All things Corona Virus

[Nature Boy 2.0 8,370]

5 minutes ago, yuna628 said:

I'm confused about his timeline, but this guy......  It sounds like he knew about his positive status in the morning, but still attended the hearing without wearing a mask and was in contact with the AG (also not wearing mask).

I wonder if it was like this when my parents generation was fighting the polio epidemic, all the butt hurt and denial. 

[Voice of Reason 10,298]

186 dead in FL in three days.  62 per day average.  Call it 2.5 days. and the number bounces up to 74 dead per day.

[Dashinka 24,498]

1 hour ago, Rosalind F said:

At that movie party folks were wearing masks! 

Definitely not over their mouths.

[Dashinka 24,498]

57 minutes ago, Lil bear said:

Many people right now are convinced they hold (self endowed) superpowers .. reality doesn’t impact them 😤

How is that any different then the folks that think Covid19 has a 100% fatality rate?

2 minutes ago, Voice of Reason said:

186 dead in FL in three days.  62 per day average.  Call it 2.5 days. and the number bounces up to 74 dead per day.

How many folks die in FL daily as it is?

[Dashinka 24,498]

56 minutes ago, Nature Boy 2.0 said:

I wonder if it was like this when my parents generation was fighting the polio epidemic, all the butt hurt and denial. 

You know it wasn’t just as the HK Flu pandemic in 1968 was not like today.  When hyperpartisan politics gets involved all bets are off.

[Voice of Reason 10,298]

2 minutes ago, Dashinka said:

 

How many folks die in FL daily as it is?

Stand by...

Edited July 29, 2020 by Voice of Reason

[Voice of Reason 10,298]

206,975 in 2019.  567 per day averaged over 365 days.

 

 

Leading Causes of Death - State Total, Florida 2019

Causes of Death	Deaths	Percent of Total Deaths	Crude Rate Per 100,000	Age-Adjusted Death Rate Per 100,000	YPLL < 75 Per 100,000 Under 75
ALL CAUSES	206,975	100.00	973.2	665.6	7,646.8
HEART DISEASE	47,044	22.73	221.2	143.5	1,056.1
CANCER	45,562	22.01	214.2	142.8	1,505.8
STROKE	13,868	6.70	65.2	41.4	201.1
UNINTENTIONAL INJURY	13,213	6.38	62.1	55.5	1,530.9
CHRONIC LOWER RESPIRATORY DISEASE	12,005	5.80	56.4	36.1	221.5
ALZHEIMER'S DISEASE	6,531	3.16	30.7	18.8	15.5
DIABETES	6,158	2.98	29.0	19.7	226.8
SUICIDE	3,427	1.66	16.1	14.5	426.1
NEPHRITIS, NEPHROTIC SYNDROME & NEPHROSIS	3,242	1.57	15.2	10.1	83.8
CHRONIC LIVER DISEASE AND CIRRHOSIS	3,186	1.54	15.0	11.3	223.8
HYPERTENSION	2,737	1.32	12.9	8.4	64.4
INFLUENZA AND PNEUMONIA	2,703	1.31	12.7	8.4	73.4
PARKINSON'S DISEASE	2,666	1.29	12.5	7.9	14.4
SEPTICEMIA	2,527	1.22	11.9	8.0	82.1
HOMICIDE	1,331	0.64	6.3	6.7	270.0
BENIGN NEOPLASM	1,185	0.57	5.6	3.7	27.5
PNEUMONITIS	1,156	0.56	5.4	3.5	20.4
PERINATAL PERIOD CONDITIONS	714	0.34	3.4	4.6	274.8
HIV/AIDS	692	0.33	3.3	2.8	73.

 

 

http://www.flhealthcharts.com/ChartsReports/rdPage.aspx?rdReport=ChartsProfiles.LeadingCausesOfDeathProfile

Edited July 29, 2020 by Voice of Reason

[Dashinka 24,498]

14 minutes ago, Voice of Reason said:

206,975 in 2019.  567 per day averaged over 365 days.

 

 

