Accuracy of VJ estimates

[Tacos 69]

Received an email from Visa Journey with an estimated date of approval for the NOA2 of 03/29/2020. Was wondering how accurate this might be if others can share their insight. NOA1 was 12/5/2020, and hope that our NOA2 isn’t done by 6/11/2020 as estimated by USCIS. 

[fayrog 33]

Mine was spot on. We received NOA2 during the estimate by VJ. The estimate shifted a few time based on updated timelines but we were approved during the last time frame they gave.

[AlaMike 231]

VERY accurate.

But again, these are estimates based on long term data. They may not reflect your actual timeline.

Patience is thing you MUST have with this process. 

[JonSeattle 202]

My NOA2 was about 5 weeks after I started getting the "any day now" emails from VJ. You can look through the older monthly progress reports to see the cycle of posts of despair and then joy of the late approvals.

[GinaCarterWebster 67]

My NOA1 was 10/11/19 from Jamaica.

 

My first VJ estimate was January 17, 2020 - it just kept postponing since then - I'm still waiting more than a month later now - while there are LOTS of approvals that were filed AFTER I did. 

 

I feel like the VJ estimate just gave me false hope and now I'm sorely disappointed with every passing day that it doesn't come.  There has been ZERO update on my case - have no idea if USCIS has even looked at it while other petitioners from countries that have much more political restrictions (China, Cuba, etc) AND filed near or after I did are being approved.  It just doesn't make any sense.  

[nasse_forelle 4]

14 minutes ago, GinaCarterWebster said:

My NOA1 was 10/11/19 from Jamaica.

 

My first VJ estimate was January 17, 2020 - it just kept postponing since then - I'm still waiting more than a month later now - while there are LOTS of approvals that were filed AFTER I did. 

 

I feel like the VJ estimate just gave me false hope and now I'm sorely disappointed with every passing day that it doesn't come.  There has been ZERO update on my case - have no idea if USCIS has even looked at it while other petitioners from countries that have much more political restrictions (China, Cuba, etc) AND filed near or after I did are being approved.  It just doesn't make any sense.  

usually takes around 3-6 months after NOA1. that's what i heard. u can probably call customer service and ask but not worth the effort tbh. all you can do now is wait until 6 -12 month mark; at that point, you can consider a writ of mandamus possibly. 

[GinaCarterWebster 67]

11 minutes ago, nasse_forelle said:

usually takes around 3-6 months after NOA1. that's what i heard. u can probably call customer service and ask but not worth the effort tbh. all you can do now is wait until 6 -12 month mark; at that point, you can consider a writ of mandamus possibly. 

I got that information from the USCIS website directly before I ever found VJ.   I feel like I got set up for disappointment using the VJ timeline - and now seeing everyone else on VJ who are getting approvals BEFORE me who applied AFTER me is just a defeating feeling.

[DaveAndAnastasia 2,092]

1 hour ago, GinaCarterWebster said:

I got that information from the USCIS website directly before I ever found VJ.   I feel like I got set up for disappointment using the VJ timeline - and now seeing everyone else on VJ who are getting approvals BEFORE me who applied AFTER me is just a defeating feeling.

Because USCIS does not process cases strictly in order of NOA1 date (and as frustrating as it seems when people 'after' you get approved first, it's better that way, because you don't want very slow cases delaying everyone), virtually everyone here has seen people with an earlier NOA1 date get approved before they did if they were paying attention. Even if you were relatively fast for around your date.

 

VJ timelines are based on averages. Some cases are faster than average, some slower, and some very much slower (they can't be very much faster, because there's just not enough time for that).

 

And if processing times are going up, the average is going to be low (conversely, if processing times are going down, the average is going to be high).

[GinaCarterWebster 67]

2 minutes ago, DaveAndAnastasia said:

Because USCIS does not process cases strictly in order of NOA1 date (and as frustrating as it seems when people 'after' you get approved first, it's better that way, because you don't want very slow cases delaying everyone), virtually everyone here has seen people with an earlier NOA1 date get approved before they did if they were paying attention. Even if you were relatively fast for around your date.

 

VJ timelines are based on averages. Some cases are faster than average, some slower, and some very much slower (they can't be very much faster, because there's just not enough time for that).

 

And if processing times are going up, the average is going to be low (conversely, if processing times are going down, the average is going to be high).

Thank you for your reply - it still doesn't help me feel better about waiting.

 

Of the "15 most recent approvals" page - 9 of them were submitted after my NOA1.  That doesn't seem like a good "average".

[DaveAndAnastasia 2,092]

5 minutes ago, GinaCarterWebster said:

Of the "15 most recent approvals" page - 9 of them were submitted after my NOA1.  That doesn't seem like a good "average".

