Estimated case completion date disappeared (merged)

[MandG 15]

Back here too.  My wife's N400 interview was originally scheduled for March 24th, but got de-scheduled.   New estimated completion time is September 2020.

[VinnyH 61]

14 minutes ago, millefleur said:

I'm taking the estimates with a grain of salt. We have no idea what they were even basing them on. The local office estimates are more vague, usually giving a much more broad timespan: https://egov.uscis.gov/processing-times/. It's nice that they decided to put it there, but I'm not really expecting it to be accurate.

I agree with you that we should generally be cautious. If you read the explanation as to what those two numbers represent (for example, the time processing range for Newark, NJ USCIS Local Office: [10 months To 14.5 months]), the lower bound represents the time elapses after which at least 50% of the cases have been processed (i.e. the median), while the upper bound represents the time after which another 43% of the case load has been processed, for a total of 93%.
 

Those figures are updated every month. Although we don't the exact statistical distribution of the processing times, it means that you still have half of the cases processed in less than 10 months, and also 7% of the cases that take longer than 14.5 months.

 

Each case is obviously different (thus leading to the various processing times), but since it is also clearly indicated that we should sign in to have a more personalized estimate, I would tend to think that it might be, to some degree, reliable. Once again, it is indicative, and nowhere the USCIS is committing to any timeframe.

 

In my situation, I am applying after a 5-year LPR status, and data seems to suggest that those cases are somehow slightly faster to process than the N-400 marriage based under the 3-year rule (because of additional verifications).

 

Therefore, the 8.0 months estimated completion time (from filing) does not sound unreasonable all things considered. At least I can hope so!

[millefleur 5,047]

4 minutes ago, VinnyH said:

Those figures are updated every month. Although we don't the exact statistical distribution of the processing times, it means that you still have half of the cases processed in less than 10 months, and also 7% of the cases that take longer than 14.5 months.

Had no idea they were based on something that specific! Thanks for enlightening me.  

 

I would hope the 5-year rule applications do get processed faster. It seems only fair since they've been waiting longer than the 3-year marriage folks.

[Spam Hill 10]

9 hours ago, millefleur said:

 It seems only fair since they've been waiting longer than the 3-year marriage folks.

 I prefer the USCIS line "We generally process cases in the order we receive them" not whether you applied under the 5 year rule or the 3 year rule. And both are adjudicated fairly under the merits on which they were submitted. Just saying

Edited April 21, 2020 by Spam Hill

[VinnyH 61]

1 hour ago, Spam Hill said:

 I prefer the USCIS line "We generally process cases in the order we receive them" not whether you applied under the 5 year rule or the 3 year rule. And both are adjudicated fairly under the merits on which they were submitted. Just saying

The two assertions are not necessarily mutually exclusive, except for the term "fair". Like I wrote earlier, with a very neutral tone, data seems to suggest that 5-year LPR cases are processed slightly faster than 3-year LPR marriage-based cases. And the reason might be purely practical.

 

Cases are indeed processed in the order they are received, but a 3-year LPR case might require more examination (and sometimes RFE etc...). If this should happen, I presume the Case Officer will not just sit there idle, and will move, in the meantime, to the next. If that one is a 5-year LPR case that is very "vanilla" (no criminal records etc...), that case will probably move faster.

 

In the end, and overall, this might explain why the 5-year LPR cases move faster to completion, regardless of it being fair or not.

[Spam Hill 10]

45 minutes ago, VinnyH said:

The two assertions are not necessarily mutually exclusive, except for the term "fair". Like I wrote earlier, with a very neutral tone, data seems to suggest that 5-year LPR cases are processed slightly faster than 3-year LPR marriage-based cases. And the reason might be purely practical.

 

Cases are indeed processed in the order they are received, but a 3-year LPR case might require more examination (and sometimes RFE etc...). If this should happen, I presume the Case Officer will not just sit there idle, and will move, in the meantime, to the next. If that one is a 5-year LPR case that is very "vanilla" (no criminal records etc...), that case will probably move faster.

 

In the end, and overall, this might explain why the 5-year LPR cases move faster to completion, regardless of it being fair or not.

Hi Vinny, I didn’t quote you. I quoted a piece from someone else. Why would it be fair that someone applying under the 5 year rule should be adjudicated faster simply because they have waited longer to apply. However if applying under the 5 year is easier to adjudicate than a 3 year then fine, that logic makes sense.  

Edited April 21, 2020 by Spam Hill

[Ontarkie 14,669]

~~One post removed as requested.~~

[VinnyH 61]

4 minutes ago, Spam Hill said:

Hi Vinny, I didn’t quote you. I quoted a piece from someone else. Why would it be fair that someone applying under the 5 year rule should be adjudicated faster simply because they have waited longer to apply. However if applying under the 5 year is easier to adjudicate than a 3 year then fine, that logic makes sense.  

 

Hi Spam Hill,
 

"Fair" enough, if I may say... 😎

 

I was just trying to chime in with some objective analysis and cold rationale before things get too heated and "passionate", and people start arguing over subjective feelings.

[chel0524 82]

Where are you all finding this case status estimated completion date? My husband's page on uscis doesn't have all that info. 

[Spam Hill 10]

50 minutes ago, chel0524 said:

Where are you all finding this case status estimated completion date? My husband's page on uscis doesn't have all that info. 

You will find it right here....

[millefleur 5,047]

1 hour ago, chel0524 said:

Where are you all finding this case status estimated completion date? My husband's page on uscis doesn't have all that info. 

You have to make an account with https://my.uscis.gov.

[millefleur 5,047]

7 hours ago, Spam Hill said:

Hi Vinny, I didn’t quote you. I quoted a piece from someone else. Why would it be fair that someone applying under the 5 year rule should be adjudicated faster simply because they have waited longer to apply. However if applying under the 5 year is easier to adjudicate than a 3 year then fine, that logic makes sense.  

Regardless of the 3 or 5 year rule, the single biggest factor affecting processing times is just the local office. Some local offices are much speedier than others. It's sort of just random luck if your local office is a slow or a fast one. 

[chel0524 82]

17 hours ago, millefleur said:

You have to make an account with https://my.uscis.gov.

We have one but it doesn't show it

[VinnyH 61]

10 minutes ago, chel0524 said:

We have one but it doesn't show it

Are you sure that your account is indeed on the

https://myaccount.uscis.gov

 

and not the Case Status Online, which is a different website

https://egov.uscis.gov ???

[chel0524 82]

5 hours ago, VinnyH said:

Are you sure that your account is indeed on the

https://myaccount.uscis.gov

 

and not the Case Status Online, which is a different website

https://egov.uscis.gov ???

Ooohhhh.... I'll check...