All things Corona Virus

[Steeleballz 7,550]

1 hour ago, Boiler said:

 

Governments have a brutal message to deliver: The coronavirus lockdown cannot go on too long or the consequences of economic meltdown could be even more deadly than the disease. 

As countries across the world announce lockdowns and multibillion-euro bailouts, they know these can only offer short-term fixes. National leaders have one eye squarely on the calendar and are trying to calculate when they are going to have to tell people to get back to work, even if that will reignite infections and high death tolls.

It is French President Emmanuel Macron who has most starkly expressed the challenges of balancing measures like self-isolation and social distancing against the imperative to keep the economy running.

 

https://www.politico.eu/article/locked-down-europe-how-long-can-afford-this/

 

     We are fortunate to have 3 examples from other countries to help with the decision. We had China in total lockdown, and SK with massive epidemiological efforts to contain the virus, and we had widespread infections and delayed measures from Italy. China and SK both saw transmission rates level off in ~30 days, and Italy is ~day 26.

 

  Whether cases in Italy start to level off in the next few days or if they continue to increase will tell us a lot about how the different interventions affect the outcome.  

[Dashinka 24,494]

37 minutes ago, Steeleballz said:

 

     We are fortunate to have 3 examples from other countries to help with the decision. We had China in total lockdown, and SK with massive epidemiological efforts to contain the virus, and we had widespread infections and delayed measures from Italy. China and SK both saw transmission rates level off in ~30 days, and Italy is ~day 26.

 

  Whether cases in Italy start to level off in the next few days or if they continue to increase will tell us a lot about how the different interventions affect the outcome.  

China was not in total lockdown.  Hubei province and Wuhan were as much as the government could impose it, but not the entire country.  Italy may have reached a peak already, but still too soon to tell so far.

 

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy/

Edited March 24, 2020 by Dashinka

[Boiler 45,501]

I have seen no evidence to support that this will be a one time hot, more likely to mutate and go around once or twice more at least.

[Steeleballz 7,550]

10 minutes ago, Dashinka said:

China was not in total lockdown.  Hubei province and Wuhan were as much as the government could impose it, but not the entire country.  Italy may have reached a peak already, but still too soon to tell so far.

 

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy/

 

  China's approach is to lock down. They did that in endemic areas where transmission was widespread. SK and Italy did the same with their approaches, testing and contact tracing in SK, and progressive limited restriction in Italy. What I am saying is we will see from Italy in a week or so how the 3 approaches vary after ~30 days. That was when China and SK leveled off.

 

    The so called data set will not be complete for a long time, but how long it takes for Italy to level off will give us a better idea of how the 3 different approaches to intervention worked. If there is a lot of asymptomatic transmission (or natural immunity) then cases may level off after 30 days no matter what we do. If not, we may be looking at sustained transmission in some places, and sporadic recurrences in others. 

[Voice of Reason 10,298]

26 minutes ago, Dashinka said:

China was not in total lockdown.  Hubei province and Wuhan were as much as the government could impose it, but not the entire country.  Italy may have reached a peak already, but still too soon to tell so far.

 

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy/

This is very true.  And in reality, we don't yet know for sure WHAT all went on in China.  I have friends who report their families were locked in their homes, and I have read where people were actually forced to go back to work and produce, in spite of the illness and fear.  The majority of the country wasn't in lockdown, same as here in the US.  As more videos are leaked from Chinese "traitors" and reporters, it will paint a more accurate picture of what actually happened there.

[Dashinka 24,494]

1 hour ago, Voice of Reason said:

This is very true.  And in reality, we don't yet know for sure WHAT all went on in China.  I have friends who report their families were locked in their homes, and I have read where people were actually forced to go back to work and produce, in spite of the illness and fear.  The majority of the country wasn't in lockdown, same as here in the US.  As more videos are leaked from Chinese "traitors" and reporters, it will paint a more accurate picture of what actually happened there.

Many Chinese people, other than those in Wuhan/Hubei, were traveling all over the world particularly to Europe.  Early on, there was a story of some auto engineers in Germany becoming infected by a co-worker that came from Shanghai.  This co-worker was not living in Wuhan, but her parents were and they came to visit her just before her trip to Germany.

[Ban Hammer 13,337]

[Steeleballz 7,550]

2 hours ago, Boiler said:

I have seen no evidence to support that this will be a one time hot, more likely to mutate and go around once or twice more at least.

 

   The circulating virus mutates into new variants every 2 weeks (approximately). There are likely several minor variants around the globe already. That could partly explain why some areas seem to be dealing with more virulent strains than others. Mutation doesn't necessarily mean we have a more deadly strain. We could also see it mutate into something more benign. It's possible the people who carried it asymptomatically to the US originally were carrying a less virulent variant to begin with.  

 

   Also the strain circulating in the original animal host may or may not be capable of jumping to humans again. It depends if the mutation that allows it to infect humans easily occurred before or after the virus infected humans in Wuhan. It's possible this could fade after a year and then show up out of nowhere 5 years down the road as well.

[90DayFinancier 910]

3 hours ago, Boiler said:

I have seen no evidence to support that this will be a one time hot, more likely to mutate and go around once or twice more at least.

Didn't you point out that the "original" H1N1 epidemic had significant waves until 1920 a few days ago? Is it likely we will have a similar pattern until a vaccine is available?

