Coronavirus’s spread in U.S. is ‘inevitable,’ CDC warns

[Steeleballz 7,550]

4 hours ago, Dashinka said:

Maybe, but in such a small contained large population like Korea where folks literally travel around the entire country daily, I think it is more than just identification and isolation.

 

   Countries like Korea and Germany that are doing lots of testing have been able to minimize spread and focus resources on containment in the hardest hit areas. The whole approach is trying to contain the virus in limited areas before it spreads everywhere. 

 

  We were short of kits from the get go, so they came up with criteria to limit testing, and we missed an early opportunity to recognize that the virus was already here, and perhaps slow it down.

[90DayFinancier 910]

52 minutes ago, Voice of Reason said:

Don't just take my word for it.

 

Finally, some accurate reporting!

https://www.nbcnews.com/video/coronavirus-patient-from-diamond-princess-explains-what-the-illness-feels-like-80075845933?fbclid=IwAR336RSVHvVG5KYn-BvFOwK5UtW5QR6e-hHpYoW9aD-rAZTRjNsJ_bPxdDI

Confirmation bias par excellence

[Steeleballz 7,550]

59 minutes ago, Voice of Reason said:

Don't just take my word for it.

 

Finally, some accurate reporting!

https://www.nbcnews.com/video/coronavirus-patient-from-diamond-princess-explains-what-the-illness-feels-like-80075845933?fbclid=IwAR336RSVHvVG5KYn-BvFOwK5UtW5QR6e-hHpYoW9aD-rAZTRjNsJ_bPxdDI

 

  There's a 32 year old guy in NY who may not make it, and there was an 80 year old guy a couple of days ago who had minor symptoms. The first guy to come back from Wuhan had a 103 degree fever and no other symptoms. Other people end up septic with lung failure and kidney failure. 

 

   It's probably not a good idea to generalize based on any one persons experience. This will be minor for some, perhaps many, but if it spreads as widely as the flu, it's going to have a significantly more negative outcomes.

[90DayFinancier 910]

3 minutes ago, Steeleballz said:

 

  There's a 32 year old guy in NY who may not make it, and there was an 80 year old guy a couple of days ago who had minor symptoms. The first guy to come back from Wuhan had a 103 degree fever and no other symptoms. Other people end up septic with lung failure and kidney failure. 

 

   It's probably not a good idea to generalize based on any one persons experience. This will be minor for some, perhaps many, but if it spreads as widely as the flu, it's going to have a significantly more negative outcomes.

.....but other than that it was a nice cruise.

[Dashinka 24,696]

1 hour ago, Steeleballz said:

 

   Countries like Korea and Germany that are doing lots of testing have been able to minimize spread and focus resources on containment in the hardest hit areas. The whole approach is trying to contain the virus in limited areas before it spreads everywhere. 

 

  We were short of kits from the get go, so they came up with criteria to limit testing, and we missed an early opportunity to recognize that the virus was already here, and perhaps slow it down.

Based on what I saw reported about Korea, they did not react until the numbers started spiking in Deagu.  Travel to China was not shut off until after that, and then they started widespread testing particularly of those part of the religious sect that seemed to be the center of the outbreak.  Korea is certainly ahead of the US since the community spread cases started spiking there around three weeks ago, and their testing has ramped up pretty fast, but so far they have only tested a little more than 200,000 people.

 

http://www.koreaherald.com/view.php?ud=20200310000789

[Voice of Reason 10,298]

2 hours ago, 90DayFinancier said:

Confirmation bias par excellence

How, pray tell, is that guys experience with CV confirmation bias?

[Steeleballz 7,550]

1 hour ago, Dashinka said:

Based on what I saw reported about Korea, they did not react until the numbers started spiking in Deagu.  Travel to China was not shut off until after that, and then they started widespread testing particularly of those part of the religious sect that seemed to be the center of the outbreak.  Korea is certainly ahead of the US since the community spread cases started spiking there around three weeks ago, and their testing has ramped up pretty fast, but so far they have only tested a little more than 200,000 people.

 

http://www.koreaherald.com/view.php?ud=20200310000789

 

   They can't even tell us how many people have been tested here, but estimates were around 6000 last I heard. Seems to be the places that test more have lower mortality rates. Whether that is faster treatment, isolating people and limiting spread, or by having more people with mild symptoms included in the total is hard to say. Probably a combination of all those things though. 

 

  At any rate, I'd rather have that data to be able to formulate a response. It may not change the final outcome, but I think it does help in the ability to respond to specific areas of need. We could have been sending resources to Washington a month ago, with the hope that we could have slowed the spread to other states. 

