All things Corona Virus

[Lemonslice 4,960]

2 hours ago, Neonred said:

Just thinking out loud here.  If the lock downs and all other efforts keep the number of deaths here in the US to reasonable levels, maybe just tens of thousands, should we institute a similar effort with lock down every year during flu season?

 

"

Between 2007 and 2017 (the last year on which we have the data), the flu was the initial cause of death for a total of 5,060 deaths, an average of 460 per year."

Source: https://www.agi.it/fact-checking/news/2020-02-26/coronavirus-influenza-stagionale-7231278/ 

 

Yesterday, the Covid19 virus killed 627 persons in Italy.

 

I really hope some treatments become available soon, or that the virulence goes down rapidly - otherwise, things are going to get interesting here also.

 

 

[Voice of Reason 10,298]

29 minutes ago, Lemonslice said:

 

"

Between 2007 and 2017 (the last year on which we have the data), the flu was the initial cause of death for a total of 5,060 deaths, an average of 460 per year."

Source: https://www.agi.it/fact-checking/news/2020-02-26/coronavirus-influenza-stagionale-7231278/ 

 

Yesterday, the Covid19 virus killed 627 persons in Italy.

 

I really hope some treatments become available soon, or that the virulence goes down rapidly - otherwise, things are going to get interesting here also.

 

 

 

 

Quote

Highlights

•

In the winter seasons from 2013/14 to 2016/17, an estimated average of 5,290,000 ILI cases occurred in Italy, corresponding to an incidence of 9%.

•

More than 68,000 deaths attributable to flu epidemics were estimated in the study period.

•

Italy showed a higher influenza attributable excess mortality compared to other European countries. especially in the elderly.

 

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1201971219303285

 

I think you are a factor or so off m8.  68,000 flu deaths in Italy in three years.  That's 22,667 flu deaths per year.

Edited March 21, 2020 by Voice of Reason

[Neonred 3,632]

1 hour ago, Lemonslice said:

 

"

Between 2007 and 2017 (the last year on which we have the data), the flu was the initial cause of death for a total of 5,060 deaths, an average of 460 per year."

Source: https://www.agi.it/fact-checking/news/2020-02-26/coronavirus-influenza-stagionale-7231278/ 

 

Yesterday, the Covid19 virus killed 627 persons in Italy.

 

I really hope some treatments become available soon, or that the virulence goes down rapidly - otherwise, things are going to get interesting here also.

 

 

 

 

I have some real problems with your numbers.  This from the CDC:

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.html

 

Table 1: Estimated Influenza Disease Burden, by Season — United States, 2010-11 through 2018-19 Influenza Seasons

  Symptomatic Illnesses Medical Visits Hospitalizations Deaths Season Estimate 95% U I Estimate 95% U I Estimate 95% U I Estimate 95% U I 2010-2011 21,000,000 (20,000,000 – 25,000,000) 10,000,000 (9,300,000 – 12,000,000) 290,000 (270,000 – 350,000) 37,000 (32,000 – 51,000) 2011-2012 9,300,000 (8,700,000 – 12,000,000) 4,300,000 (4,000,000 – 5,600,000) 140,000 (130,000 – 190,000) 12,000 (11,000 – 23,000) 2012-2013 34,000,000 (32,000,000 – 38,000,000) 16,000,000 (15,000,000 – 18,000,000) 570,000 (530,000 – 680,000) 43,000 (37,000 – 57,000) 2013-2014 30,000,000 (28,000,000 – 33,000,000) 13,000,000 (12,000,000 – 15,000,000) 350,000 (320,000 – 390,000) 38,000 (33,000 – 50,000) 2014-2015 30,000,000 (29,000,000 – 33,000,000) 14,000,000 (13,000,000 – 16,000,000) 590,000 (540,000 – 680,000) 51,000 (44,000 – 64,000) 2015-2016 24,000,000 (20,000,000 – 33,000,000) 11,000,000 (9,000,000 – 15,000,000) 280,000 (220,000 – 480,000) 23,000 (17,000 – 35,000) 2016-2017 29,000,000 (25,000,000 – 45,000,000) 14,000,000 (11,000,000 – 23,000,000) 500,000 (380,000 – 860,000) 38,000 (29,000 – 61,000) Preliminary estimates* Estimate 95% UI Estimate 95% UI Estimate 95% UI Estimate 95% UI 2017-2018* 45,000,000 (39,000,000 – 58,000,000) 21,000,000 (18,000,000 – 27,000,000) 810,000 (620,000 – 1,400,000) 61,000 (46,000 – 95,000) 2018-2019* 35,520,883 (31,323,881 – 44,995,691) 16,520,350 (14,322,767 – 21,203,231) 490,561 (387,283 – 766,472) 34,157 (26,339 – 52,664)

