Yale shocker: 29.5 million illegal immigrants, 3X higher than Census number

[Voice of Reason 10,298]

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/washington-secrets/yale-shocker-29-5-million-illegal-immigrants-3x-higher-than-census-number

 

 

[Nature Boy 2.0 8,378]

who woulda thunk, You said illegal. I am triggered. A person cant be illegal 

 

I recorded a new show called the Deputy. It looked very promising. In the opening scene , the star, soon to be sheriff, was telling his superiors. Yes he warned the locals about the ICE raid. He went on to say he was sworn to protect all people, he didn't care how they got here, but they were here.

I immediately deleted the show and canceled upcoming recordings. I don't need Hollywood's absurd open borders propaganda rammed down my throat. 

 

 

[Steeleballz 7,550]

 

    An accurate title would be there is a 5% statistical chance that there are 29.5 million illegal immigrants in the USA. The chance that there are 29.5 million illegal immigrants is just as likely as there are 16.7 million. An article claiming there are 16.7 million illegal immigrants would be just as inaccurate as this one.

 

    Not sure if the Washington Examiner doesn't understand statistical analysis or if they were just intent on going for shock value, but the actual number the study concluded was 22.1 million, the mean value of the analyses. It would have been better if they went for credibility here and used the correct figure. It's still a pretty big number. 

 

  

[Steeleballz 7,550]

1 hour ago, Nature Boy 2.0 said:

who woulda thunk, You said illegal. I am triggered. A person cant be illegal 

 

I recorded a new show called the Deputy. It looked very promising. In the opening scene , the star, soon to be sheriff, was telling his superiors. Yes he warned the locals about the ICE raid. He went on to say he was sworn to protect all people, he didn't care how they got here, but they were here.

I immediately deleted the show and canceled upcoming recordings. I don't need Hollywood's absurd open borders propaganda rammed down my throat. 

 

 

 

   An online search of current numbers come up with an estimate of ~12 million. I remember when I was more involved with the immigration process, (back before the internet was really what it is today), you would always hear estimates in the range of 20+ million. That seems to be in line with the Yale study. 

[Voice of Reason 10,298]

43 minutes ago, Steeleballz said:

 

   An online search of current numbers come up with an estimate of ~12 million. I remember when I was more involved with the immigration process, (back before the internet was really what it is today), you would always hear estimates in the range of 20+ million. That seems to be in line with the Yale study. 

I’ve heard 10-12 million for many years now.  Do these estimates not take into account that thousands try to cross daily?  I have believed for some time now that the number of illegal aliens is over 20 million.  But we will likely never know the actual number.

Edited January 11, 2020 by ALFKAD

[Nature Boy 2.0 8,378]

3 hours ago, Steeleballz said:

 

    An accurate title would be there is a 5% statistical chance that there are 29.5 million illegal immigrants in the USA. The chance that there are 29.5 million illegal immigrants is just as likely as there are 16.7 million. An article claiming there are 16.7 million illegal immigrants would be just as inaccurate as this one.

 

    Not sure if the Washington Examiner doesn't understand statistical analysis or if they were just intent on going for shock value, but the actual number the study concluded was 22.1 million, the mean value of the analyses. It would have been better if they went for credibility here and used the correct figure. It's still a pretty big number. 

 

  

really does not matter. If there is 3 that is 3 too many 

[Burnt Reynolds 5,058]

"All models are wrong, some are useful" --George Box

 

I've basically deleted three long spiels that people likely wouldn't read anyways about modeling, but to be brief, while I strongly believe the number of illegals in the US is much higher than 11 million, the models and simulations used in this study illustrate why this stuff is better served for a dumpster bin or educating on modeling, and not for answers to important issues. But I've come to terms with the fact that people will see what they want to see regardless.

[Dashinka 24,745]

5 hours ago, Steeleballz said:

 

    An accurate title would be there is a 5% statistical chance that there are 29.5 million illegal immigrants in the USA. The chance that there are 29.5 million illegal immigrants is just as likely as there are 16.7 million. An article claiming there are 16.7 million illegal immigrants would be just as inaccurate as this one.

 

    Not sure if the Washington Examiner doesn't understand statistical analysis or if they were just intent on going for shock value, but the actual number the study concluded was 22.1 million, the mean value of the analyses. It would have been better if they went for credibility here and used the correct figure. It's still a pretty big number. 

 

  

Party pooper!

[Dashinka 24,745]

1 hour ago, Burnt Reynolds said:

"All models are wrong, some are useful" --George Box

 

I've basically deleted three long spiels that people likely wouldn't read anyways about modeling, but to be brief, while I strongly believe the number of illegals in the US is much higher than 11 million, the models and simulations used in this study illustrate why this stuff is better served for a dumpster bin or educating on modeling, and not for answers to important issues. But I've come to terms with the fact that people will see what they want to see regardless.

Makes one wonder about about the models being used by climatologists.

[Burnt Reynolds 5,058]

48 minutes ago, Bill & Katya said:

Makes one wonder about about the models being used by climatologists.

Doesn't make me wonder. Their models are wrong all the time as well. The only way to think of them as factual is either to: 1) Pretend model world is the real world, which it isn't, or 2) Reinterpret data, whether outright fudging data (which is now being done in the climate discussion), or by changing scales of measurement (interval data eg time, temperature, etc.), a common reframing bias to give the perception of consistency, which tells you what this is all about -- perception, not facts. If people perceive it to be true, they are more willing to comply, but they also attempt to add social/cognitive pressures, which is why the desperate attempt to exaggerate "consensus". It's all about wrecking ball, hence the hijacking of institutions and targeting things people tend to trust.

 

The socialization of science is one of the key accomplishments of postmodernism (one of the key similarities between the left and neoliberals), move away from empirical, from factual, make truth or fact nothing more than a social construct, which should sound familiar on a number of science related topics.

Edited January 11, 2020 by Burnt Reynolds

[Steeleballz 7,550]

1 hour ago, Bill & Katya said:

Party pooper!

 

  I find misrepresented facts in news media to be on the same level of annoyance as getting news about the royal family.

[Voice of Reason 10,298]

38 minutes ago, Steeleballz said:

 

  I find misrepresented facts in news media to be on the same level of annoyance as getting news about the royal family.

While I agree with you on the ridiculosity of the data, the reason I posted this was because 11 million makes about as much sense at 29 million.

[Cyberfx1024 7,980]

9 hours ago, Nature Boy 2.0 said:

who woulda thunk, You said illegal. I am triggered. A person cant be illegal 

 

I recorded a new show called the Deputy. It looked very promising. In the opening scene , the star, soon to be sheriff, was telling his superiors. Yes he warned the locals about the ICE raid. He went on to say he was sworn to protect all people, he didn't care how they got here, but they were here.

I immediately deleted the show and canceled upcoming recordings. I don't need Hollywood's absurd open borders propaganda rammed down my throat. 

I had high hopes for that show but I guess I am glad I haven't watched it yet

[TBoneTX 45,971]

7 hours ago, Steeleballz said:

I find misrepresented facts in news media to be on the same level of annoyance as getting news about the royal family.

I, too, wish to P on their values.

Edited January 12, 2020 by TBoneTX

[TBoneTX 45,971]

8 hours ago, Burnt Reynolds said:

The socialization of science is one of the key accomplishments of postmodernism (one of the key similarities between the left and neoliberals), move away from empirical, from factual, make truth or fact nothing more than a social construct, which should sound familiar on a number of science related topics.

"Like, whatever, du-u-u-de."

Edited January 12, 2020 by TBoneTX