Coronavirus’s spread in U.S. is ‘inevitable,’ CDC warns

[90DayFinancier 910]

11 minutes ago, Steeleballz said:

 

  Demand in this case means when a physician orders the test. So at this time they have been able to run all tests that have been ordered. Given the number of test kits available and the rate of spread, at some point there will not be enough kits unless another supplier emerged.

I am just trying to reconcile that statement with the fact that not all staff and residents at the original facility had been tested as of yesterday. Maybe they have by now. The press conference was 30 minutes long and quite technical in nature, but interesting.

[Steeleballz 7,550]

3 minutes ago, yuna628 said:

No. Fever not high enough. At my highest it was 100F (fever reducers barely did much). But they need it to be 100.4? I could have bypassed my doctor and tried urgent care to see about a flu test (would have been too late for tamiflu i guess) but I'm told they have to follow the strict guideline for the other test. This is really a strange illness. A lot of sweating, dry cough but nothing harsh.

 

  I think fever has been the most consistent diagnostic criteria, but until they start testing more people, it's hard to say for sure. Well probably get better information from South Korea, since they are testing anyone remotely symptomatic. 

 

  I'm glad you're starting to feel better!

[yuna628 9,696]

Just now, Voice of Reason said:

I realize they have to have SOME cutoff point for fevers, but what if a person isn't normally 98,6°?  My normal is around 96,8~97,1°

I guess the 100,4° as the norm for infections applies for cover-19 as well.

I rarely ever have a fever and run below normal. I usually joke and ask "how dead am I today?"

 

My sister is testing her temp every day since she is now working in the hospital and most everyone there is sick (even doctors are taking off for a while)... but so far she's just fine.

[yuna628 9,696]

6 minutes ago, Steeleballz said:

 

  I think fever has been the most consistent diagnostic criteria, but until they start testing more people, it's hard to say for sure. Well probably get better information from South Korea, since they are testing anyone remotely symptomatic. 

 

  I'm glad you're starting to feel better!

Me too!

 

Don't you think it's possible though that we will miss those with "mild" symptoms if we don't test those that are below 100.4? I'm hearing the test isn't always able to be conclusive either.

[Steeleballz 7,550]

5 minutes ago, Voice of Reason said:

I realize they have to have SOME cutoff point for fevers, but what if a person isn't normally 98,6°?  My normal is around 96,8~97,1°

I guess the 100,4° as the norm for infections applies for cover-19 as well.

 

  Medically it's a 2 degree F increase over starting temperature. Since most people don't consistently keep track of their base temperature, they just use the increase over mean body temperature as a cutoff. 

 

  It's very imperfect. My normal temperature is 96.7, so 98.7 would be a fever for me although I would likely get told nothing is wrong, and 100.7 would be a severe change, however they would probably still just send me home. It's always good to know what your normal temperature is . If you take it a few times, it's usually fairly consistent for most people.

[Steeleballz 7,550]

2 minutes ago, yuna628 said:

Me too!

 

Don't you think it's possible though that we will miss those with "mild" symptoms if we don't test those that are below 100.4? I'm hearing the test isn't always able to be conclusive either.

 

  I think they have missed a lot of cases. The number of positives starting to appear now seems to concur. The link I posted earlier postulates that the numbers situation in Washington now is likely comparable to Wuhan when we first heard of the outbreak there. 

 

  It's tough because they already know that 80% of people have mild symptoms so they should be testing more, but yet they have a critical shortage of test kits so they can't really do that. Failing to consider how easily it was for asymptomatic carrier(s) to spread was a major mistake. We are really behind the 8 ball on this. 

[Steeleballz 7,550]

18 minutes ago, 90DayFinancier said:

I am just trying to reconcile that statement with the fact that not all staff and residents at the original facility had been tested as of yesterday. Maybe they have by now. The press conference was 30 minutes long and quite technical in nature, but interesting.

 

    You don't have to reconcile it. It's a standard terminology. Demand means number of tests actually ordered. They are not referring not who want's one but doesn't meet the criteria. It means they are currently able to run every test that is submitted to their laboratory in a timely fashion without haveing to send any out to a different facility.

