Potential impact of COVID-19 (coronavirus) epidemic on the citizenship process (and timelines)

[SunflowerSweet 1,321]

5 hours ago, Lucky Cat said:

Here is an interesting Johns Hopkins article which compares Influenza and Covid-19.

https://www.hopkinsmedicine.org/health/conditions-and-diseases/coronavirus/coronavirus-disease-2019-vs-the-flu

What does any of this have to do with whether USCIS offices close or not? How is it relevant? 

[Crazy Cat 41,822]

25 minutes ago, MorganandMichael said:

What does any of this have to do with whether USCIS offices close or not? How is it relevant? 

It's probably not directly relevant......

[N400NYC 380]

 

 

U.S. Health Experts Say Stricter Measures Are Required to Limit Coronavirus’s Spread

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/08/health/coronavirus-spread-united-states.html
 

 

Quote

As the coronavirus gained a foothold in the United States, thousands of employees from Seattle to Silicon Valley were told to work from home. Public school districts in several states have shut down, universities are moving classes to online only, and even churches are limiting services or prayer meetings. As the coronavirus spread to two-thirds of the states, Americans began to grasp the magnitude of the threat facing them.

 

[Dashinka 24,487]

16 hours ago, N400NYC said:

 

Personally I have no anxiety about either one (flu or coronavirus) but I do have anxiety about my citizenship process being disrupted...and that's really my point here. The response to COVID-19 has been such that the prospect of widespread societal disruption (to daily life) is high.

That is really the big effect being played out by this new virus, the disruption and the unknown.  I was supposed to fly to Russia this week via Incheon, well that was scrapped when Russia stopped all flights from Korea a few weeks ago.  In my case, my wife and I decided to cancel my trip altogether, but now I see that Russia is requiring folks coming from several countries that have hot spots to self quarantine for 14 days.  I was supposed to be there for only 7 days.  The overall mortality rate is unknown right now as there are many suspected mild cases that aren't being confirmed, so the denominator may be much larger than what we are seeing.

 

16 hours ago, N400NYC said:

 

It's true that regular flu impacts many people. The huge difference is that there is no vaccine for COVID-19 and because of that the societal response is very different. As such the potential for widespread infection (to rates higher than that for regular flu) is high. Also, the death rate for COVID-19 is much higher than it is for flu. Has a USCIS office ever closed because of a flu outbreak? I doubt it. But the office in SEATTLE closed because one employee tested positive for COVID-19 so that just shows the response to this is going to be very different. An excerpt from the Guardian: 

 

CORONAVIRUS: FACTS CHECKED

 

Claim: "It is no more dangerous than winter flu"

 

"Many individuals who get coronavirus will experience nothing worse than seasonal flu symptoms, but the overall profile of the disease, including its mortality rate, looks more serious. At the start of an outbreak the apparent mortality rate can be an overestimate if a lot of mild cases are being missed. But this week, a WHO expert suggested that this has not been the case with Covid-19. Bruce Aylward, who led an international mission to China to learn about the virus and the country’s response, said the evidence did not suggest that we were only seeing the tip of the iceberg. If borne out by further testing, this could mean that current estimates of a roughly 1% fatality rate are accurate. This would make Covid-19 about 10 times more deadly than seasonal flu, which is estimated to kill between 290,000 and 650,000 people a year globally."

The flu shot many folks get annually often times misses the mark as to the most prevalent strains.  If COVID-19 becomes an annual thing, I expect a vaccine will be developed. 

[Dashinka 24,487]

11 hours ago, MorganandMichael said:

What does any of this have to do with whether USCIS offices close or not? How is it relevant? 

The only indirect factor is the knowledge folks gain from this and the reduction of the anxiety of the general population.

[Dashinka 24,487]

19 hours ago, databit said:

People: It's not just  the number of people who die from annual flu, because it spreads all over, so of course many more people die, and Covid-19 hasn't spread all over yet---but what's important is that Covid-19 not only kills at a higher rate, but even those who survive are coming out of it with permanent lung damage. Read foreign newspapers!