Leading Causes of Death - State Total, Florida 2019

Causes of Death	Deaths	Percent of Total Deaths	Crude Rate Per 100,000	Age-Adjusted Death Rate Per 100,000	YPLL < 75 Per 100,000 Under 75
ALL CAUSES	206,975	100.00	973.2	665.6	7,646.8
HEART DISEASE	47,044	22.73	221.2	143.5	1,056.1
CANCER	45,562	22.01	214.2	142.8	1,505.8
STROKE	13,868	6.70	65.2	41.4	201.1
UNINTENTIONAL INJURY	13,213	6.38	62.1	55.5	1,530.9
CHRONIC LOWER RESPIRATORY DISEASE	12,005	5.80	56.4	36.1	221.5
ALZHEIMER'S DISEASE	6,531	3.16	30.7	18.8	15.5
DIABETES	6,158	2.98	29.0	19.7	226.8
SUICIDE	3,427	1.66	16.1	14.5	426.1
NEPHRITIS, NEPHROTIC SYNDROME & NEPHROSIS	3,242	1.57	15.2	10.1	83.8
CHRONIC LIVER DISEASE AND CIRRHOSIS	3,186	1.54	15.0	11.3	223.8
HYPERTENSION	2,737	1.32	12.9	8.4	64.4
INFLUENZA AND PNEUMONIA	2,703	1.31	12.7	8.4	73.4
PARKINSON'S DISEASE	2,666	1.29	12.5	7.9	14.4
SEPTICEMIA	2,527	1.22	11.9	8.0	82.1
HOMICIDE	1,331	0.64	6.3	6.7	270.0
BENIGN NEOPLASM	1,185	0.57	5.6	3.7	27.5
PNEUMONITIS	1,156	0.56	5.4	3.5	20.4
PERINATAL PERIOD CONDITIONS	714	0.34	3.4	4.6	274.8
HIV/AIDS	692	0.33	3.3	2.8	73.

 

 

http://www.flhealthcharts.com/ChartsReports/rdPage.aspx?rdReport=ChartsProfiles.LeadingCausesOfDeathProfile

So about 575 deaths per day from my calculation.

[Voice of Reason 10,298]

3 minutes ago, Dashinka said:

So about 575 deaths per day from my calculation.

I came up with 567, but don't wanna web-wrestle you over 8 peeps. 

[Nature Boy 2.0 8,370]

The deaths very well could have been spread out over several days , that number is new deaths reported to the Dept of health in the last 24 hours. Does not mean they happned in the last 24 hours.

 

 Thats why averages are so important in basic statistics  The important thing is the 7 day trend line.. If this is all the cases for the last 3 days then we should have had zero yesterday, but 186 new deaths were reported.

 

 

[Dashinka 24,498]

16 minutes ago, Voice of Reason said:

I came up with 567, but don't wanna web-wrestle you over 8 peeps. 

Looking at the last three years it appears to be an average of 204k deaths per year for FL.  Seeing that the total adds up to 100% they must only be counting the primary COD and not double counting based on secondary or tertiary causes.

[Dashinka 24,498]

3 minutes ago, Nature Boy 2.0 said:

The deaths very well could have been spread out over several days , that number is new deaths reported to the Dept of health in the last 24 hours. Does not mean they happned in the last 24 hours.

 

 Thats why averages are so important in basic statistics  The important thing is the 7 day trend line.. If this is all the cases for the last 3 days then we should have had zero yesterday, but 186 new deaths were reported.

 

 

But deaths are a trailing indicator, so one has to look at all the data and see how all are trending.

[Nature Boy 2.0 8,370]

5 minutes ago, Dashinka said:

But deaths are a trailing indicator, so one has to look at all the data and see how all are trending.

you got it. If we are seeing a down turn in cases and death% hopefully deaths will go down.

 

Its already killed 3x more people in 7 months than the flu did in all of 2019 in Fla and about the same number of people that died from diabetes in all of 2019

Edited July 29, 2020 by Nature Boy 2.0

[OriZ 3,157]

19 hours ago, laylalex said:

Ew. Even in non-pandemic times, I feel like a person going to that party might have picked up a disease or two just by attending.  

 

The idea of attending a house party in New Jersey with 700 people makes me anxious. Might be time to start drinking -- alcohol is a disinfectant.

Yup. Totally.

[Burnt Reynolds 5,058]

4 hours ago, Nature Boy 2.0 said:

you got it. If we are seeing a down turn in cases and death% hopefully deaths will go down.

 

Its already killed 3x more people in 7 months than the flu did in all of 2019 in Fla and about the same number of people that died from diabetes in all of 2019

Death % would go down as cases increases, the only reason in the coming months that cases really fall off is if either 1) the entire population is tested, or 2) if they simply are shutting things down and people in the general populace aren't getting tested (limiting testing to more serious and likely confirmed cases). If it's the latter, they're simply delaying it more, not stopping anything. Once testing resumes, positive cases increase again, and the death rate plummets. 

 

The reason why the % was so high before is that 1) little was known about the virus, and 2) overwhelmingly the people tested were exhibiting serious symptoms. Combined with #1, there was a much higher risk. That risk has now lowered substantially, both because of treatment, but also knowing the segments of population most at risk, thus being able to take measures to isolate them. 

 

Of the most vulnerable, there are general practices that should've occurred regardless of the kung flu. Of all the useless and dangerous responses done to this, I do feel like one of the good things that can occur is awareness and mitigation strategies aimed at isolating the vulnerable, without trainwrecking the populace at large. 

Edited July 29, 2020 by Burnt Reynolds