 

For some reason I can't copy the chart, but take a look at it on the link.

 

Looks like the annual average of deaths by flu in the US is mid 30,000's

Edited March 21, 2020 by Neonred

[Steeleballz 7,550]

4 hours ago, Neonred said:

Just thinking out loud here.  If the lock downs and all other efforts keep the number of deaths here in the US to reasonable levels, maybe just tens of thousands, should we institute a similar effort with lock down every year during flu season?

 

  If the death rate in a given flu season looked like it could approach anything like Covid-19, measures would likely be considered. Since most people have been exposed to flu repeatedly, there is not the same risk to the health care structure with a severe flu season as there is associated with a novel virus being introduced to a population. Seasonal flu would be unlikely to elicit this type of response even if the vaccine failed to match the strains completely. The strain of flu would have to be capable of causing a pandemic for restrictions to happen IMO. For a bad seasonal flu they would recommend people in affected groups stay home as much as possible. They wouldn't shut everything down. 

 

  The difference ATM is people are not being asked/required to stay home for their own safety. They are being asked to stay home for everyone's safety.  

Edited March 21, 2020 by Steeleballz

[Voice of Reason 10,298]

31 minutes ago, Steeleballz said:

 

  If the death rate in a given flu season looked like it could approach anything like Covid-19, measures would likely be considered. Since most people have been exposed to flu repeatedly, there is not the same risk to the health care structure with a severe flu season as there is associated with a novel virus being introduced to a population. Seasonal flu would be unlikely to elicit this type of response even if the vaccine failed to match the strains completely. The strain of flu would have to be capable of causing a pandemic for restrictions to happen IMO. For a bad seasonal flu they would recommend people in affected groups stay home as much as possible. They wouldn't shut everything down. 

 

  The difference ATM is people are not being asked/required to stay home for their own safety. They are being asked to stay home for everyone's safety.  

Could you explain your thoughts here, please?  I feel like I am missing some important piece of information.

Edited March 21, 2020 by Voice of Reason

[90DayFinancier 910]

[Steeleballz 7,550]

36 minutes ago, Voice of Reason said:

Could you explain your thoughts here, please?  I feel like I am missing some important piece of information.

 

  I'd invite you to the hospital I work at to have a look, but we are on lock down and no longer allowing visitor access for any reason. If you think hospitals ever fill up like this for any reason, you are kidding yourself. Not even the worst flu season has this happening. This is already after all elective procedures, all routine visits, all outpatient visits and almost anything that can wait has already been cancelled.

 

  We are also getting our first reports of staff testing positive and being quarantined. So we are full to capacity right now, and we also have to start closing down medical wards. So where do the next patients go? 

 

  

[Steeleballz 7,550]

 

     Is the coronavirus like the flu? Not at all, according to doctors treating COVID-19 patients

 

     https://kdvr.com/news/nationalworld-news/is-the-coronavirus-like-the-flu-not-at-all-according-to-doctors-treating-covid-19-patients/

[Voice of Reason 10,298]

1 hour ago, Steeleballz said:

 

     Is the coronavirus like the flu? Not at all, according to doctors treating COVID-19 patients

 

     https://kdvr.com/news/nationalworld-news/is-the-coronavirus-like-the-flu-not-at-all-according-to-doctors-treating-covid-19-patients/

 

Quote

For most people, the coronavirus causes only mild or moderate symptoms, such as fever and cough. For some, especially older adults and people with existing health problems, it can cause more severe illness, including pneumonia.

The vast majority of people recover from the new virus.

Stay safe, my friend.  I still owe you a beer...