 

It's almost two weeks past the end of your VJ estimated approval date range. If your VJ estimate was accurate for most cases near your NOA1 date, then you'd expect most cases approved now to have a more recent NOA1 date (both because processing times actually vary a lot from case to case and because processing times are trending up right now, you wouldn't expect all of them to be that way), and that seems to be the case. If your VJ estimate was low, you'd expect most recently approved cases to have been submitted before or on your NOA1 date (or not much after, since it's been two weeks).

 

The biggest thing that I think leads to people getting frustrated with VJ estimates is that VJ gives a fairly narrow estimated approval range (much more narrow than I think the data merits on cursory observation, though I haven't actually crunched the numbers), which doesn't give people a good idea of how much variance there is between cases. So they think "my case hasn't been approved yet and it's past the end of my VJ estimate, so VJ estimates are bad", rather than "my case is past the end of my VJ estimate, but X% (not sure, but I'd guess well over a 25%) of cases are approved more than two weeks after the end of that and most don't drag on too much beyond that, so it's nothing to worry about".

[GinaCarterWebster 67]

8 minutes ago, DaveAndAnastasia said:

 

It's almost two weeks past the end of your VJ estimated approval date range. If your VJ estimate was accurate for most cases near your NOA1 date, then you'd expect most cases approved now to have a more recent NOA1 date (both because processing times actually vary a lot from case to case and because processing times are trending up right now, you wouldn't expect all of them to be that way), and that seems to be the case. If your VJ estimate was low, you'd expect most recently approved cases to have been submitted before or on your NOA1 date (or not much after, since it's been two weeks).

 

The biggest thing that I think leads to people getting frustrated with VJ estimates is that VJ gives a fairly narrow estimated approval range (much more narrow than I think the data merits on cursory observation, though I haven't actually crunched the numbers), which doesn't give people a good idea of how much variance there is between cases. So they think "my case hasn't been approved yet and it's past the end of my VJ estimate, so VJ estimates are bad", rather than "my case is past the end of my VJ estimate, but X% (not sure, but I'd guess well over a 25%) of cases are approved more than two weeks after the end of that and most don't drag on too much beyond that, so it's nothing to worry about".

Actually, as I stated before my VJ estimated approval date was originally January 17 - so it's nearly 5 weeks past their projected date.  Thanks for defending the site when I was hoping for some emotional support.

 

I am HAPPY for those who have been approved.  Regardless of your explanation, I'm talking about emotions, anticipation and feeling disappointment in feeling set up by VJ.  You're arguing about how VJ's estimated are really more accurate than inaccurate. 

[DaveAndAnastasia 2,092]

3 minutes ago, GinaCarterWebster said:

Actually, as I stated before my VJ estimated approval date was originally January 17 - so it's nearly 5 weeks past their projected date.  Thanks for defending the site when I was hoping for some emotional support.

 

I am HAPPY for those who have been approved.  Regardless of your explanation, I'm talking about emotions, anticipation and feeling disappointment in feeling set up by VJ.  You're arguing about how VJ's estimated are really more accurate than inaccurate. 

I'm trying to explain how statistics work so people don't feel disappointed when their case takes longer than VJ's estimate (and doing a less than great job, apparently).

[GinaCarterWebster 67]

10 minutes ago, DaveAndAnastasia said:

I'm trying to explain how statistics work so people don't feel disappointed when their case takes longer than VJ's estimate (and doing a less than great job, apparently).

I appreciate your attempts.  I am aware of how statistics work, which is why I am disappointed.  I don't understand why clearly my application is taking longer.  No word from USCIS that it has even been reviewed other than the acceptance date to give me any hope in the matter.  Every day that there is NO news on my case and someone else is approved - some are even approved before the anticipated estimated date -  feels cruel and makes me think I've done something gravely wrong on the application.   

 

Hopefully others who see this won't rely on or anticipate VJ's statistics being accurate as much as I did and can save themselves the heartache. 

[SalishSea 17,829]

3 hours ago, GinaCarterWebster said:

feel like the VJ estimate just gave me false hope and now I'm sorely disappointed with every passing day that it doesn't come. 

You do realize that this is a free website, not affiliated with US immigration in any way, and that the estimates are based only on info provided by members?

 

In 2018, I-129f petitions were taking >6 months for approval.  It is all relative.  Might want to temper your expectations a bit.

Edited February 20, 2020 by Jorgedig

[Ontarkie 14,225]

~~MOved to Site Related Discussion, from K1 P&P - the OP is asking about a feature.~~