Half of those are young people 15-44. An additional  20-50 million People become disabled in car crashes every year.  
IF you are under 30 and IF you are diagnosed with coronavirus, your chances of dying are less than .2%

I posted similar numbers elsewhere on CEHST, a simple search results in about 3,700 deaths EVERY DAY in the world from auto accidents.  Nothing to shut down counties/states/countries over.  Obviously, said deaths won't overwhelm hospitals, but what about all the folks in those same accidents that live?  They need medical care.  Hospitals continue to operate.  Not viral/contagious, obviously.  

 

The fear that accompanies the virus, and is compounded by the media, is the main difference that I am seeing.  And of course, the impact on the economy as people's livelihoods are being decimated.

[90DayFinancier 910]

14 minutes ago, Sonotony said:

NY times did an article a while back. Your chances of dying in a car crash are 1 in 103. 1.25 Million People die in car crashes every year. 3,287 people die EVERY DAY in car crashes. Half of those are young people 15-44. An additional  20-50 million People become disabled in car crashes every year.  
IF you are under 30 and IF you are diagnosed with coronavirus, your chances of dying are less than .2%

 

1.You are confusing lifetime odds with the odds of dying from the event in the arena today. Death from all accidents in the US per year: 170,000 (2017) 

The chances that herd immunity and vaccines will not have this disease with the same impact for 80 years so we really don't know the lifetime risk, it is the risk today that must be managed.

 

2. What are the risks that a young person would transmit the disease to a more vulnerable. I guess everyone over 50 should say goodbye to any contact outside under your plan.

 

3. We don't know the long term impacts of those that recover yet. Do you really feel that lucky?

 

 

Flawed use of statistics is contributing to the same lame behavior that has the spring break kids swapping fluids with strangers because they have a smaller chance of personally getting  visible symptoms from Coronavirus . Stupid and morally tenuous because they are impacting others.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Steeleballz 7,550]

Just now, Voice of Reason said:

I have only read of two different strains, the second more benign than the original.  Do you have a reference to these other mutations we can read about?  It would be awesome if it keeps getting weaker as each mutation you refer to is happening.

 

    It's not mutating into new strains every two weeks. It's just the rate at which RNA mutations would occur that would lead to different variations of the virus circulating. Since they are random errors in replication, a large percentage of them would be in areas of the genome that likely affect nothing. Some would be lethal to the virus itself, and on occasion they would give the virus an advantage that would make the newer "copy" better at spreading than the older one. 

 

  Sometimes the mutation may be something that makes the virus more virulent and sometimes it may be less. Most of the time there is no functional difference. 

[Voice of Reason 10,298]

1 minute ago, Steeleballz said:

 

    It's not mutating into new strains every two weeks. It's just the rate at which RNA mutations would occur that would lead to different variations of the virus circulating. Since they are random errors in replication, a large percentage of them would be in areas of the genome that likely affect nothing. Some would be lethal to the virus itself, and on occasion they would give the virus an advantage that would make the newer "copy" better at spreading than the older one. 

 

  Sometimes the mutation may be something that makes the virus more virulent and sometimes it may be less. Most of the time there is no functional difference. 

Well pooh.  I was hoping it was mutating itself out of existence.  Fingers crossed for herd immunity then.

[Nature Boy 2.0 8,370]

2 hours ago, laylalex said:

I just don't see why the White House is saying the country should be open for business by Easter. Why this arbitrary date?

Becuse sometimes part of leadership is stoping the panic and restoring hope. Stock market had biggest gain in one day since 1933

[Steeleballz 7,550]

4 minutes ago, Voice of Reason said:

I posted similar numbers elsewhere on CEHST, a simple search results in about 3,700 deaths EVERY DAY in the world from auto accidents.  Nothing to shut down counties/states/countries over.  Obviously, said deaths won't overwhelm hospitals, but what about all the folks in those same accidents that live?  They need medical care.  Hospitals continue to operate.  Not viral/contagious, obviously.  

 

The fear that accompanies the virus, and is compounded by the media, is the main difference that I am seeing.  And of course, the impact on the economy as people's livelihoods are being decimated.

 

    If the lifetime risk of dying of dying in a car accident was spread over the next 6 months, I imagine we would be shutting down some roads. If the risk of dying from Covid-19 could be spread over a lifetime, we would not need quarantines or shutdowns. Unfortunately we have what we have. It's still a false equivalency. 

[Sonotony 82]

8 minutes ago, Voice of Reason said:

I posted similar numbers elsewhere on CEHST, a simple search results in about 3,700 deaths EVERY DAY in the world from auto accidents.  Nothing to shut down counties/states/countries over.  Obviously, said deaths won't overwhelm hospitals, but what about all the folks in those same accidents that live?  They need medical care.  Hospitals continue to operate.  Not viral/contagious, obviously.  

 

The fear that accompanies the virus, and is compounded by the media, is the main difference that I am seeing.  And of course, the impact on the economy as people's livelihoods are being decimated.

Well, there are a couple differences going on. First, car accidents, etc are spread more evenly throughout the country, but just in a few hotspots. Plus, we have to deal with this pandemic IN ADDITION TO car accidents, heart attacks, etc.

 

But yes, the media is a huge part of the problem. They love panic and are trying to use this as ammo to finally take down Trump.  
 

Ukraine is much more vulnerable than the US. They lack money, resources, and hospitals, but they are not in widespread panic. Their media actually tries to inform and educate people instead of causing problems. My fiancé showed me that toilet paper is actually on sale there to get people to buy more. 

[Sonotony 82]

5 minutes ago, Nature Boy 2.0 said:

Becuse sometimes part of leadership is stoping the panic and restoring hope. Stock market had biggest gain in one day since 1933

Thank you Nature Boy. Your wisdom is always appreciated!

[Voice of Reason 10,298]

22 minutes ago, Steeleballz said:

 

    If the lifetime risk of dying of dying in a car accident was spread over the next 6 months, I imagine we would be shutting down some roads. If the risk of dying from Covid-19 could be spread over a lifetime, we would not need quarantines or shutdowns. Unfortunately we have what we have. It's still a false equivalency. 

I'm not talking risks nor ratios.  Just raw numbers.  3,700 per day vs 155 (and rising).  We won't know for sure until a year is up, but my money is on the first number remaining much larger.  Maybe I am just too optimistic for my own good.

[Voice of Reason 10,298]

35 minutes ago, Nature Boy 2.0 said:

Becuse sometimes part of leadership is stoping the panic and restoring hope. Stock market had biggest gain in one day since 1933

Trump has been more "presidential" in the past two weeks than the past two years.  You'd think people would be happy about that.

 

Here's hoping tomorrow is also a positive move for the markets.