[Steeleballz 7,550]

13 minutes ago, Voice of Reason said:

 

Stay safe, my friend.  I still owe you a beer...

 

   The quote below is what jumped out at me. The 80% with mild symptoms are great, but the other 20% is what worries me. Again, I just hope that there are many more asymptomatic people that would make that 20% group much lower in absolute numbers than we expect. I just saw today that several NBA players who tested positive are completely asymptomatic. 

 

Quote

The therapist said he’s been running ventilators for the sickest COVID-19 patients. According to him, many of his patients are relatively young, in their 40s and 50s, and have minimal, if any, preexisting conditions in their charts.

“It first struck me how different it was when I saw my first coronavirus patient go bad. I was like, holy s—, this is not the flu. Watching this relatively young guy, gasping for air, pink frothy secretions coming out of his tube and out of his mouth.”

 

[Voice of Reason 10,298]

2 hours ago, Steeleballz said:

 

   The quote below is what jumped out at me. The 80% with mild symptoms are great, but the other 20% is what worries me. Again, I just hope that there are many more asymptomatic people that would make that 20% group much lower in absolute numbers than we expect. I just saw today that several NBA players who tested positive are completely asymptomatic. 

 

 

I know, me too.  Having watched one person slowly suffer and die from severe pneumonia, I can imagine this is pretty terrible for those who are the worst affected by it.  And even if a bad patient recovers, how much lung damage will there be?  Truly sucks.

[Sonotony 82]

1 hour ago, Voice of Reason said:

I know, me too.  Having watched one person slowly suffer and die from severe pneumonia, I can imagine this is pretty terrible for those who are the worst affected by it.  And even if a bad patient recovers, how much lung damage will there be?  Truly sucks.

I have congestive heart failure and almost died from fluid in my lungs a few years back. Severe pneumonia is one of the most terrible things you can get. 
 

Imagine the feeling of drowning while you are just sitting in your bed. You gasp harder and harder, but the feeling of suffocation gets worse and worse. Sometimes I have nightmares about when I saw the world go dark, alarms ringing and medical staff rushing into my room while charging up the paddles.

Corona must be a terrible way to die.

[Voice of Reason 10,298]

8 minutes ago, Sonotony said:

I have congestive heart failure and almost died from fluid in my lungs a few years back. Severe pneumonia is one of the most terrible things you can get. 
 

Imagine the feeling of drowning while you are just sitting in your bed. You gasp harder and harder, but the feeling of suffocation gets worse and worse. Sometimes I have nightmares about when I saw the world go dark, alarms ringing and medical staff rushing into my room while charging up the paddles.

Corona must be a terrible way to die.

I haven't experienced such, but my wife nearly drowned once in the ocean, as in sinking beneath the waves, near total exhaustion kind of thing, and she lives with that fear to this day.  It hits at really unexpected times, as I'm sure you know.  Sorry to hear about your plight.

[Sonotony 82]

11 hours ago, Voice of Reason said:

I haven't experienced such, but my wife nearly drowned once in the ocean, as in sinking beneath the waves, near total exhaustion kind of thing, and she lives with that fear to this day.  It hits at really unexpected times, as I'm sure you know.  Sorry to hear about your plight.

In college, I foolishly tried to body surf the Banzai Pipeline in Hawaii. The undertow swept me under and held me down. I almost died. 

Drowning in your own lung fluid is a completely different experience. It’s not a quick trauma over a few minutes. You are agonizingly gasping for air for days. Each breath is painful and you feel like your lungs are being crushed.

 

When I was drowning at the bottom of the ocean, I prayed God would save my life.

 

When I was drowning for days in a hospital bed, I was praying that God would end my life.

[Nature Boy 2.0 8,378]

3 hours ago, Sonotony said:

In college, I foolishly tried to body surf the Banzai Pipeline in Hawaii. The undertow swept me under and held me down. I almost died. 

Drowning in your own lung fluid is a completely different experience. It’s not a quick trauma over a few minutes. You are agonizingly gasping for air for days. Each breath is painful and you feel like your lungs are being crushed.

 

When I was drowning at the bottom of the ocean, I prayed God would save my life.

 

When I was drowning for days in a hospital bed, I was praying that God would end my life.

cant imagine how awful.