 

  It's a moot point though. We didn't even have enough test kits available to do what SK did. I'm sure there will be a critical look at why down the road, and how to respond better next time.  

[Steeleballz 7,550]

 

    National guard activated in NY for Coronavirus containment. 

 

  https://www.militarytimes.com/breaking-news/2020/03/10/new-york-national-guard-activated-to-combat-coronavirus-establish-containment-area/

[Voice of Reason 10,298]

Might be a good time to hunker down at home and read Dean Koontz's Eyes Of Darkness again.

[Dashinka 24,696]

1 hour ago, Steeleballz said:

 

   They can't even tell us how many people have been tested here, but estimates were around 6000 last I heard. Seems to be the places that test more have lower mortality rates. Whether that is faster treatment, isolating people and limiting spread, or by having more people with mild symptoms included in the total is hard to say. Probably a combination of all those things though. 

 

  At any rate, I'd rather have that data to be able to formulate a response. It may not change the final outcome, but I think it does help in the ability to respond to specific areas of need. We could have been sending resources to Washington a month ago, with the hope that we could have slowed the spread to other states. 

 

  It's a moot point though. We didn't even have enough test kits available to do what SK did. I'm sure there will be a critical look at why down the road, and how to respond better next time.  

What is the normal timeframe to ramp up a testing protocol for a new virus to be used nationwide, and is reliable?  Not making excuses, but from my experience it does take some time to get it right as we certainly don’t want a large number of false positives either.  

[90DayFinancier 910]

4 minutes ago, Dashinka said:

What is the normal timeframe to ramp up a testing protocol for a new virus to be used nationwide, and is reliable?  Not making excuses, but from my experience it does take some time to get it right as we certainly don’t want a large number of false positives either.  

The CDC acknowledged that there were missteps in the rollout. Not to point fingers but the rollout needs examination for lessons learned.

 

There is also an open question about why the WHO test pattern couldn't be leveraged.

 

 

Even yesterday, not all of the residents and staff at lifecare had been tested.

https://mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKBN20X01R

[Steeleballz 7,550]

18 minutes ago, Dashinka said:

What is the normal timeframe to ramp up a testing protocol for a new virus to be used nationwide, and is reliable?  Not making excuses, but from my experience it does take some time to get it right as we certainly don’t want a large number of false positives either.  

 

  I don't think there is a "normal" time frame, but they have shown they can do better with viruses like H1N1 and Zika. It is a cost/benefit analysis, and we haven't really had a comparable scenario so maybe the cost was deemed too high. Now as people fight over the last rolls of toilet paper, they may want to re-examine another look at the benefit side of being ready to respond to these situations.

 

  Next time around it might be avian influenza we are dealing with. All the toilet paper in the world won't help with that scenario. The initial response makes a world of difference. We don't need to blame anyone, but we do need to figure out how we can do better.

[Voice of Reason 10,298]

1 hour ago, Steeleballz said:

 

  I don't think there is a "normal" time frame, but they have shown they can do better with viruses like H1N1 and Zika. It is a cost/benefit analysis, and we haven't really had a comparable scenario so maybe the cost was deemed too high. Now as people fight over the last rolls of toilet paper, they may want to re-examine another look at the benefit side of being ready to respond to these situations.

 

  Next time around it might be avian influenza we are dealing with. All the toilet paper in the world won't help with that scenario. The initial response makes a world of difference. We don't need to blame anyone, but we do need to figure out how we can do better.

Toilet paper doesn't help the CV either, considering it is a respiratory illness with fever.  Not diarrhea.  

[Steeleballz 7,550]

1 hour ago, Voice of Reason said:

Toilet paper doesn't help the CV either, considering it is a respiratory illness with fever.  Not diarrhea.  

 

    You sure? People are filling their shopping carts with it.

 

   On the bright side, strawberries, blueberries, apples, oranges and banana's were all on sale! 

[Voice of Reason 10,298]

17 minutes ago, Steeleballz said:

 

    You sure? People are filling their shopping carts with it.

 

   On the bright side, strawberries, blueberries, apples, oranges and banana's were all on sale! 

I know.  Talking to my doc today, we were laughing about how silly people are.  (And they kept my appointment; I am hearing from friends that some doctor offices are rescheduling appointments for a couple of months from now?)

 

Then braved Costco only to find the shelves EMPTY of paper towels and TP.  As in not a single roll.  Laughed with the checkout guy about how silly this all is. (Pic enclosed)

Got our food and came home.  Hope I don’t have to do that again for a month.