Visitors Visa. 23 yrs old, unemployed

[MaleAlpha 314]

1 hour ago, missileman said:

No, it is not chance based.......they have all the information they need on the application.......and additional documentation (if they choose to review it).  You think they just flip a coin or something?

Many qualified people are denied visas and less qualified people are given visas. It's mostly the consular officials intuition of what they make of an applicant's story. If it's not a chance it means that everyone with the same information and answers on a DS-160 form will be guaranteed a visa 100%..but you know that is far from the truth. Hence why it's a 50/50 chance. 

Edited January 22, 2020 by MaleAlpha

[Boiler 45,912]

2 minutes ago, MaleAlpha said:

Many qualified people are denied visas and less qualified people are given visas. It's mostly the consular officials intuition of what they make of an applicant's story. If it's not a chance it means that everyone with the same information and answers on a DS-160 form will be guaranteed a visa 100%..but you know that is far from the truth. Hence why it's a 50/50 chance. 

So 50/50 the first time, if refused apply again and now you are up to 75%, refused again and apply and now you are up to 87.5% Again 93 3/4% And so on.

 

So if you say you should be prepared to apply 6 times you will be pretty much guaranteed it.

[Marieke H 2,522]

1 minute ago, MaleAlpha said:

Many qualified people are denied visas and less qualified people are given visas. It's mostly the consular officials intuition of what they make of an applicant's story. If it's not a chance it means that everyone with the same information and answers on a DS-160 form will be guaranteed a visa 100%..but you know that is far from the truth. Hence why it's a 50/50 chance. 

That's not how chance works... you say it's a 50% chance because it's not 100% chance. As a research analyst, I can tell you that that makes no sense at all.

 

Plus, you don't decide who is qualified. If the CO determines someone qualified, they approve the visa.

[MaleAlpha 314]

8 minutes ago, Boiler said:

So 50/50 the first time, if refused apply again and now you are up to 75%, refused again and apply and now you are up to 87.5% Again 93 3/4% And so on.

 

So if you say you should be prepared to apply 6 times you will be pretty much guaranteed it.

Your analogy doesn't make sense. 50/50 chance means you have an equal probability of being denied as much as being approved. It differs from Country to Country but it's largely base don the consular official's intuition and what they make of your case/story etc. 

 

If you're saying it's not chance based, it means that everyone with the same story or case details will have the same outcome 100%. That is how a non-chance based statistical model works. And you know that's very far from the truth when it comes to tourist visas especially from non VWP countries.

[Boiler 45,912]

1 minute ago, MaleAlpha said:

Your analogy doesn't make sense. 50/50 chance means you have an equal probability of being denied as much as being approved. It differs from Country to Country but it's largely base don the consular official's intuition and what they make of your case/story etc. 

 

If you're saying it's not chance based, it means that everyone with the same story or case details will have the same outcome 100%. That is how a non-chance based statistical model works. And you know that's very far from the truth when it comes to tourist visas especially from non VWP countries.

50/50 is the same as flipping a coin, heads or tails, so let us say heads is an approved visa you just need to keep flipping it until you get a heads, so the question is how many times you need to apply?

[MaleAlpha 314]

28 minutes ago, Marieke H said:

That's not how chance works... you say it's a 50% chance because it's not 100% chance. As a research analyst, I can tell you that that makes no sense at all.

 

Plus, you don't decide who is qualified. If the CO determines someone qualified, they approve the visa.

Your being a research analyst means nothing. I have a masters in Mathematics if you care so much about credentials.

 

By your analogy - if it's not chance based, the outcome for everyone with the same story/case details etc. should be same 100%. That's if it's completely not based on chance. If you know your statistics, you will know that.

Edited January 22, 2020 by MaleAlpha

[MaleAlpha 314]

3 minutes ago, Boiler said:

50/50 is the same as flipping a coin, heads or tails, so let us say heads is an approved visa you just need to keep flipping it until you get a heads, so the question is how many times you need to apply?

OK Let's approach it from a different angle.

 

When I talked about chance, I was referring to it being based on the intuition of the consular official's intuition aka discretion. Basically, 2 people can have the same application details, story line etc. and yet the outcomes will be different - one may get the visa. one may not. That is how discretion works and that creates the premise for the chance.