 

World Health Organization Director General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said at a news briefing March 3 that the global case fatality rate for the coronavirus is believed to be about 3.4 percent, higher than the 2.3 percent reported in a China CDC study released in February. 

“By comparison, seasonal flu generally kills far fewer than 1 percent of those infected,” Tedros said of the global flu caseload during the news briefing. Anthony S. Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, has said that the mortality rate for seasonal flu is 0.1 percent.

Interesting, does the WHO know the total number of folks that have Covid-19?  I still don't believe the denominator is well known, and I don't think those that have no symptoms or a mild reaction are coming away with permanent effects.  The mortality rate varies greatly regionally.  I think Korea it is something like 0.7 % and Italy around 5% for roughly the same number of confirmed infections.  Japan seems around 1% as well.  Still much more to learn, but most of the folks I am hearing from the CDC, etc., also seem to believe the denominator is much higher.  Time will tell.

[Dashinka 24,487]

15 hours ago, N400NYC said:

These stats  below are from late February (cohort from China) but I imagine they still hold true. By the way, the overall death rate for the flu is 0.1%.

 

People might think that, for example, a 3.6% death rate for the 60-69 group isn't much. But once you have hundreds of thousands of people getting infected even small death rates become significant. 

 

https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-death-age-older-people-higher-risk-2020-2

 

 

I wonder what the rate is by age and pre-existing serious health condition.

[N400NYC 380]

1 hour ago, Dashinka said:

I wonder what the rate is by age and pre-existing serious health condition.

That I'm not sure of!

 

But those with the following conditions are at most risk:

 

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/specific-groups/high-risk-complications.html

People who have serious chronic medical conditions like:

• Heart disease
• Diabetes
• Lung disease

[SunflowerSweet 1,321]

5 hours ago, Dashinka said:

The only indirect factor is the knowledge folks gain from this and the reduction of the anxiety of the general population.

Well unless the plan is sending an email to the service center and convincing them that it’s not an issue, I’m not sure how this helps OP with their question.

[Dashinka 24,487]

2 hours ago, MorganandMichael said:

Well unless the plan is sending an email to the service center and convincing them that it’s not an issue, I’m not sure how this helps OP with their question.

The point is at this time it will be a disruption, be it an N400, I485 or for anyone going through certain consulates.  Considering how new this is and that the CDC/WHO is just gaining knowledge, it will be a pain, and the only thing folks can do is be patient, and to get educated.

[MadMax101 32]

Have any oath ceremonies been canceled? 

[N400NYC 380]

37 minutes ago, MadMax101 said:

Have any oath ceremonies been canceled? 

Not that I am aware of.

 

I think the ones most at risk of being cancelled are those were >500 people participate 

[MadMax101 32]

22 minutes ago, N400NYC said:

Not that I am aware of.

 

I think the ones most at risk of being cancelled are those were >500 people participate 

Like the ones in San Antonio : /

[N400NYC 380]

21 minutes ago, MadMax101 said:

Like the ones in San Antonio : /

We will know more in the weeks to come as things play out. Rather than cancel them they could easily put precautionary measures in place:

- advise anyone ill to not attend 

- screen for recent travels or exposure

- hand sanitizer upon entrance 

- reducing length of ceremony 
- not allowing guests 

 

They have to find ways to keep things moving as there are already too many backlogs.

25 minutes ago, MadMax101 said:

Like the ones in San Antonio : /

How often are those mass oath ceremonies held?

[SilverLake 40]

I really appreciate this thread as I am in the same situation. My oath ceremony is March 18 and I think there could be a lot of unpredictable developments regarding the Covid-19 outbreak in the next 10 days. Who knows what will happen!

@N400NYC  when is your oath? Are you aware of any cancelled oath ceremony so far?

 

Thanks!