[Sonotony 82]

Sooo... I usually donate blood through the Red Cross several times a year.  Lately, I have heard so much on TV about the blood shortage and also received several emails begging me to donate blood.  I live just outside Chicago and went to the website and saw they don’t have a donation time for me until May 5.  The problem seems to be more with the Red Cross than potential donors. I am begging for them to take my blood, but they don’t want it until May.

[laylalex 7,284]

I just don't see why the White House is saying the country should be open for business by Easter. Why this arbitrary date?

[Lemonslice 4,841]

1 minute ago, laylalex said:

I just don't see why the White House is saying the country should be open for business by Easter. Why this arbitrary date?

Haven't you heard about the Easter bunny?

[Boiler 45,501]

1 minute ago, laylalex said:

I just don't see why the White House is saying the country should be open for business by Easter. Why this arbitrary date?

I do not agree with there being a date or necessarily a one size fits all response, US is a big country, but at some point reality will kick in.

 

https://www.politico.eu/article/locked-down-europe-how-long-can-afford-this/

 

 

Governments have a brutal message to deliver: The coronavirus lockdown cannot go on too long or the consequences of economic meltdown could be even more deadly than the disease. 

As countries across the world announce lockdowns and multibillion-euro bailouts, they know these can only offer short-term fixes. National leaders have one eye squarely on the calendar and are trying to calculate when they are going to have to tell people to get back to work, even if that will reignite infections and high death tolls.

It is French President Emmanuel Macron who has most starkly expressed the challenges of balancing measures like self-isolation and social distancing against the imperative to keep the economy running.

"It is impossible to live — even in self-isolation — and to cure people, if we do not continue the economic activity that, quite simply, permits us to live in this country,” he said while chairing an "economy task force" dealing with the outbreak.

Macron is also the most prominent voice to warn people that a vaccine is not imminent, and probably won't arrive until the end of 2021. The message is clear: It won't be possible for people to stay at home until then.

[laylalex 7,284]

5 minutes ago, Boiler said:

I do not agree with there being a date or necessarily a one size fits all response, US is a big country, but at some point reality will kick in.

 

https://www.politico.eu/article/locked-down-europe-how-long-can-afford-this/

 

 

Governments have a brutal message to deliver: The coronavirus lockdown cannot go on too long or the consequences of economic meltdown could be even more deadly than the disease. 

As countries across the world announce lockdowns and multibillion-euro bailouts, they know these can only offer short-term fixes. National leaders have one eye squarely on the calendar and are trying to calculate when they are going to have to tell people to get back to work, even if that will reignite infections and high death tolls.

It is French President Emmanuel Macron who has most starkly expressed the challenges of balancing measures like self-isolation and social distancing against the imperative to keep the economy running.

"It is impossible to live — even in self-isolation — and to cure people, if we do not continue the economic activity that, quite simply, permits us to live in this country,” he said while chairing an "economy task force" dealing with the outbreak.

Macron is also the most prominent voice to warn people that a vaccine is not imminent, and probably won't arrive until the end of 2021. The message is clear: It won't be possible for people to stay at home until then.

I agree that there needs to be nuance, and I agree that there needs to be balance between wrapping everyone in bubble wrap/cotton wool and the economy and society withering away completely. Macron's voice is, on this matter, one I am willing to listen to. 

 

So we end up where we didn't want to be when we were all talking about Obamacare and its supposed death panels -- who gets to live and who should essentially sacrifice themselves in order for the entire world to keep from imploding? It's not nice and it is worrisome. I expect I would fall into the category of "save" -- young and upper middle class and educated (or educated enough). My dad and mom are 65, so in a higher risk group, but they're both professionals, so do they make the cut? How about my grandma in her late 80s -- she's still sharp and goes (or went until recently) to the gym and had an active social life -- but she's not an active component in the economy any longer, and she was "only" a secretary, "only" graduated high school. Maybe she doesn't get the ventilator. 

 

None of it is nice, no, not at all. 

13 minutes ago, Lemonslice said:

Haven't you heard about the Easter bunny?

I need a fluffy bunny right now, and that one is pretty cute. ❤️ 

[Sonotony 82]

8 minutes ago, laylalex said:

I agree that there needs to be nuance, and I agree that there needs to be balance between wrapping everyone in bubble wrap/cotton wool and the economy and society withering away completely. Macron's voice is, on this matter, one I am willing to listen to. 

 

So we end up where we didn't want to be when we were all talking about Obamacare and its supposed death panels -- who gets to live and who should essentially sacrifice themselves in order for the entire world to keep from imploding? It's not nice and it is worrisome. I expect I would fall into the category of "save" -- young and upper middle class and educated (or educated enough). My dad and mom are 65, so in a higher risk group, but they're both professionals, so do they make the cut? How about my grandma in her late 80s -- she's still sharp and goes (or went until recently) to the gym and had an active social life -- but she's not an active component in the economy any longer, and she was "only" a secretary, "only" graduated high school. Maybe she doesn't get the ventilator. 

 

None of it is nice, no, not at all. 

I need a fluffy bunny right now, and that one is pretty cute. ❤️ 

How is this a death panel? This is a free country and your parents and grandparents are free to isolate as long as they want to. Nobody is stopping them. My mother is in her 70’s and has reclused herself for years. Nobody makes her come out.

 

If your family is afraid of contamination, they can keep their doors shut as long as they want to.