 

If not, they would have have fed the data into a model and that model will generate a consistent outcome for the same data fed into it (That by the way is the basis of machine learning) but instead they use humans who are given guidelines and decide on what to do by their will (here's where the probability comes in) based on what they think of an applicant's case. 

[Boiler 45,912]

1 minute ago, MaleAlpha said:

OK Let's approach it from a different angle.

 

When I talked about chance, I was referring to it being based on the intuition of the consular official's intuition aka discretion. Basically, 2 people can have the same application details, story line etc. and yet the outcomes will be different - one may get the visa. one may not. That is how discretion works and that creates the premise for the chance.

 

If not, they would have have fed the data into a model and that model will generate a consistent outcome for the same data fed into it (That by the way is the basis of machine learning) but instead they use humans who are given guidelines and decide on what to do by their will (here's where the probability comes in) based on what they think of an applicant's case. 

There are two outcomes, as has been repeatedly stated this is not other than at the margins a chanced based process, if it was you just keep flipping the coin until you are approved.

 

The human variable is obviously a component, however not a factor that is relevant in most cases.

 

By definition no two cases are the same, so there can be no direct comparison. Obvious we see approvals here which seem odd, we do not have the data to really judge, so we add out subjective assessment on top.

[MaleAlpha 314]

1 minute ago, Boiler said:

There are two outcomes, as has been repeatedly stated this is not other than at the margins a chanced based process, if it was you just keep flipping the coin until you are approved.

 

The human variable is obviously a component, however not a factor that is relevant in most cases.

 

By definition no two cases are the same, so there can be no direct comparison. Obvious we see approvals here which seem odd, we do not have the data to really judge, so we add out subjective assessment on top.

The line I highlighted in your statement is what creates the chance and contradicts everything you've been trying to prove. Again and again, if there wasn't that variable, all outcomes would be the same. Variability is the only thing that differentiates a chance based model from one without. Your coin-flipping analogy is so rudimentary that it's almost ridiculous. We're talking about statistics.

 

Look up Laplace's demon (and it's relationship to Quantum mechanics). You will understand chance and non-chance models better.

[Boiler 45,912]

So it is a 50/50 shot and you just need to keep on applying. The circumstances are irrelevant, good to know.

 

We need to make this a sticky, probably need to advise the CO's as well.

[Ontarkie 14,378]

~~That is enough with derailing this thread. Stick to the OP's questions.~~

[SusieQQQ 11,587]

1 hour ago, MaleAlpha said:

Many qualified people are denied visas and less qualified people are given visas. It's mostly the consular officials intuition of what they make of an applicant's story. If it's not a chance it means that everyone with the same information and answers on a DS-160 form will be guaranteed a visa 100%..but you know that is far from the truth. Hence why it's a 50/50 chance. 

By your definition I should have been refused for at least one of the 4 tourist visas I got from the US. My 4/4 hit rate suggests you are wrong. 
 

Edit: sorry ontarkie, posted before I saw your note 

Edited January 22, 2020 by SusieQQQ
Apology

[Amadia 711]

Your Canadian paperwork for school has no bearing on your US tourist visa application.

[MaleAlpha 314]

48 minutes ago, SusieQQQ said:

By your definition I should have been refused for at least one of the 4 tourist visas I got from the US. My 4/4 hit rate suggests you are wrong. 
 

Edit: sorry ontarkie, posted before I saw your note 

You clearly don't understand chance but I will no longer derail from the original thread so I rest my case.

Edited January 22, 2020 by MaleAlpha

[SusieQQQ 11,587]

43 minutes ago, MaleAlpha said:

You clearly don't understand chance but I will no longer derail from the original thread so I rest my case.

It’s clearly you who don’t understand chance, and more to the point and back on topic, you clearly don’t understand what it takes to get a tourist visa approved or denied. I would like to suggest that with 4 approvals, including one where I had very weak ties (just a one year visa granted in that case), one where I had better but not great ties (one year again) as well as two with very good ties (ten years each, the second even while I had an approved I130 in progress), I think I do actually understand what it takes to get a visa approved. So I can definitely say that both country history and ties matter. “Chance” doesn’t.

Edited January 22, 2020 by SusieQQQ