 

   In a traditional economic sense, obviously there are no where near enough kits to meet actual the demand for testing.

[Steeleballz 7,550]

23 minutes ago, yuna628 said:

Me too!

 

Don't you think it's possible though that we will miss those with "mild" symptoms if we don't test those that are below 100.4? I'm hearing the test isn't always able to be conclusive either.

 

  Also just looking at the number of deaths vs the number of positive tests here, the USA is showing a ~7% mortality rate. We know that almost certainly isn't the case. Because of the initial outbreak at the Lifecare facility, we are probably going to be slightly higher than what the current epidemiological data showed initially, but just based on statistics, we could extrapolate that there could be as many as a few hundred people in the USA who are positive but have not yet been tested.

[Neonred 3,600]

Seems to me to be a lot of hype and hysteria about testing.  Sure, its great historical info but what does it really change?  If you are sick enough to warrant testing you have likely already passed it on to countless others.  Regular flu or Covid-19, you need to be isolated to minimize the spread.  Got to wonder how many people got a little sick and had Covid but was a mild case.

 

What does testing change?  Anyone that is sick should take care of themselves in the same manner.

Edited March 7, 2020 by Neonred

[Voice of Reason 10,298]

5 minutes ago, Neonred said:

Seems to me to be a lot of hype and hysteria about testing.  Sure, its great historical info but what does it really change?  If you are sick enough to warrant testing you have likely already passed it on to countless others.  Regular flu or Covid-19, you need to be isolated to minimize the spread.  Got to wonder how many people got a little sick and had Covid but was a mild case.

 

What does testing change?  Anyone that is sick should take care of themselves in the same manor.

You stay in your manor, and I will stay in mine.  And let's BOTH mind our manners, eh?

[Neonred 3,600]

2 minutes ago, Voice of Reason said:

You stay in your manor, and I will stay in mine.  And let's BOTH mind our manners, eh?

OK, not thinking well today.  I think I have the flu....

[Dashinka 24,704]

4 minutes ago, Voice of Reason said:

You stay in your manor, and I will stay in mine.  And let's BOTH mind our manners, eh?

Trying to be a moderator?

[Steeleballz 7,550]

8 minutes ago, Neonred said:

Seems to me to be a lot of hype and hysteria about testing.  Sure, its great historical info but what does it really change?  If you are sick enough to warrant testing you have likely already passed it on to countless others.  Regular flu or Covid-19, you need to be isolated to minimize the spread.  Got to wonder how many people got a little sick and had Covid but was a mild case.

 

What does testing change?  Anyone that is sick should take care of themselves in the same manner.

 

  It's about mitigating the spread. If there is a 100% chance of everyone contracting this, we still don't want everyone contracting it in the next month. The health care system will not be able to respond, and we will see significantly higher mortality than would otherwise be the case, both for people with COVID-19, and for people with other health care issues who's treatment will be delayed.

 

  I think South Korea has the right idea - test everyone with any type of symptom. It's also optimistic (I guess) that increased testing in South Korea is showing a 0.5% mortality rate rather than 3% shown in China. 

[90DayFinancier 910]

11 minutes ago, Neonred said:

Seems to me to be a lot of hype and hysteria about testing.  Sure, its great historical info but what does it really change?  If you are sick enough to warrant testing you have likely already passed it on to countless others.  Regular flu or Covid-19, you need to be isolated to minimize the spread.  Got to wonder how many people got a little sick and had Covid but was a mild case.

 

What does testing change?  Anyone that is sick should take care of themselves in the same manner.

What does testing change?

1. Epidemiologists want the data to know how far, how fast and by what means the virus is transmitting. Reliable test data helps them to help plan the response.

2. Care providers need to understand whether they should be around patients or quarantined

3. If you have influenza A and not Covid-19 , you would want to know

I could go on, in my mind it is one of the most powerful tools in the kit.

 

[Voice of Reason 10,298]

8 minutes ago, Bill & Katya said:

Trying to be a moderator?

Naw, I just thought NB had hacked Neon's account.