CoVID-19 ~ Man Made in Wuhan, China

[Voice of Reason 10,298]

29 minutes ago, Steeleballz said:

 

 

   As I posted a few times, mortality rate data is notoriously unreliable and volatile in the early part of an emerging pathogen. The US was showing a 7% mortality rate last I checked. Mostly that is because of the exposure of a large number of elderly people initially and also because a high number of asymptomatic carriers have been missed/not tested.

 

  South Korea was showing a ~ 0.7% mortality rate, and Iran's has dropped from 11% initially down to less than 2% since they increased testing. The best guess is that <1% is probably more accurate. That number also doesn't reflect how extremely skewed the mortality rate seems to be by increasing age. For people less than 40 with no health conditions, the death rate data is showing <0.2% right now, whereas it is almost 15% for people over 80.

I get all of that.  And the more cases we know of, the lower the mortality rate will drop.  But I think the higher Wuhan rate may be due to variant #1, which seems to have been worse (for humans) than variant #2.  Or maybe Wuhan had a large number of old people, IDK.

[Voice of Reason 10,298]

57 minutes ago, Voice of Reason said:

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

 

17 US deaths thus far from covid-19.  15 seem to be from WA, which I think was ground zero here in the US.and 2 in FL.  Not sure where the 17th victim is from.

 

NY appears to be blooming, and the first case in DC.  The cruise ship in CA is supposed to dock tomorrow, that will be interesting.  

As a point of time reference, there were 109,571 cases when I originally posted the link above.

[Steeleballz 7,550]

4 minutes ago, Voice of Reason said:

I get all of that.  And the more cases we know of, the lower the mortality rate will drop.  But I think the higher Wuhan rate may be due to variant #1, which seems to have been worse (for humans) than variant #2.  Or maybe Wuhan had a large number of old people, IDK.

 

   The more aggressive "strain" seemed to coincide with the Wuhan outbreak. I think I posted earlier, but the high smoking rate in China probably contributed to more people having a preexisting medical condition. I would add to that a government locking people in their homes and welding doors shut is unlikely to motivate people with minor symptoms to come forward. There are certainly factors that could have contributed to the data from Wuhan being worse than other area. Just the fact that Wuhan was the first large focal outbreak also likely made things worse.

[midwinterrose 277]

On 3/7/2020 at 3:05 PM, Voice of Reason said:

At least Inovio is on the ball with a vaccine.

 

http://ir.inovio.com/news-and-media/news/press-release-details/2020/Inovio-Accelerates-Timeline-for-COVID-19-DNA-Vaccine-INO-4800/default.aspx

 

https://www.buzzfeed.com/amphtml/shaunlintern/these-nhs-staff-were-told-the-swine-flu-vaccine-was-safe

[midwinterrose 277]

I wouldn’t put it past any government to be experimenting with bio weapons and leak one either purposefully or accidentally.  However, if it were something intended as a weapon, I would expect the mortality rate to be higher than 2-4%.  I know some people claim that many more people have died than the Chinese government has admitted—I also wouldn’t put it past any government to lie about mortality rates, at the very least to prevent panic.  At the same time, the virus has now spread to many more countries and is maintaining a similar mortality rate, if not less, around the globe, which leads me to believe that the reports from China are not extremely inaccurate.

 

At this point I tend to believe it is a naturally occurring new strain of virus, but I won’t take the bioweapon possibility completely off the table. 

[Ban Hammer 13,491]

[Voice of Reason 10,298]

1 hour ago, Voice of Reason said:

As a point of time reference, there were 109,571 cases when I originally posted the link above.

109,711 cases

3,802 deaths

60,694 recovered

[Burnt Reynolds 5,058]

19 minutes ago, radharose said:

I wouldn’t put it past any government to be experimenting with bio weapons and leak one either purposefully or accidentally.  However, if it were something intended as a weapon, I would expect the mortality rate to be higher than 2-4%.  I know some people claim that many more people have died than the Chinese government has admitted—I also wouldn’t put it past any government to lie about mortality rates, at the very least to prevent panic.  At the same time, the virus has now spread to many more countries and is maintaining a similar mortality rate, if not less, around the globe, which leads me to believe that the reports from China are not extremely inaccurate.

 

At this point I tend to believe it is a naturally occurring new strain of virus, but I won’t take the bioweapon possibility completely off the table. 

There's also a very distinct possibility that there are people who've had this for longer than we're told. 

 

Combine this with awareness and increased testing/precautionary measures (which means increased diagnoses of living patients), and we're bound to see mortality rates drop, as is usually the case.

Edited March 8, 2020 by Burnt Reynolds

[Voice of Reason 10,298]

At least one older gent has survived:

 

https://nypost.com/2020/03/08/100-year-old-chinese-man-recovers-from-coronavirus-the-oldest-patient-to-beat-illness/

 

Quote

The man suffered from underlying health issues such as Alzheimer’s disease, hypertension and heart failure, the outlet said.

 

Edited March 8, 2020 by Voice of Reason

[Dashinka 24,743]

3 hours ago, Steeleballz said:

 

 

   As I posted a few times, mortality rate data is notoriously unreliable and volatile in the early part of an emerging pathogen. The US was showing a 7% mortality rate last I checked. Mostly that is because of the exposure of a large number of elderly people initially and also because a high number of asymptomatic carriers have been missed/not tested.

 

  South Korea was showing a ~ 0.7% mortality rate, and Iran's has dropped from 11% initially down to less than 2% since they increased testing. The best guess is that <1% is probably more accurate. That number also doesn't reflect how extremely skewed the mortality rate seems to be by increasing age. For people less than 40 with no health conditions, the death rate data is showing <0.2% right now, whereas it is almost 15% for people over 80.

It is interesting to see the diff end mortality rates regionally.  Both Japan and Italy have been hot spots with older populations, but right now, Japan is around 1% and Italy around 5%.  I think a lot has to do with the overall health of the various regions, and I agree, as this plays out, I think the mortality rate will fall down to the <1% range globally.

[Steeleballz 7,550]

1 hour ago, Bill & Katya said:

It is interesting to see the diff end mortality rates regionally.  Both Japan and Italy have been hot spots with older populations, but right now, Japan is around 1% and Italy around 5%.  I think a lot has to do with the overall health of the various regions, and I agree, as this plays out, I think the mortality rate will fall down to the <1% range globally.

 

   I hope people realize soon that this is not something that requires deathmatches over toilet paper. 

[Voice of Reason 10,298]

Mosquito repellent?

[Voice of Reason 10,298]

19 hours ago, Voice of Reason said:

109,711 cases

3,802 deaths

60,694 recovered

111,362 cases

3,892 deaths

62,392 recovered

[Voice of Reason 10,298]

On 3/9/2020 at 12:32 PM, Voice of Reason said:

111,362 cases

3,892 deaths

62,392 recovered

I forgot to update last night.

 

But as of this morning:

121,564 cases

4,373 deaths

66,239 recoveries

 

 

[Steeleballz 7,550]

17 minutes ago, Voice of Reason said:

I forgot to update last night.

 

But as of this morning:

121,564 cases

4,373 deaths

66,239 recoveries

 

 

 

  Statistically looking like the 3% mortality rate figure is holding up. I still think that number is leaving out people with milder symptoms, but hard to guess how many that would be.